Lyin' Ted should follow his own words...
Posted on 04/22/2016 2:32:50 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The math is certain, it's time to move on to fighting Hillary.
The current real numbers are just fine, Trump was expected to win New York, optimistic news I had received not with standing. Yes Trump got 90 delegates. Yes he did well. Yes Kasich got 5 delegates, his first in how long? Yes yes and yes. And No I am not even bothered.
Real Numbers: Cruz 696 Delegates to Trumps 815 Delegates.
Whats left now?
California 172 Indiana 57 New Jersey 51 Washington 44 Maryland 38 Nebraska 36 West Virginia 34 South Dakota 29 Connecticut 28 Oregon 28 Montana 27 New Mexico 24 Rhode Island 19 Pennsylvania 17 +54
Trump needs to get 422 delegates, out of that list.
He loses Montana in full, the 54 in Pennsylvania are gone, Oregon is a wipe for him (he gets 3-6), Washington is already soured to him (maybe 4-6 there), Indiana is looking like Ted Cruz, S. Dakota is Ted Cruz, no one will give Nebraska to Trump, New Mexico is unlikely Trump… These “losses” (we will leave the gains in play) add up to 283 of 658, leaving 337 delegates left for Trump to try to win. Look he ain’t taking all of California either, even if he gets 120 out of there he loses 52 more, which means he comes up short by 137 missing delegates.
Yes you read that correct, even if we tilt California for Trump he cannot win, he misses by 137 delegates. Even if he wins three small States, or Indiana and a medium State, he comes up missing by far too much.
Mathematically Trump has been out for a while, it is a Contested Convention.
In fact it is worse than that for Donald Trump because he messed up in West Virginia and automatically loses 3 delegates minimum there, he started his campaign office in California so late that a number of us pundits think he cannot get delegates for all the Congressional Districts there, and Rhode Island is a proportional election.
Trump cannot get enough delegates from the remaining States even if he picks up 2 major surprise wins.
Ted Cruz has seen an additional bunch of Delegates arrive with his securing S. Carolina for sure (while not fully voted yet you can take this to the bank), Nebraska voted their delegates for Cruz, and Indiana is a done deal according to Party Insiders. Those 54 in Pennsylvania are rumored to be in contention, but not for Trump. Apparently Kasich is making a big play there. However it still hurts Trump significantly, leaving him no way to continue on. One of the most surprising developments was Florida and New Jersey. Rubio had his team walk over everyone in Florida, those 99 delegates are his. In New Jersey Christie is actually strong-arming the leadership in a potentially illegal manner, and is securing almost all of the slates there. Yes you read those right, they secured their home States and not for Trump.
However I reiterate, Trump has already lost the challenge to get to 1237 delegates. There is NO CHANCE OF A TRUMP NOMINATION.
Current Pledged Delegates for Cruz is estimated by me to be at 865 delegates.
Where does Ted Cruz secure the remaining delegates? He needs 372 to win the convention on 2nd or 3rd ticket (vote): Oregon 28 Oklahoma 43 California (projected) 100 South Dakota 29 Pennsylvania (Possible Kasich) 54 Arkansas 40 Kansas 40 Kentucky 46 Montana 27
The list goes on. We have only really gotten a bit over half way in the actual positions. Ted Cruz is the champion here, no other is coming close currently. There is well in excess of 450 delegates I deem “likely” to “Guaranteed” for Ted Cruz. Due to the machinations of Kasich, Rubio, and Christie the establishment has secured 235 delegates already.
This means when Ted Cruz gets 137 more delegates to pledge to him that Trump is mathematically out there as well without offering one of them (Not Rubio) the Vice Presidency, and he is 222 delegates being pledged for Ted Cruz to be guaranteed mathematically eliminated in a contested convention.
The odds of Trump getting the nomination is now under 1% in my view.
Yes that statement is correct. Trump cannot turn the tide in enough States, his efforts in New Mexico are also showing lagging (he had to strong arm them to extend the time he needs to search for people to be potential delegates) and he cannot win so many pledges in an obvious hostile venue in the remaining time. Trump is done.
