Posted on 04/22/2016 2:32:50 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The math is certain, it's time to move on to fighting Hillary.
The current real numbers are just fine, Trump was expected to win New York, optimistic news I had received not with standing. Yes Trump got 90 delegates. Yes he did well. Yes Kasich got 5 delegates, his first in how long? Yes yes and yes. And No I am not even bothered.
Real Numbers: Cruz 696 Delegates to Trumps 815 Delegates.
Whats left now?
California 172 Indiana 57 New Jersey 51 Washington 44 Maryland 38 Nebraska 36 West Virginia 34 South Dakota 29 Connecticut 28 Oregon 28 Montana 27 New Mexico 24 Rhode Island 19 Pennsylvania 17 +54
Trump needs to get 422 delegates, out of that list.
He loses Montana in full, the 54 in Pennsylvania are gone, Oregon is a wipe for him (he gets 3-6), Washington is already soured to him (maybe 4-6 there), Indiana is looking like Ted Cruz, S. Dakota is Ted Cruz, no one will give Nebraska to Trump, New Mexico is unlikely Trump… These “losses” (we will leave the gains in play) add up to 283 of 658, leaving 337 delegates left for Trump to try to win. Look he ain’t taking all of California either, even if he gets 120 out of there he loses 52 more, which means he comes up short by 137 missing delegates.
Yes you read that correct, even if we tilt California for Trump he cannot win, he misses by 137 delegates. Even if he wins three small States, or Indiana and a medium State, he comes up missing by far too much.
Mathematically Trump has been out for a while, it is a Contested Convention.
In fact it is worse than that for Donald Trump because he messed up in West Virginia and automatically loses 3 delegates minimum there, he started his campaign office in California so late that a number of us pundits think he cannot get delegates for all the Congressional Districts there, and Rhode Island is a proportional election.
Trump cannot get enough delegates from the remaining States even if he picks up 2 major surprise wins.
Ted Cruz has seen an additional bunch of Delegates arrive with his securing S. Carolina for sure (while not fully voted yet you can take this to the bank), Nebraska voted their delegates for Cruz, and Indiana is a done deal according to Party Insiders. Those 54 in Pennsylvania are rumored to be in contention, but not for Trump. Apparently Kasich is making a big play there. However it still hurts Trump significantly, leaving him no way to continue on. One of the most surprising developments was Florida and New Jersey. Rubio had his team walk over everyone in Florida, those 99 delegates are his. In New Jersey Christie is actually strong-arming the leadership in a potentially illegal manner, and is securing almost all of the slates there. Yes you read those right, they secured their home States and not for Trump.
However I reiterate, Trump has already lost the challenge to get to 1237 delegates. There is NO CHANCE OF A TRUMP NOMINATION.
Current Pledged Delegates for Cruz is estimated by me to be at 865 delegates.
Where does Ted Cruz secure the remaining delegates? He needs 372 to win the convention on 2nd or 3rd ticket (vote): Oregon 28 Oklahoma 43 California (projected) 100 South Dakota 29 Pennsylvania (Possible Kasich) 54 Arkansas 40 Kansas 40 Kentucky 46 Montana 27
The list goes on. We have only really gotten a bit over half way in the actual positions. Ted Cruz is the champion here, no other is coming close currently. There is well in excess of 450 delegates I deem “likely” to “Guaranteed” for Ted Cruz. Due to the machinations of Kasich, Rubio, and Christie the establishment has secured 235 delegates already.
This means when Ted Cruz gets 137 more delegates to pledge to him that Trump is mathematically out there as well without offering one of them (Not Rubio) the Vice Presidency, and he is 222 delegates being pledged for Ted Cruz to be guaranteed mathematically eliminated in a contested convention.
The odds of Trump getting the nomination is now under 1% in my view.
Yes that statement is correct. Trump cannot turn the tide in enough States, his efforts in New Mexico are also showing lagging (he had to strong arm them to extend the time he needs to search for people to be potential delegates) and he cannot win so many pledges in an obvious hostile venue in the remaining time. Trump is done.
So, here I am, the first of the major and minor Statisticians, I am calling the election formally for Ted Cruz. Yes this is my formal announcement. I was going to wait until April 27th, but the nature of the States has been provided to me by various sources, and I am confident that even with two major upsets that Trump is not going to win.
