Posted on 12/27/2015 9:35:26 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
You want predictions? After a year like this?! Who knows. I will say in my defense that after Donald Trump went after John McCain, and nearly everybody in Punditland was saying that’s it, he’s cooked, I wrote no, not so fast. Five-plus months later, that column reads pretty well! So here I go.
Who Will Be the Republican Presidential Nominee?: As I write these words, I’m gonna go ahead and say Ted Cruz, although I actually kinda think it will be Trump, and I’m aware that I’m just saying Cruz to sound respectable (Cruz! Respectable!).
Marco Rubio...well, here’s the thing. I guess the new conventional wisdom is that people finally realized (again, as I’ve been saying for weeks!) that Florida comes far too late to be his firewall, so now everyone’s moved his firewall up to Nevada, and he’s supposed to win there, which would give him a W in one of the early four.
They say he’s got a strong ground operation there. So if he wins that, he’s in the game, anyway. But then it seems to me that after that, for a couple weeks anyway, the only states he’s gonna win are states that are going to be blue next November (Massachusetts, Minnesota, Vermont, and maybe Virginia—yes, Virginia, Hillary is gonna win Virginia). So I have trouble seeing it. Now you should factor in here that I don’t want it to be Rubio because he’s the GOP’s best bet, but trying as best I can to put all that to the side, I’d still rank them something like Cruz, 45 percent chance of being the nominee; Trump, 33 percent; Rubio, 22 percent.....
(Excerpt) Read more at thedailybeast.com ...
I think Trump has a considerable lead and Cruz is his only challenge.
Agree.
Rubio is a lazy campaigner (apparently somewhat lazy senator as well). It doesn’t matter what your ground game is like in a given state, if you don’t have the mojo to excite the base you are toast.
Only Trump and Cruz are showing energy and endurance.
“Saying the obvious is not saying anything.” Jesse Honey, 1986, on an Island in the middle of the Amazon river.
My prediction is Trump/Cruz. Trump will never take a back seat and can lead. Cruz is good at policy and decorum. Perfect match.....then Cruz will step up after the Trump presidency and be CIC.
I'll agree with that, sounds right.
The guy who wrote this at The Daily Beast is an idiot. After reading this article (that is futilely trying to prop up the hapless and duplicitous Marco Rubio) I sure won’t be taking any investment tips from the writer.
No, it truly only “sounds right”, because THAT is what you want to happen.
As sure as GWB can dodge shoes, Trump will be the President.
I see this guy is still living in clod cuckoo land. He might get want to look at the head to heads against Hilary Clinton at RCP.
Partisan Media Shills Alert!
Fun column, I shall give my predicts:
Who Will Be the Republican Presidential Nominee?
Trump. He’s running a NATIONAL CAMPAIGN, which is something that these people will only understand AFTER it is too late to stop him. To put it more specifically, if he stays up 25 points, say 40 to 15 (or maybe 50 to 25, if some of the kiddies drop out), he wins so many states that ‘momentum’ in the early states doesn’t matter. ‘Momentum’, also does not matter if you don’t need to raise money, something that is also missed. He’ll likely lose Iowa since he missed going to church one Sunday when he was just over 7 years old, but other states don’t care as much, and that’s where his huge lead turns into huge numbers of delegates.
And Who’ll Be the Democrat? This is supposed to be Clinton’s year, but even the best of drugs can only hide one illnesses so well. I suspect that she’ll drop out, as there is no way she’ll be able to stand up to Trump (although she could stand up to any other Republican, as they listen to their (mostly gay) advisers that turn them into jelly, but not Trump). So then who? Maybe Webb or someone that could be sold-off as moderate. Sanders simply will not be able to beat Trump.
So Who’s Going to Be President? Trump will win because he will win 70% of the white vote, and since white voters are still 70% of the electorate...that’s about all it takes. This high count of white voters wins him Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and probably Pennsylvania. But Trump will do well with blacks, at least if Hillary runs - winning at 20% of them. Hispanics are a wild card, but I suspect that Trump will get nice with legal ones, while holding his ground on the Illegals - so 30 to 35%. But Hispanics won’t matter much as their big numbers are mostly in states that only flip in landslides, like Texas, CA, and NY. Blacks are much more critical, and that will destroy Hillary - giving Trump an easy path to winning Virginia and North Carolina. I suspect that many in the media and Democratic Party see this path (given their abject panic over Trump), but as long as the Republican leaders and big-money donors do not see this, the Dems will play dumb while the Republican idiots eat each other up.