So, here I am, the first of the major and minor Statisticians, I am calling the election formally for Ted Cruz. Yes this is my formal announcement. I was going to wait until April 27th, but the nature of the States has been provided to me by various sources, and I am confident that even with two major upsets that Trump is not going to win.
Congratulations Ted Cruz for winning the Republican Nomination for President.
TEAM CRUZ: "POTTIES!"
VOTERS: "We also have legitimate fears about the increasing Islamification of America, and the cheerful acceptance of creeping Sharia by both parties."
TEAM CRUZ: "SEX TOYS!"
VOTERS: "Oh, for -- ! You're not even really a serious campaign, are you? Be honest, now."
TEAM CRUZ: "Ted Cruz has already won the Presidency! WOOT WOOT!!!"
You'd have to be mad of stone not to laugh, really, by this point. ;)
Lyin' Ted should follow his own words...
satire
He did!! That would be great. Those Rubio delegates would seal the deal without having to deal with the "insider" strategies of Cruz and Kasich.
“A lot of those have already been reapportioned because he suspended his campaign. You missed that?”
Wrong. It depends on the rules of the various states. Most are still bound as long as their candidate has only suspended, instead of withdrawn from the campaign. Not one of the 17 candidates has withdrawn yet. None of the delegates has been reapportioned, and none of them is being counted in Trump’s bound delegate total.
Nothing in the GOP Platform that Trump advocates changing realistically changes how the GOP will govern.
I have more respect for Bagdad Bob.
I think the Red State delegate count assumes that Cruz will poach a significant amount delegates before the convention.
I think the Red State delegate count assumes that Michelob is an entree. ;)
Corker Bill and TPA logic
Then I guess the Carolina Panthers won the Super Bowl and the Mets won the World Series.
This, unfortunately, is true.
The Republican Party has been selling out on every single matter of principle for the last twenty-five years. Nothing that Trump advocates will change that. We will continue to sell out on every single matter of principle with Trump as President.
Call me crazy, but I was kind of hoping for something better.
I was kind of hoping for a President who would stand firm on the promises made in the Republican Platform. I was hoping for a principled conservative who would implement a conservative program.
Clearly, that man is not Donald Trump. As you so pointed out, nothing that Trump advocates changing realistically changes how the GOP will govern. We will continue to pat ourselves on the back because when there were two trains to Hell, we chose to get on the Local instead of the Express.
I was hoping that we could hop on the Uptown Express, and start winning back some of the things we lost. But, instead, we will get Donald Trump. And, as you say, nothing that Donald Trump advocates changing realistically changes how the GOP will govern.
1) fiscal restraint. Trump,is a shrewd business guy and also a miser when it comes to getting a deal. He spent $.13 per vote in NY. Sanders spent $9 per vote and Hillary probably close to same. See any difference? If a guy like Trump cannot rein in govt spending , then no one can. Or will. So this is our only hope, obi wan. The economy is everything really. It affects everything. Pick the man with the best prospects for managing economic recovery ( we will be in recession or worse by next year) and everything else follows. Even reducing abortions that are chosen by women with no economic hope of supporting a child.
2) border controls. It may not be the wall that he promises and it may not be what everyone wants, but there will be a system built to respect and try to preserve US sovereignty over our borders. Fir national security and plain common sense. Why should we keep apologizing and being ashamed of fhaving borders ?? And laws?? The other candidates were too timid and too PC to even discuss as part of the campaign this until Trump made a national issue.
3) Nationalism. Yes pride in and love of this country without being cowed and intimidated by slurs of racism, naziism, colonialism , apologies groveling and revisionism. Only one man has stood up and been impervious to the mobs, the hater accusing him of hate, the globalists warning that he will destroy civilization as we know it. Only one man. And if you don't know this to be true then you are never going to vote for trump anyway. So good luck with whatever democrat we get to continue Obama’s work.
More like am Andy Kaufman fansite.
Just a non-funny
Just as irrelevant
Just as (politically) dead.
:)
Give it up. You are sounding like Glenn beck.
Is that you, Ted?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.