Posted on 12/20/2010 10:26:02 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Sarah Palin was barely a blip on the political radar until she emerged as the running mate for 2008 U.S. presidential candidate John McCain.
Since then, she has gained a following among conservative Republicans, and while she hasn't officially announced any plans to run for president in 2012, her efforts to remain in the public eye seem geared toward that end.
If she did run, however, the question remains of whether she could secure the Republican nomination. And more importantly, there is the question of whether she could become the first female U.S. president, beating President Barack Obama, who is likely to be renominated as the Democratic candidate, in a head-to-head battle.
That seems a tall order, according to some experts and polls.
"PRESIDENT PALIN" -- AN UNLIKELY TITLE
Indeed, a Washington Post-ABC poll published on Friday found that a mere 8 percent of voters said they would definitely vote for Palin in a presidential race, versus 60 percent of respondents who said they definitely would not.
Clay Ramsay, research director at the Center on Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, said Palin's chances of winning enough primaries to stay in the game are about 50-50, adding any success beyond such a point is well below that figure.
To win the presidency, Palin would have to climb over three rungs: the primaries, the Republican National Convention, and a general election.
The former governor of Alaska would probably win a few primaries here and there, although her odds of making it through a convention are significantly lower, he said.
And while she has already been through a national campaign in which she showed signs of being her own woman, she also demonstrated a reluctance to accept schooling from professionals, some analysts noted.
POSSIBLE STRATEGIES
Dan Mahaffee, special assistant to the president at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, said one scenario in which Palin could win the primaries would be to mirror former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee's 2008 strategy, which was to drum up a coalition of grass roots conservatives and Evangelicals.
Palin would also have to look toward particular geographic regions for support. Being a right-of-center candidate, she would not likely do well in many of the states that lean left. That means she would have to look to more conservative states in an effort to build such a coalition, he said.
In any case, there are certain contenders she could defeat in a one-on-one standoff, such as former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has dropped hints in recent weeks that he seeks to run but has made no formal announcement.
"Newt Gingrich has a long past, he has a long and awkward record. There are 20 years of video tape to play. Sarah Palin is still a comparatively fresh face," Ramsay said.
Still, there are a number of possibilities for the 2012 Republican ticket, and Gingrich said earlier this month that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is the front-runner.
"Structurally, Romney's the front-runner, and in popularity, probably Huckabee's the front-runner," Gingrich said on "Fox News Sunday."
"Palin is a phenomenon in her own right," Gingrich said.
Mahaffee said the economy would have to remain weak for Palin to win, and other experts noted that Obama's sliding popularity is because of the frail U.S. economy.
She would also have to demonstrate a deeper knowledge of the issues than she has thus far. Indeed, since her arrival on the national scene, critics have derided her as having little knowledge of foreign and other policies.
PALIN'S REALITY TV SHOW
Overcoming those perceptions depends on how successful she is in her current endeavors as a media personality, including public appearances and her "Sarah Palin's Alaska" reality TV show.
At present, the show depicts Palin hiking and road tripping through the Alaskan wilderness in a bid to portray herself as a down-to-earth middle-class American, while distancing herself from what she views as aloof elites in Washington.
Mahaffee, however, questions the show's effectiveness. While it shores up her base, it does little to increase her outreach beyond her current supporters.
Still, the show is no crystal ball of Palin's political fortunes, some experts said.
"When someone is as famous as she is, the whole thing about doing a show on cable is that you have a small but happy and loyal audience, and I don't think it tells you anything about how she's going to play out as a national politician," Ramsay said.
Well, I pre-ordered three copies of her first book. One for myself and two to lend out. However, I didn't have to read her book to know her resignation strategy. It was quite clear the day she announced it. Sarah Palin impressed me as it was a most selfless act on her part to give up power for the good of Alaska. I posted at the time Palin resigned that I believed it was a brilliant move. I still do.
I for one would have no problem with that ticket and judging by the effectiveness of our "guys" in the senate right now, I would really have no problem with Palin/Bachmann. Was thinking at one time Palin/DeMint, but Demint has kind of slipped in my eyes lately while Bachmann hasn't.
The heads exploding here and there would be an extra benefit ;^)
They WISH.
Same here~
>>I can’t take any alleged conservative serious, who won’t do some basic due diligence on Palin’s record.<<
As much as we love FR, Mr. and Mrs. Six-pack (and the largely increasing numbers of Ms. White Whine and Ms. Lupe Shanika Shaquana) don’t really inhabit here. Their brains are poisoned by the same drivel as “Hopey-changey” with little girls singing about the new Messiah and black boys doing paramilitary Nazi-like chants.
They may have seen the light last month, but the light is distant and amorphous. Those are the folks that still think Palin “can see Russia from her porch.” It ain’t fair, but it is true.
Exactly what the hell do you eat?
That’s how they treated the Tea Party Movement from that day in 2008. Remember? It’ll be deja vu all over again.
You bet your shebbazzee! Shazbot!
The heads exploding here and there would be an extra benefit ;^)
I’m serious. I don not know of anyone out there - and I mean anyone - who just looks in the camera and tells you the truth the way these women do. Until I hear a better idea, or a more down to earth name, I am all for it.
OK, I've thought outside the base. I still see her as a winning threat to Obama. He stumbles, can't speak, and we're going nowhere.
This mom/mayor/governor has so much more to offer by experience alone, but that's not all. She could fix things while making you proud at the same time.
There's always a way out of a mess. You just need someone who sees the way out. But more importantly, someone willing to ride on the shoulders of those with the original vision.
“Lovely photo! Sarah/Michele 2012 used to be my tagline.”
Well,, I have yet to see anyone I think could take them in a debate or a contest of “look em in the eye and see who is telling the truth.”
I don’t get these guys who think Palin is not thee real deal. Maybe proving yourself in ALASKAN politics isn’t rough enough? Ask Joe...and he was taking on MooCowSki. Palin took on the whole CBC.
Ah, the “Reagan was unelectable” gambit.
You realize that is a conundrum, right?
You can imagine up anything you want. You can imagine there are several thousand Enterprises out there, but that means nothing in the reality we inhabit.
Pretend all you like. She doesn’t have the base, she doesn’t have the middle, she doesn’t have the independents.
She is an extremely attractive and witty Dan Quayle.
The big secret, I believe, is that they are something more than lowly politicians. And believe me, after the last 2 weeks, I now think most politicians are lowlifes.
OK, I want the moral high ground here...
I saw the sarcasm in your post, and you got hammered by those who didn’t see it.
I want credit, dammit!
AL BABY, I am disappointed! You OF ALL PEOPLE...
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