Why Gary Johnson will steal more votes from Clinton than Trump

Red Alert Politics ^ | May 31, 2016 | Ron Meyer

[2ndDivisionVet]

Now that we know former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson is going to be the Libertarian Party nominee after this weekend’s convention, much of the talk has centered around how Johnson could be a spoiler for Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton.

Conventional wisdom would say that Libertarians and Republicans have a closer ideology than Libertarians and Democrats, and therefore, conservatives dissatisfied with Trump will vote for Johnson. The problem with this conventional wisdom is that 2016 isn’t conventional, and the candidates representing their parties don’t hold the usual ideologies of their parties.

At this point, it appears there are more Sanders supporters abandoning Clinton for Johnson than conservatives who are abandoning Trump for Johnson.

A recent Fox News poll analyzed in our story “From #FeelTheBern to #FeelTheJohnson? Gary Johnson sees huge jump in new poll,” shows that many millennial Democrats say they would support Johnson over Clinton or Trump. 18 percent of young voters support Johnson, 40 percent support Clinton, and 31 percent support Trump. Trump has gained millennial support over time, while Clinton is greatly underperforming with a key component of the Democrat base.

Why would young supporters of a socialist candidate vote for a libertarian over Clinton?

First, it’s important to remember that it isn’t all Sanders supporters who will support Johnson. Hardcore socialists will likely vote Green Party or stay home. But, most Sanders supporters aren’t ideological socialists. Fewer than 20 percent of millennials identify as socialists, yet usually more than 60 percent of millennials support Sanders.

This 40+ percent of millennials who are non-ideological Sanders supporters are your average millennials. They lean left on social issues, want a candidate with a vision for dramatic change, and are tired of war in the Middle East.

Johnson has more in common with these millennials than he does with conservatives who are dissatisfied with Trump.

Johnson is pro-choice and supports gay marriage, including forcing businesses to serve gay couples. Johnson believes “global warming is man-caused.” Johnson believes in marijuana legalization. Johnson is a non-interventionist on foreign policy, bordering on anti-war.

All of these positions appeal to millennial Sanders supporters — and scare off many of the anti-Trump Republicans.

Anti-Trump Republicans, who are diminishing in the polls every day, are largely made up of social conservatives and neo-conservatives. They may be a few libertarian-leaning Republicans too, but the poll show this group who would support Johnson isn’t very large.

Social conservatives would never support Johnson over Trump, because despite Trump’s checkered past, Johnson is still a current social liberal on life and marriage. Neo-conservatives (like Bill Kristol and George W. Bush types) would never support Johnson because of his foreign policy. Trump, while far from perfect, is ideologically closer to both groups.

Conversely, Johnson is ideologically closer to many Sanders supporters than Clinton. Clinton has supported every intervention into the Middle East for the last 15 years, while Johnson has largely opposed foreign wars. Clinton opposes marijuana legalization. She was slow to support gay marriage, only flip-flopping when forced by politics. She is also seen as much less genuine than Johnson.

Sanders supporters are also furious with Clinton and the Democrat party — to the point of rumored riots at the DNC convention in Philadelphia. At the Nevada convention, they booed Sen. Barbara Boxer off the stage and caused an uproar. Polls show as many as 45 percent of Sanders supporters would never support Clinton. Only 50 percent say they’ll back Clinton over Trump.

For all these reasons, we should expect Johnson to continue to climb in the polls, but this gain will primarily come from the disgruntled younger base of the Democrat Party, not from #NeverTrump Republicans.

[jospehm20]

I have been thinking since Johnson announced Weld as his running mate that even though both are former republican governors, they are both closer to the democrat wing of the uniparty than the GOP. They sure as hell are not what I consider libertarian.

[patriot08]

. Think of all the thousands and thousands of ‘refugees’ (muslim colonists, jihadists) Obama has imported and is still importing, and distributing all across America against our will. These people are colonists who hope to take over America and force it under Islam- just as the Koran commands. We are becoming another Europe- being colonized.

Think about all the Mexican, S American criminal invaders (with a proven mix of muslims) that have flooded across our borders because Obama refuses to seal it, and refuses to enforce our immigration laws.

If Donald does just one thing (and he will); seal the border, then he is worth more than most modern day presidents we have had.

Sealing the border is the most important thing we need done right now- as well as stopping the flood of muslim colonists. It MUST be done to keep or values, our way of life, our religions and to keep America America- the greatest country the world has ever known. America cannot be a country without borders.

Donald will surely run into problems building a wall like lawsuits and other stumbling blocks from the rats, and it may take a long time to get it done. But in the meantime, he WILL put enough guards on the border to keep the criminal invaders out, and he will see that our immigration laws are enforced- something Obama has refused to do, leaving the border states powerless to stop the flood of criminal invaders (and future rat voters)

The rats will cheat, use voter fraud and every trick in the dirty rat book. They will stoop to anything to avoid Donald stepping in to try to undo the damage Obama has done.

Stay home, refuse to vote, vote ‘write in’ or third party and it’s a vote for Hillary.

We MUST put aside our anger, our differences, unite and make this the biggest Republican voter turn out in history- or it’s Hillary to continue our destruction.

Give this some thought. This is the most important election of our lifetime.

[tellw]

Gary Johnson is ugly and sad.

[johnthebaptistmoore]

The same is true with the Green Party.

[NoLibZone]

And Weld is anti gun.

Gov. William F. Weld

With voters growing increasingly fearful of gunfire on the streets, Gov. William F. Weld of Massachusetts reversed course this week and proposed some of the most stringent gun control laws in the country.

http://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/01/us/in-shift-massachusetts-governor-backs-gun-law.html