Would that make any heads explode?
Posted on 12/20/2010 10:26:02 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Sarah Palin was barely a blip on the political radar until she emerged as the running mate for 2008 U.S. presidential candidate John McCain.
Since then, she has gained a following among conservative Republicans, and while she hasn't officially announced any plans to run for president in 2012, her efforts to remain in the public eye seem geared toward that end.
If she did run, however, the question remains of whether she could secure the Republican nomination. And more importantly, there is the question of whether she could become the first female U.S. president, beating President Barack Obama, who is likely to be renominated as the Democratic candidate, in a head-to-head battle.
That seems a tall order, according to some experts and polls.
"PRESIDENT PALIN" -- AN UNLIKELY TITLE
Indeed, a Washington Post-ABC poll published on Friday found that a mere 8 percent of voters said they would definitely vote for Palin in a presidential race, versus 60 percent of respondents who said they definitely would not.
Clay Ramsay, research director at the Center on Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, said Palin's chances of winning enough primaries to stay in the game are about 50-50, adding any success beyond such a point is well below that figure.
To win the presidency, Palin would have to climb over three rungs: the primaries, the Republican National Convention, and a general election.
The former governor of Alaska would probably win a few primaries here and there, although her odds of making it through a convention are significantly lower, he said.
And while she has already been through a national campaign in which she showed signs of being her own woman, she also demonstrated a reluctance to accept schooling from professionals, some analysts noted.
POSSIBLE STRATEGIES
Dan Mahaffee, special assistant to the president at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, said one scenario in which Palin could win the primaries would be to mirror former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee's 2008 strategy, which was to drum up a coalition of grass roots conservatives and Evangelicals.
Palin would also have to look toward particular geographic regions for support. Being a right-of-center candidate, she would not likely do well in many of the states that lean left. That means she would have to look to more conservative states in an effort to build such a coalition, he said.
In any case, there are certain contenders she could defeat in a one-on-one standoff, such as former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has dropped hints in recent weeks that he seeks to run but has made no formal announcement.
"Newt Gingrich has a long past, he has a long and awkward record. There are 20 years of video tape to play. Sarah Palin is still a comparatively fresh face," Ramsay said.
Still, there are a number of possibilities for the 2012 Republican ticket, and Gingrich said earlier this month that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is the front-runner.
"Structurally, Romney's the front-runner, and in popularity, probably Huckabee's the front-runner," Gingrich said on "Fox News Sunday."
"Palin is a phenomenon in her own right," Gingrich said.
Mahaffee said the economy would have to remain weak for Palin to win, and other experts noted that Obama's sliding popularity is because of the frail U.S. economy.
She would also have to demonstrate a deeper knowledge of the issues than she has thus far. Indeed, since her arrival on the national scene, critics have derided her as having little knowledge of foreign and other policies.
PALIN'S REALITY TV SHOW
Overcoming those perceptions depends on how successful she is in her current endeavors as a media personality, including public appearances and her "Sarah Palin's Alaska" reality TV show.
At present, the show depicts Palin hiking and road tripping through the Alaskan wilderness in a bid to portray herself as a down-to-earth middle-class American, while distancing herself from what she views as aloof elites in Washington.
Mahaffee, however, questions the show's effectiveness. While it shores up her base, it does little to increase her outreach beyond her current supporters.
Still, the show is no crystal ball of Palin's political fortunes, some experts said.
"When someone is as famous as she is, the whole thing about doing a show on cable is that you have a small but happy and loyal audience, and I don't think it tells you anything about how she's going to play out as a national politician," Ramsay said.
>>>>> “She shouldn’t have resigned her office. That WILL cause huge trouble in any Presidential run she makes.” <<<<<<
Google can hurt or cure you ...
Ask yourself “ONE” question “WHY DID SHE DO IT?”
(Then ... what would you have done)
Mainstream media is really eating your brain ... turn off the TV before you post.
TT
I swear, these libs are going to get caught flat-footed by the Palin juggernaut, if they keep this up. They're literally going to convince the 21% of the country who are liberal that she's got no chance whatsoever to win the nomination.
Oh, how their heads are going to explode on the day that she actually announces her candidacy.
The first reaction on the left will be one of laughter and mocking.
Within 48 hours, there will be so many American voters lined up to support Sarah, that the left will then shift into petty nastiness.
Within a week, they'll be "concerned" about "serious issues with Palin and her candidacy".
Within a month, they'll be showing signs of real worry.
Three months into the campaign, the libs will be visibly terrified, and some will be ready for the straight jacket.
Six months in, there will be open weeping and moaning across the leftosphere.
Eight months in, and libs will be holding huge tent revivals where they scream, cry, and pray to Mother Gaia (and Lord Obama) to save them.
Dang, it's going to be a thing of beauty!
ROFL.
Typical reply from a beat-down CA resident.
Buck-up.
Ah heck, I already gave that one the same post....lol. The one above him could use it.
>>Typical reply from a beat-down CA resident.<<
Realists are always attacked here at FR.
She doesn’t have a chance. Her negatives (perceived more than real, but those perceptions are all too real to most of the American electorate).