Congratulations Ted Cruz for winning the Republican Nomination for President.
The Rosy-Cruzians strike again! Denial!
Cruzer Losers are so funny.
Same tax plan as has been on his web site for long time. Cruz lied about what was said.
Abortion same.
Potty Police is backfiring on Cruz He added a lot to what was said and hes essentially calling for police to look at people’s sex organs before they can use the bathroom. There are bigger fish to fry here.
Sorry Cruz, Lawyer spin taint working for the Globalist.
No, we are going from laughing to pity.
You are exactly right.
That is the way to win!
Concede to the Democrats on every issue, and then the Democrats will have lost those cards to play!
But why would you even want a President Trump if he is going to concede on every issue? Do you think he also won't give away the store on the economy (too late, already did), immigration (too late, already did), and national security (too late, already did)?
Nothing is going to save Cruz, get used to that fact.
And Cruz if he were President wouldn't either.
Exactly, Kent! Don’t people realize that potties are the most important things a president must focus on? My God, man, why are we wasting our time trying to talk about the Norks or border security or the economy! It’s potties!
I kept waiting for the “sarcasm” tag, but never saw it. What is this guy smoking, anyhow?
Vet, WTF? I know you are passionate about cruz, but this is insanity.
Cruz dumped a ton of money in NY. He was expected to keep Donald well under 50 percent.
He failed.
It’s over.
Hell, even Rubio came out in support of Trump yesterday, even after Cruz spent months trying to get him on the phone.
President Ted Cruz will certainly improve the employment situation after hiring all of those TSA agents to be strategically stationed outside of the rest room facilities all across the United States with their blue gloved hands ready to inspect the genitals of America for conformity to the new Federal standards. Pity they cannot also police the pre-exit hand washing standards while they are at it.
Good stuff, man; good stuff.
Analysis of the New York Times‘ vote tracker shows Trump won 61 percent in areas with at least a 50 percent Hispanic population.
enjoy.
Trump may very well be the next President of the United States.
What I can’t figure out is why anybody is happy with that prospect, except the Liberals, who will get whatever they want, and have it given to them by a nominal Republican. That way they can avoid the blame for the disastrous results.
Trump announces proudly that he is all about making great deals.
Making great deals involves trading things you don’t care about for things you want and need.
The problem is, everything you care about are the first things Trump is going to trade away. He is starting already. Since New York, he has already given away three major planks from the Republican Platform. How many more will he give away by July? How many more by November?
Since you have a candidate who announces, proudly, that he is without scruples, and will trade anything to anybody to get what he wants, your problem is to try to divine what it is that he doesn’t care about, and what it is that he really wants and needs.
The way it looks to me is that the thing he really wants and needs is to be President. The things he doesn’t care about, that he is willing to deal away, is the entire Republican Platform.
If winning is that important to you, that is probably a winning strategy. However, I don’t know why winning would be that important to you, if giving away the entire Republican Platform is the end result.
Didn't I just read that you predicted over a year ago that hildabutchbitch would openly declare she was a rug muncher and win the pResidency in a landslide?
It makes sense that some one with your keen eye toward the future would agree with this nonsense.
The Hispanics aren’t stupid! Go Trump!
blah blah balh balh blah
the PUNDITS said he stood no chance back in June
Jebbie was going to walk away with it
Cruz ahs revealed himself to be a real nasty person
Kasich is a feeble washerwoman
and Trump is just gearing up in a serious fashion and put $20 mil of his own $$$ in and hired “ex[erts”...
you know...
plotical scumbags who knwo how to twerk the system...
You dont think trump MADE MILLIONS BY BEING A loser do you >>>?
that skill is represented by CONGRESS...
scumbags and losers who steal from Americans who entrust them to act in America’s INTERST...
WATCH AND SEE How a winner wins.......
And once he is in he will whip Congress into shape to act in America’s interest...
BUILD THE WALL
TAKE CARE OF VETS
AND LEAD IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Trump is Great For America!
Who knew it was such a ridiculous position to maintain that men should use the Men's Room and women should use the Women's Room?
You see how you are willing to tie yourself into knots to defend this guy? Well get used to it, because it going to get a lot worse between now and November.
(By the way, I see that the Trump supporters here are concentrating on Bathroom Gender Fluid Equity, and not talking about raising taxes and going squishy on abortion. Must not be today's talking point...)
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