Skip to comments.Why Gary Johnson will steal more votes from Clinton than Trump
Posted on 05/31/2016 2:43:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Now that we know former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson is going to be the Libertarian Party nominee after this weekends convention, much of the talk has centered around how Johnson could be a spoiler for Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton.
Conventional wisdom would say that Libertarians and Republicans have a closer ideology than Libertarians and Democrats, and therefore, conservatives dissatisfied with Trump will vote for Johnson. The problem with this conventional wisdom is that 2016 isnt conventional, and the candidates representing their parties dont hold the usual ideologies of their parties.
At this point, it appears there are more Sanders supporters abandoning Clinton for Johnson than conservatives who are abandoning Trump for Johnson.
A recent Fox News poll analyzed in our story From #FeelTheBern to #FeelTheJohnson? Gary Johnson sees huge jump in new poll, shows that many millennial Democrats say they would support Johnson over Clinton or Trump. 18 percent of young voters support Johnson, 40 percent support Clinton, and 31 percent support Trump. Trump has gained millennial support over time, while Clinton is greatly underperforming with a key component of the Democrat base.
Why would young supporters of a socialist candidate vote for a libertarian over Clinton?
First, its important to remember that it isnt all Sanders supporters who will support Johnson. Hardcore socialists will likely vote Green Party or stay home. But, most Sanders supporters arent ideological socialists. Fewer than 20 percent of millennials identify as socialists, yet usually more than 60 percent of millennials support Sanders.
This 40+ percent of millennials who are non-ideological Sanders supporters are your average millennials. They lean left on social issues, want a candidate with a vision for dramatic change, and are tired of war in the Middle East.
Johnson has more in common with these millennials than he does with conservatives who are dissatisfied with Trump.
Johnson is pro-choice and supports gay marriage, including forcing businesses to serve gay couples. Johnson believes global warming is man-caused. Johnson believes in marijuana legalization. Johnson is a non-interventionist on foreign policy, bordering on anti-war.
All of these positions appeal to millennial Sanders supporters and scare off many of the anti-Trump Republicans.
Anti-Trump Republicans, who are diminishing in the polls every day, are largely made up of social conservatives and neo-conservatives. They may be a few libertarian-leaning Republicans too, but the poll show this group who would support Johnson isnt very large.
Social conservatives would never support Johnson over Trump, because despite Trumps checkered past, Johnson is still a current social liberal on life and marriage. Neo-conservatives (like Bill Kristol and George W. Bush types) would never support Johnson because of his foreign policy. Trump, while far from perfect, is ideologically closer to both groups.
Conversely, Johnson is ideologically closer to many Sanders supporters than Clinton. Clinton has supported every intervention into the Middle East for the last 15 years, while Johnson has largely opposed foreign wars. Clinton opposes marijuana legalization. She was slow to support gay marriage, only flip-flopping when forced by politics. She is also seen as much less genuine than Johnson.
Sanders supporters are also furious with Clinton and the Democrat party to the point of rumored riots at the DNC convention in Philadelphia. At the Nevada convention, they booed Sen. Barbara Boxer off the stage and caused an uproar. Polls show as many as 45 percent of Sanders supporters would never support Clinton. Only 50 percent say theyll back Clinton over Trump.
For all these reasons, we should expect Johnson to continue to climb in the polls, but this gain will primarily come from the disgruntled younger base of the Democrat Party, not from #NeverTrump Republicans.
How many votes is David French going to steal? /sarc
Myth that Johnson is an anti-war noninterventionist. His FP is fairly status quo oriented:
“Fighting and defeating ISIS wherever they are is not ‘intervention’. It is stopping violent jihadists whose stated objectives are to kill Americans, wipe Israel off the map and destroy the very freedoms including religious ones upon which our nation is founded. It is protecting us from those who would and are doing us harm.”
He’s certainly no ‘better’ than Trump, and likely worse from a Libertarian POV as I doubt he understands the danger of internationalist entanglements; he is no America-firster.
I take it he’s some kind of neoconservative?
Well, this article contains what has to be about the worst tag of all time:
Votes for Johnson are not stolen votes, they are votes that belong to Johnson.
Most likely they wouldn't.
Neo-conservatives (like Bill Kristol and George W. Bush types) would never support Johnson because of his foreign policy. Trump, while far from perfect, is ideologically closer to both groups.
Not necessarily. Neocons just want to cast a protest vote, and the anti-Trump third party candidate who could get the most votes might win their support. In other words, they'd be happier if Gary Johnson got over 3% or over 5% than if their own guy couldn't crack 1%.
It's about spite and punishment for them. They wouldn't be unhappy with Hillary in the White House. And they reckon that Johnson and Weld doing okay at the polls (3-5%) would do less to bring about an isolationist Trend than Trump winning would.
Virginia poll: http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/virginia-election-poll052016/
Compares with and without Johnson.
Libertarians take more from Trump than from Clinton.
1 point from Hillary but 3 points from Trump.
“The New Johnson”....It’s short, sweet, and everyone wants to see it.
4 Johnson much of his rise in popularity will depend on how well he gets his message out.
Dont see the MSM giving him any help either
MSM will be helping Johnson immensely, they need him as a spoiler candidate. And Johnson only speaks negatively about Trump, never Hillary. He’s got Koch backers.
LOL, that’s why the Dems are pushing for a 3rd Party run by a Republican. Don’t kid yourself, there will be a lot of Democrat money going to any 3rd party run by a Republican.`The end justifies the means when it comes to the Dems.
Hm...didnt know that... So this article is wrong?
I'd want to see the poll. If Ted Cruz is your idea of a "libertarian-leaning Republican" I guess so, but Johnson did best last time in very Republican western rural states and he'll likely pick up some votes from those states this time as well.
Sure, with Weld on the ticket Johnson is aiming most at social liberals who might otherwise vote Democrat. He'll pick up votes in liberal states like John Anderson did in 1980, but if Trump stumbles he'll also get some support in the west.
“This 40+ percent of millennials who are non-ideological Sanders supporters are your average millennials. They lean left on social issues, want a candidate with a vision for dramatic change, and are tired of war in the Middle East.”
In other words, goofball young’uns with nothing at stake but are willing to sacrifice some part of their bathroom priveleges to make the country a better place.
G_d help us.
All three of them.
So it’d appear, given his statements on that link.
Realistically, he’s just another politician with no coherent ideology.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.