I don’t have a better candidate (God knows none of the 2008 candidates are worth a tinker’s damn), but we waste time, effort and money on Palin is the direct path to the TOTUS-reader’s 2nd term (carter’s 4th term).
This is about who is electable, not who I like. People who previously confused these ideas were Paul-bots. Now we have Palin-bots.
And, for those who don’t understand the concept of a message board: I M H O.
Call me whatever you like. If she gets the nomination, I’ll come back here and laugh at you when she doesn’t win, because she’s not going to.
She’s barely more ‘qualified’ than Hussein was, and she doesn’t have the media on her side to get her elected. Virtually every poll taken during the past two years indicates independents don’t like her(you can’t win a presidential campaign without independents), and her negatives are TOO high. Her negatives are higher than Hillary’s were for crying out loud....
She spent half a term as governor, she’s pretty, and she’s a good conservative. Not what I would consider to be a presidential resume. I actually like her, but don’t think she’s worthy of the office.
I don't know why we bother sometimes. Some of these PDSers have minds like concrete - all mixed up, and set like stone. LOL
That one statement proves that you're as ill-informed about Sarah Palin as the average liberal.
As long as you're going to ignore all of the copious amount of information that exists about her public service record, you're going to continue to parrot the Democrat talking points about her.
I can't take any alleged conservative serious, who won't do some basic due diligence on Palin's record.
;Does Sarah Palin have a shot at U.S. presidency
No
********************************************************<br No shot, no way. A big fat NO. She lost me and a whole bunch of others(more that those hunters out there can imagine) with her slaughter of a clueless animal who didn’t know he was part of a bigger picture so it just stood there, minding his own business, waiting to be killed over and over until finally it died because over-exposed new-millionaire, president wannabee Palin could fill her freezer to feed her family. Give me a break! In my opinion she just became another piece of garbage inhabiting this planet exploiting others to promote herself. She forgot to take into account that there are loads of conservatives who were disgusted by her actions. Fact of life folks for all those blood-lust hunters who love to kill and think she is some big deal. Wake up, she is not. She is over and done.
She kills halibut too.
Seems to me that she was being probed and her detractors didn't find anything. Then there was a mean living liberal next door to her. Then she didn't want to be a lame duck governor because that's no fun. These are no reasons for resigning.
Why don't you tell me the amazing reason for Sarah Palin resigning her office that will make the majority of American voters in 2012 say "Gosh, that's a good reason for resigning. I feel so much less worried that she won't resign the US Presidency once the going starts getting rough!", please.
Listen closely, you two: This thread is about "Does Sarah Palin have a shot at U.S. presidency?", to which I said that her resignation will cause huge trouble if she runs for President.
You're saying it won't. Prove it.
And TexasTransplant, you can just shut your stupid mouth. Idiot.
Would that make any heads explode?
“Seems to me that she was being probed and her detractors didn’t find anything. Then there was a mean living liberal next door to her. Then she didn’t want to be a lame duck governor because that’s no fun. These are no reasons for resigning.”
She was being sued into oblivion and the Alaskan Gubmint doesn’t pay for it. She was drowning in debt and spending all of her time in court. She did the same thing she has done in the past. Found a way around it, outflanked the opposition and came back stronger. Or are we all talking about her because she is of no consequence? Wake up.
Who is? I won't vote for any of the others. Winning isn't the only thing resting on this election. There is serious reform needed in DC and I don't see any one of the other candidates capable of accomplishing anything.
That’s quite a rant. Calling Sarah Palin a piece of garbage is not only offensive, but it’s also very juvenile and we pride ourselves here at FR for being a conservative forum for adults.
Are you a member of PETA? I ask, because you seem to over value the life of the Caribou while accusing Sarah Palin of “slaughtering the clueless animal while it stood there, minding his own business,” until “it died because over-exposed new-millionaire, president wannabee Palin could fill her freezer to feed her family.”
Just wow. You are something else.
>>Wake up, she is not. She is over and done.<<
Ah, sarcasm.
*Mork*: “Arr arr arr arr arr!!”
Harris Poll January 29, 1980:
CARTER NOW FAR AHEAD OF BOTH REAGAN AND BUSH
"President Carter so dominates the American political scene now that his margin over Ronald Reagan in a post-Iowa trial heat has risen to an overwhelming 65-31 percent."
Also, Time magazine ran a big story in March of that year basically saying Reagan was unelectable. Gallup had a poll in that time frame with Reagan down 25 points.
Here's another blast from the past, March 10, 1980. The GOP establishment had decided they needed another candidate besides Bush to stop Reagan and started recruiting Gerald Ford:
ABC News - Harris poll: FORD LEADS BOTH CARTER AND REAGAN, ALTHOUGH STILL UNDECLARED CANDIDATE
"Former President Gerald Ford is the first choice of Republican and independent voters to head the GOP ticket, even though he has not yet declared himself a candidate for the Republican nomination.
Ford also leads President Carter among the general electorate."
“*Mork*: “Arr arr arr arr arr!!”
Whew. Reached into the wayback machine for that one, didn’t ya?
There is no comparison between Obama's record and Sarah Palin's. Obama is a product of affirmative action...Sarah is a product of hard work ...skill....knowledge...and dedication.
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