By the way - Cruz would have to play by the old rules, and try to put enough states together to get just enough states to have the 51% of Electoral Votes to win - it will be tough for him, but probably doable. Rubio loses due to his double-cross on Amnesty, no one will trust him on the issue, so a lot of people will simply stay home...he’ll do no better than McCain.
Is There a Chance of a Brokered GOP Convention? Naa, not when Trump has the delegates to win.
What’s Going to Happen to the Republican Party?
They will come together in the end - after all, there are hundreds of people on the payroll full-time. But Trump is taking names, so expect a lot of them to be getting one-way tickets to join Eric Cantor on K-Street.
All Right, What Else? What About Obama’s Eighth Year? Obama’s eighth year will be dominated by Trump. It will be something NEVER SEEN before in this country. Obama will hop a one-way flight back to M-Bassa once he leaves office, just to get away from it all.
What’s the War With ISIS Going to Look Like in a Year? We’ll still be carpet bombing the Syrian desert, but the war will effectively end there, thanks to the Russians doing what is needed.
Anything Else? The media will again try to guilt white voters into not voting for their obvious candidate (i.e., Trump), but Trump will not stand for it and will give white voters REAL REASONS to vote for him, such as going back to merit-based job opportunities. Also, there is a good chance that Trump will try to reach Asians, who now number close to 50% of Blacks (didn’t know that, did you...their numbers have crept up very quietly). They have the same concerns and their kids are GETTING KILLED by racial quotas at top colleges - they are natural Republican voters, if someone MAKES AN EFFORT to reach them. Trump may well just do that.
My New Year’s Prediction:
I’m pretty convinced the s#it hits the fan in 2016. Not only because of the Muslim “refugee” terrorist-army-in-waiting in Europe, but because I believe that Obama WANTS it to happen on his watch, so he can sabotage American defensive efforts, send our navy to its doom, etc. “The worse, the better,” was how Lenin put it.
A big mistake that most analysts are making is projecting their thinking onto Obama. “Surely, he must just want to limp out of town before TSHTF.” I see it 180* out from that. I think that he wants it to hit the fan on his watch. That’s why he’s in place, in his own mind. Did you know that Barack and Baraka are important and significant concepts in the Arab Muslim mind? Sort of like “lucky star” or “omen” or “major portent.” Obama believes that he is “the chosen one,” the foretold agent of change.
For Obama, the past 7 years were merely prelude. From Fast and Furious on, he’s been cautious, only going as far as he dared. But in 2016, those considerations go out the window. It’s the final act of Damien in “The Omen.” Obama is the spawn of Lucifer-Mohammed and Lucifer-Lenin. He’s no “lame duck,” he’s just winding up for his most critical period yet.
And bear in mind, if WW3 truly gets underway in 2016, the cyber war axis will be the most important of them all. If the grid goes down, even partly, there will be no elections. If there is no electricity in major cities in November, they will explode in looting and riots, and the 2016 elections will be “postponed.”
Tet, Take Two: Islam’s 2016 European Offensive
http://gatesofvienna.net/2015/11/tet-take-two-islams-2016-european-offensive/
Is There a Chance of a Brokered GOP Convention? Naa, not when Trump has the delegates to win.>>>> he needs a majority in 8 states to qualify. the large field might prevent this which i think is the GOPe plan.
I am so screwed.
You are aware, so you are ahead of the herd of sheep.
In order for his name to be placed in nomination at the convention, a candidate needs the majority of delegates from eight states.
Correct; the large field will make this a difficult task. Further, the primary does not apportion all of the delegates in many ststes. A certain number of uncommitted delegates are reserved for the state committee and other party dignitaries.
Accordingly, a candidate could win, say, 55% of the primary vote -- but not receive a majority of the state's delegates.
By the same token, it is quite conceivable that only one candidate might qualify to have his name placed in nomination -- but then fails to receive a majority of the delegate votes.
In their zeal to stack the convention deck for the establishment candidate, the GOP-e has created a potential monster.
Thanks bro. I mostly post ‘I am so screwed’ as a schtick. In real life, I might be okay. I got a guy who is local, The Toll, who will attempt to extract me so I can be part of the “Failure of Civility” fire team, and I’ve been doing some tactical drills.
My primary goals in 2016 are to acquire good skills, good medical supplies, and more long-term food. Water is well covered.
I intend to triple down, and upon any serious threat of a collapse, contact my guy while the comm grid is still up. The Toll, we need to talk about actions taken if the comm grid goes down. That’s a Go Sign.
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