Posted on 07/18/2011 1:10:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
A new poll from American Research Group released Monday shows that former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts is leading the Republican presidential race in South Carolina, traditionally the first state in the South to hold a presidential primary.
The South Carolina Republican primary -- set up with the help of legendary Republican operative the late Lee Atwater, a native of the Palmetto State -- has proven decisive in recent years, helping to erect a firewall in the region for Atwater’s candidate George H.W. Bush in 1988 and propelling front-runners Bob Dole over Pat Buchanan in 1996 and George W. Bush over John McCain in 2000.
Romney leads the pack with 25 percent, with former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who has yet to declare if she is running, in second with 16 percent. U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota placed third with 13 percent, followed by businessman Herman Cain, based in neighboring Georgia, with 10 percent.
The rest of the field trailed in single digits. Two other candidates who have left the door open to running but have not officially entered -- Gov. Rick Perry of Texas and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani -- tied for fifth with 6 percent. Despite being from neighboring Georgia, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich garnered only 3 percent. Three candidates -- U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and former Gov. Buddy Roemer of Louisiana -- tied for eighth with 2 percent. The rest of the pack -- former Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah, former Gov. Gary Johnson of New Mexico and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota -- took less than 1 percent.
The poll shows dramatic developments since an earlier one in April. In that poll, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, who has since announced that he will not run in 2012, led with 20 percent followed by Romney with 18 percent. Billionaire and reality television star Donald Trump, who also announced he was not running, took third with 13 percent, followed by Palin with 10 percent.
Besides Palin and Romney, the two polls show momentum for other candidates in South Carolina -- namely Bachmann and Cain. Bachmann had 5 percent in April and now stands at 13 percent, while Cain moved up from 1 percent in April to 10 percent today.
Gingrich is the one candidate who took a step back since April. He moved back from 9 percent in April to his current 3 percent.
The poll of 600 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters was taken from July 12-17 and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
In 2008, Romney/Paul/McCain/Giuliani (non-conservatives) got 54% of the primary vote. Huckabee/Thompson/other (conservatives) got 46%. A moderate split would be helpful there for sure, as they have an advantage.
I am also NOT a believer in political polling, even if I happen to like a particular number.
I do not believe that Romney is leading in SC, nor do I believe that Bachmann is running away with Iowa.
I believe the LSM/Rep Est want us to believe that Romney and Bachmann are the front runners.
I wonder how much tinkering they had to do to get MB as high as 13%
The Nomination is Gov Palin`s if she wants it.
Paul is in his own camp, and if you remember lots of conservatives voted for Romney last time because he was the conservative alternative to McCain according to the media. Also, the Tea Party has gotten heavily involved since ‘08, bringing in a lot of folks who were not interested in ‘08 to the ‘12 race, and they will generally vote conservative. A lot has changed since ‘08, and we need to recognize that. The GOP is way more conservative than it was then.
Amazing how low Perry’s numbers are considering all the trial balloons he’s been floating lately. Pretty small polling sample though. Hard to say how accurate this is.
Havent been impressed with this polling outfit. It has produced some of the most inaccurate polls in memory.
“Can I raise a finger instead?”
Yes, as long as it’s the Hawaiian good luck sign (as shown by the Pueblo captors).
His close relationship with Senator DeMint helps Romney in SC.
And so ends her political career, IMHO. Her greatest supporters would never rally the way they are willing to right now ever again. It'd feel like "Ross Perot II".
OTOH, if that's what she wants, to step down from the political limelight, more power to her.
I disagree. Palin has been pushed more as a personality than a politician, and I think many conservatives have bought into that line of thinking. I can see almost all of her supporters backing the person she endorses.
It helps, but I still think Perry will win SC. Strange that a staunch conservative like DeMint would be so close to a “moderate” like Romney.
That is way off base, what conservatives see in Palin is someone that is genetically conservative at her core, and is forceful in leadership and getting change made, those are both rare qualities.
Does someone “genetically conservative at her core” support amnesty (or whatever flavor of the week it’s being called now)for millions of illegal aliens in this day and age? How is that forceful leadership?
If you have a good, firm, in depth, campaign ready statement of 2012 Presidential candidate Palin’s position on immigration, then I would like to see it.
Anyone that denies that Governor Palin is a “forceful leader” is an idiot.
I am talking about her interview with O’Reilly as you should know. Anyone denying what she proposed was amnesty by another name is a liar.
If you have a good, firm, in depth, campaign ready statement of 2012 Presidential candidate Palin’s position on immigration, then I would like to see it.
Anyone that denies that Governor Palin is a “forceful leader” is an idiot.
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