I'd bet she's gotta a better shot that anyone else.
Posted on 12/20/2010 10:26:02 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Sarah Palin was barely a blip on the political radar until she emerged as the running mate for 2008 U.S. presidential candidate John McCain.
Since then, she has gained a following among conservative Republicans, and while she hasn't officially announced any plans to run for president in 2012, her efforts to remain in the public eye seem geared toward that end.
If she did run, however, the question remains of whether she could secure the Republican nomination. And more importantly, there is the question of whether she could become the first female U.S. president, beating President Barack Obama, who is likely to be renominated as the Democratic candidate, in a head-to-head battle.
That seems a tall order, according to some experts and polls.
"PRESIDENT PALIN" -- AN UNLIKELY TITLE
Indeed, a Washington Post-ABC poll published on Friday found that a mere 8 percent of voters said they would definitely vote for Palin in a presidential race, versus 60 percent of respondents who said they definitely would not.
Clay Ramsay, research director at the Center on Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, said Palin's chances of winning enough primaries to stay in the game are about 50-50, adding any success beyond such a point is well below that figure.
To win the presidency, Palin would have to climb over three rungs: the primaries, the Republican National Convention, and a general election.
The former governor of Alaska would probably win a few primaries here and there, although her odds of making it through a convention are significantly lower, he said.
And while she has already been through a national campaign in which she showed signs of being her own woman, she also demonstrated a reluctance to accept schooling from professionals, some analysts noted.
POSSIBLE STRATEGIES
Dan Mahaffee, special assistant to the president at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, said one scenario in which Palin could win the primaries would be to mirror former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee's 2008 strategy, which was to drum up a coalition of grass roots conservatives and Evangelicals.
Palin would also have to look toward particular geographic regions for support. Being a right-of-center candidate, she would not likely do well in many of the states that lean left. That means she would have to look to more conservative states in an effort to build such a coalition, he said.
In any case, there are certain contenders she could defeat in a one-on-one standoff, such as former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has dropped hints in recent weeks that he seeks to run but has made no formal announcement.
"Newt Gingrich has a long past, he has a long and awkward record. There are 20 years of video tape to play. Sarah Palin is still a comparatively fresh face," Ramsay said.
Still, there are a number of possibilities for the 2012 Republican ticket, and Gingrich said earlier this month that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is the front-runner.
"Structurally, Romney's the front-runner, and in popularity, probably Huckabee's the front-runner," Gingrich said on "Fox News Sunday."
"Palin is a phenomenon in her own right," Gingrich said.
Mahaffee said the economy would have to remain weak for Palin to win, and other experts noted that Obama's sliding popularity is because of the frail U.S. economy.
She would also have to demonstrate a deeper knowledge of the issues than she has thus far. Indeed, since her arrival on the national scene, critics have derided her as having little knowledge of foreign and other policies.
PALIN'S REALITY TV SHOW
Overcoming those perceptions depends on how successful she is in her current endeavors as a media personality, including public appearances and her "Sarah Palin's Alaska" reality TV show.
At present, the show depicts Palin hiking and road tripping through the Alaskan wilderness in a bid to portray herself as a down-to-earth middle-class American, while distancing herself from what she views as aloof elites in Washington.
Mahaffee, however, questions the show's effectiveness. While it shores up her base, it does little to increase her outreach beyond her current supporters.
Still, the show is no crystal ball of Palin's political fortunes, some experts said.
"When someone is as famous as she is, the whole thing about doing a show on cable is that you have a small but happy and loyal audience, and I don't think it tells you anything about how she's going to play out as a national politician," Ramsay said.
I was sleep posting
I was sleep posting, Im going to have it removed
This makes me smile.
Some people have no idea what is in store...
They certainly can mimic the establishment talking points...
Sarah Palin will win the nomination in a cakewalk and the White House in a landslide.
Just watch.
>>The Republican party will be better when we get rid of people like you from the party. You are not a conservative and you clearly don’t have the best intrests of your country in mind.<<
All because I see the truth about Mrs. Palin and the damage she will do.
*shakes head*
What has become of Conservatives where any dissent is seen as “not Conservative?”
You Palin-bots are the most narrow-minded I have seen since the Paul-bots.
You must think that the people don't hate Obama.
Obama can not win again in Indiana, N. Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida and N. Hamphire.
Hey freeDumb,
I want to thank you.
I don’t really know what your motives or intentions are by coming on here with your anti-Palin nonsense, but it has provided a valuable service here and I appreciate it.
