Posted on 02/28/2016 8:36:07 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
If Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential primary, he is almost a shoo-in to win the presidency this November, a Stony Brook University professor predicts.
Professor Helmut Norpoth's statistical model, which looks at a candidate's performance in their party's presidential primary and factors in the broader electoral cycle, shows that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election, reported Stony Brook's newspaper The Statesman. His odds rise to 99 percent against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
The professor of political science presented his 2016 forecast at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan on Monday.
"Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent. This is almost too much to believe," Norpoth said as he showed his forecast for that potential matchup, using data from the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. "The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It's almost 'Take it to the bank.'"
The model's high confidence in a Trump win is due to his relatively high success so far, Norporth said. The model also factors in the electoral cycle, which makes it difficult for a party to hold the White House three terms in a row, as the Democrats are trying to do in 2016....
(Excerpt) Read more at newsday.com ...
“What he will be shooting for and aiming for is denocrat lite. Which he demonstrated in the Iowa campaign with his position on ethanol.”
I’m not sure what planet you’re from, but THIS ELECTION is about issues FAR BIGGER than ethanol subsidies.
It is about IMMIGRATION and ONLY IMMIGRATION. We’ll get to ethanol subsides later.
You are an idiot.
Donald Trump has given the GOP a ghetto beatdown and he will do the same to Killary.
BobL wrote
It is about IMMIGRATION and ONLY IMMIGRATION. We’ll get to ethanol subsides later.
What message carried Cruz to a win in Iowa ? It was conservative principles. Which were articulated in Cruz-es forthright position on ethanol,opposing government mandates and subsidys and Trumps double dealing on that.
Drifting away from that caused Cruz problems. They tried using a similar example in South Carolina this time on the social issues targeting that . Only to have the MSM lie about the Pope making it seem the Pope (open borders) was jumping into American politics victimizing Trump. Knowing full well what the reaction would be from the fundamentalists Cruz was trying to reach. It is a dirty little secret nobody talks about as the reason and Trump knows it as he brags about getting votes from that group.
What about immigration ? Trump double is dealing about that. He will kick them out but let then come back. Rubio wants them to stay. Cruz says they go and never return starting with those who missed their hearings or overstayed their visa.
Go Trump!
And yes we are the most loyal supporters of any candidate.
“Cruz says they go and never return starting with those who missed their hearings or overstayed their visa.”
Define “they” and provide a link. If you mean 3-time felons, then you’re probably right.
Show me where a 20-year otherwise law-abiding Illegal gets routed up and deported.
I can point you to where Trump has said EVERYONE MUST GO. Please provide the same for Cruz.
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