Posted on 05/15/2015 11:12:53 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The field for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination is as flat as any in modern memory—pretty remarkable for a party that usually has a fight but almost invariably ends up nominating whoever's turn it is. While nomination trial-heat polling tells us very little this early, there are some poll questions that are better measurements of at least where these candidates are starting out, before the campaigning, debates, and advertising begin in earnest.
An April 26 to April 30 NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll asked Republican primary voters whether they could or could not see themselves voting for each of 10 different potential candidates. Marco Rubio topped the list, with 74 percent saying they could see themselves supporting him. Second was Jeb Bush with 70 percent; Scott Walker was third with 61 percent; Rand Paul was fourth at 59 percent; Ted Cruz was fifth at 57 percent; and Mike Huckabee was sixth with 52 percent. So six candidates had more than half of GOP primary voters open to voting for them. (Rick Perry, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, and Carly Fiorina rounded out the group with 45, 39, 38, and 17 percent, respectively.)
A CBS News / New York Times poll from April 30 to May 3 took a similar approach, asking whether the respondents would consider or not consider 14 different potential GOP candidates. Rubio led this list as well with 48 percent; Huckabee was second with 47 percent; Bush was third at 46 percent; Cruz had 40 percent; Perry had 39 percent; Paul had 35 percent; Carson had 33 percent; Walker had 32 percent; Rick Santorum and Chris Christie both had 27 percent; Bobby Jindal had 24 percent; John Kasich had 15 percent; Lindsey Graham had 12 percent; and Fiorina had 11 percent.
Tightening the focus a little more, a March Pew Research survey of Republican voters and GOP-leaning independents asked respondents whether there was a "good chance," "some chance," or "no chance" that they would vote for 10 different candidates. An astonishing seven different candidates had between 21 and 23 percent of respondents saying "good chance": Bush, Rubio, and Walker tied for first place with 23 percent, Huckabee and Cruz were next with 22 percent, and Paul and Carson followed at 21 percent. That's a very tight pack.
Expanding to those who had half or more of Republicans saying "good chance" or "some chance," six potential candidates made the cut: Bush (64 percent), Huckabee (61 percent), Paul (57 percent), Rubio (55 percent), Cruz (54 percent), and Perry (53 percent).
What also becomes apparent from reading these surveys is that even the most scrupulously honest pollsters can get fairly different results based on exactly what question they ask and what group they are polling. Looking at Republicans only is one thing; including Republican-leaning independents can bring a very different result. This matters because, in some states, independents are allowed to vote in party primaries, and, in other states, they cannot. National polls have a hard time accounting for this discrepancy, particularly now that area codes don't necessarily indicate where someone actually lives and votes.
The flatness of this field combined with a system awash in money—with just a single billionaire able to keep a candidate in the race—should make for an exceedingly volatile Republican campaign, one that is absolutely impossible to predict.
...ends up nominating whoever’s turn it is...
I guess that takes away the RINO’s most oft used (and typically only) reason to vote for their guy - “but he can win”.
There are only three candidates I’ll vote for. If anyone other than one of these three gets the nomination, I will not cast a vote for president:
Walker
Cruz
Carson
You need to do more research on Ben Carson, especially on the 2nd Amendment and other issues.
The conservatives are all running against each other and the Democrat choice is sitting over their on the sidelines where his pAC will snipe viciously at the contenders without taking much part himself until he has done maximum damage. Then he will raise his head as the last man standing.
Carson says he won’t touch entitlements.
You need to do more research on Ben Carson, especially on the 2nd Amendment and other issues.
But if it’s any consolation, I’m still not sure there should only be two names on that list.
Why anyone is paying attention to polls this far out is ridiculous.
Obviously candidates (including Clinton and Bush) with highest name ID always score highest until some of the other candidates have a chance to raise their profiles.
Write this down: There will not be another black president for at least one or two generations.
Several could. Some would be better than others.
We are voting for Ted Cruz. Hopefully, he will be the nominee. Otherwise, we will write him in. My last “wasted vote” was for Romney. From now on, I will always vote for my choice regardless.
Write this down: There will not be another black president for at least one or two generations.
We need to get that “first” woman president out of the way for the same reason, but not at a time when the nation’s fragility cannot survive an incompetent. Now would be one of those times.
Walker or Cruz would be the preferred candidate. Rand Paul and Marco Rubio both have a decent shot too at the nomination, but I’m wary of both of them, especially Rubio. I think the GOPe has already talked about a Jeb alternative and I think it’s Rubio.
How is being a top-flite surgeon qualifying for the presidency? If he were white or Asian would you even consider him for the post? In well over 200 years we have never had a president without government experience. And before you cite Grant and Eisenhower, please realize that the Army is part of the government and those two men were at or near the top in the Army.
If he were white or Asian would you even consider him for the post?
The media is doing their best to downplay Ted Cruz and even ignore him when mentioning the candidates. Even Laura Ingrahm failed to mention Cruz when rattling off the candidate’s names. SHAME ON HER.
Isn’t she a Rubio swooner?
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