I guess you may be unfamiliar with or just don’t understand the phenomenon of Sarah, but she connects with her supporters on such an elementary gut level, we feel she is actually one of us and represents our core values.
We tend to see all the unfair and false criticisms of her as attacks on us and what we personally believe in and hold dear. As such, when someone like you comes along spouting the usual mainstream narrative (that we know for a fact to be false) it strengthens our resolve, causing us to get even more invested in her victory.
You may single handily inspire enough of us to put her over the top early.
So, please, keep up the good work.
You have given no evidence to support your “position” that Sarah can’t win. You only repeat the establishment lie based on bogus polls. They are trying to sway public opinion with these, and it must be frustrating for you establishment types that it doesn’t seem to be working.
I have to ask, is Romney paying you? Because if not you are a fool. He is paying good money for agitators like you in an attempt to tamp down support for Sarah.
It’s just ironic how it has the opposite effect.
So thank you...now go get some of that easy Romney money. Fool.
“I know YOU were giving an insult. I assumed that was because you believed the comparison between Palin and Quayle to be insulting to Palin.”
You misunderstood. I would not be insulted to be compared to Mr. Quayle myself. I don’t know why anyone would..
*shakes head*
I thought I heard a loud rattle.
>>You’re blinded by your dislike of Palin, how could you see anything in any type of proper perspective?<<
One more time. I adore Mrs. Palin. I just think she can’t be elected and will do more harm than good as a candidate. I am looking out for the best interests of Conservatives in the long run.
This should be a difference of opinion on viability.
This thread is all but a carbon copy of the many Paul threads during the invasion of the Paul-bots. They pretty much said the same thing: anyone who didn’t support their candidate was a liberal dummy, (etc. etc. etc.)
Sound familiar?
“No shot, no way. A big fat NO. She lost me and a whole bunch of others(more that those hunters out there can imagine) with her slaughter of a clueless animal who didn’t know he was part of a bigger picture so it just stood there, minding his own business, waiting to be killed over and over until finally it died because over-exposed new-millionaire, president wannabee Palin could fill her freezer to feed her family.”
I agree with you. IT WAS AWFUL, HEARTLESS, and SAVAGE. The Moslems look civilized compared to what this uncivilized female did to some poor defenseless animal. It was and always will be unforgivable.
It makes me sick and rips my heart to think about it!!!!
I dislike this person very much.
FD, you may be missing the big picture by standing too close to this thing, and trying to analyze it at the microscopic level.
Step back. Way back. You’ll begin to see the outlines of some large narratives begin to take shape. One of them is the fact that the Democrats/moonbats/progressives won’t have a charismatic “messiah” to rally behind in 2012.
Obama is damaged goods - a broken piece. He’s given the right volumes of ammo to use against him in the upcoming primary. His approval rating among his base is in the mid to low 40s. He has failed to deliver the Commie Utopia his base believed he would. The simple mechanics of incumbency will bring Democrats to the polls for him, but in nothing like the numbers we saw in 2008. Frankly, the thrill is gone.
On the other hand, enthusiasm and momentum is building on the right, propelling elections and the national agenda toward a conservative counter-revolution. November 2nd was our D-Day landing, and we’ve now established a solid beach head from which to project a major offensive against the heart of Leftistberg.
Now, take a look at the major victory we just won and notice the key Generals who mapped out and led the assault on the entrenched Democrat fortifications. You know who they are.
Make no mistake. We are now engaged in a battle for our survival that is every bit as dangerous as the one the Greatest Generation waged. The citizen army that has mobilized to defeat tyranny over the last two years will invest our “Generals” with elected positions of great power in 2012, including the presidency.
There is one of our “Generals” who stands head and shoulders above the rest, and that is Sarah Palin. Like it or not, she is the de facto leader of our movement. In 2012, that leadership will be acknowledged by the people when they officially declare her Commander In Chief.
“You’re blinded by your dislike of Palin, how could you see anything in any type of proper perspective?”
Let’s turn that around:
You’re blinded by your love of Palin, how could you see anything in any type of proper perspective?
I'd bet she's gotta a better shot that anyone else.
Please see my riposte in your favor at #175.
Keep up you good work.
These nuts are worse than Bushbots. This is one of several reasons we are in so much political trouble. They don’t think. These Sarahbots can’t see the forest for the trees.
President Dewey is the one to emulate.
Reagan doesn’t have a chance. Carter leads him in the polls by 22 points.
I remember that! Carter won didn’t he? LOL
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