Posted on 03/29/2003 6:09:00 AM PST by LS
Over the past week there have been numerous television generals and armchair pundits pontificating as if they knew "the Plan" and how this war was to unfold. They have generally (no pun intended) argued that
we have outrun our supply lines;
we haven't yet "engaged" the "elite" Republican Guard (RG);
and we have a house-to-house Mogadishu-type fight awaiting us in Baghdad (B-city).
Possibly in between, we have to face chem weapons. One military type on (I think) PMSNBC last night said that "we are running out of time," and that we "might not have time" to bring the 4th ID up for "political reasons" and he "worries that we will do something" stupid militarily for political reasons. Get it? If we wait, it proves our incompetence, and if we act with audacity, it is militarily stupid action taken for political reasons.
Guess ol' George and Don can't win. Or . . . can they?
What follows is TOTALLY from open sources. I have NO inside military information. As to the "what if the Iraqis read it?" I am convinced that Saddam is the arrogant one here, not Rumsfeld. EVEN if he understood this plan, he would not believe it could work. Remember, he has "his" plan too, and the western media is telling him "it is working." After all, the PMSNBC officer just confirmed it!
I think an altogether different scenario is emerging, one that virtually NO ONE has addressed.
1) 3ID is indeed resting. The men are worn out. Saddam isn't going anywhere. They are, according to reports SOMEWHAT short of food, but NOTHING ELSE. My guess is that they need sleep more than anything.
2) I Marine Ex. Force is going to slice eastward, cutting the battle zone in half. But the more important thing that is happening here is that both 3ID and I MAE (as well as the Brits, but they have other missions) are fixing the RG units in place SOUTH of Baghdad. See this quotation from today's AP report, that Saddam has his "military equipment in a residential neighbourhood south of the Iraqi capital" Good. That is exactly where we want them.
3) Last night on FOX, one of the excellent military guys they had pointed out that the AIR campaign will not be directed at Baghdad, but at areas BEHIND the RG units to the south, to keep them from reinforcing B-city. In fact, he said, these rolling bombardments would drive them forward. (Get it? To the west and south, into the "kill boxes" where our "pausing" troops have set up shop?)
4) This is the kicker. This is where Patton said we would hold them by the nose and kick them in the ass. The AS-YET COMPLETELY PHANTOM II Marine Expeditionary Force [11,000 men at least] which left Jordan weeks ago from the western deserts is not mentioned in any media accounts. Hmmmmm. Where are they. Moreover, the 101 AB has been flying in massive supplies to H-1, H-2, and H-3. These supplies are NOT going to 3ID. Wonder where they are going?
While the RG is pinned in the south, getting steadily driven onto the "bayonets" of the dug-in American positions, the Kurds seize the oil and key bases in the northeast. That leaves a huge gap in the enemy's defenses around B-city. . . . to the northwest.
I think we will see in the next few days a "phantom" army come out of the desert, just as Lawrence of Arabia did in WW I, to take B-city from the lightly defended northwest.
SPECIAL FORCES are already inside B-city; today's news carries reports of "insurrections" [!} in B-city. The special ops guys are "shaping the battlefield," paving the way, marking the friendly neighborhoods where II MAE can come. Oh, and in the process, they will seize that airfield to the northwest and be able to reinforce pretty quickly.
Much was made of the 101 "guarding the supply lines" for the 3 ID. Do you really think we are using crack airborne troops to watch trucks roll by when there is an open airfield in b-city?
The final collapse will come when a combination of insurrections, American obliteration of the RG outside B-city to the south, and II MAE liberation of B-city to the north push Saddam deep into his bunkers. We only need to capture one. As I understand, they are LINKED by tunnels.
Oh, and chem weapons? The bombing from behind will take these out at the source. Iraqi troops then would risk using them and being driven (literally, running) into enemy fire in front of them while still struggling with these suits, or not using the weapons.
Of course, Iraq may be pulling the rope-a-dope, trying to lure us into something.
Over here guys.
I recommend going nuclear. I am NOT saying this as a rhetorical flourish.
It is the home of Saddam's clan. Such a message would be understood in the Middle East.
I believe that this message, conveyed in contrast with the amazing mercy and compassion with which our soldiers are treating the Iraqi civilians and the wounded soldiers is EXACTLY the message we need to convey to the Middle East and to our enemies.
Biblical justice.
Those 500 or so embedded journalists currently on the front lines with our fellow Americans and our Allies are (imho) the beginning of the end for the leftist, anti-American media.
This is one of the legs of our culture which MUST be remade. You have identified the opportunity this war affords for doing so. I believe we living through a momentous time in the history of our country, one as fraught with both potential and disaster as the Civil War era. President Bush will shape the future as few presidents have. Nothing short of Providence (which gave us Lincoln in his time) has made this possible.
From the daughter of an AF officer (ret.) and the sister of a "Coastie."
My point is that the residents of some foreign countries are much more better served by their jouralist corps than ours because they're actually asking questions - not taking pot-shots like the enemy on the battlefield.
The question about the mines goes to the heart of who's arming Saddam. CENTCOM has no reason to answer any question that may hinder future operations and expose our servicemen and women to potential harm.
I'll be honest--I was 4F in Vietnam! But I KNOW I don't know how to "fight a real war," and that's the difference!
As far as intelligent questions go, I have a feeling the officers giving these briefings can't help but feel that they're stepping into enemy territory every time they appear, considering the antics of the media (our own worst of all) since they began. Not an atmosphere conducive to intelligent discussion, to say the least.
I commend Gen. Franks and Gen. Brooks for showing such amazing restraint throughout these briefings. I would have popped a gasket by the 2nd question.
Our domestic briefing reporters know that the "real news" is happening on the battlefield with the embedded reporters (a fact the Generals tend to subtlely remind the reporters) and the briefing reporters are taking out their frustrations out on the Generals. It's really making them look bad because it's a televised event and most of these flunkies are not used to being in front of a camera. You can easily tell the print newsies from the TV reporters just from the hair and the clothing.
On the mine subject, a NPR reporter tried to imply in today's briefing that our forces are recklessly spreading landmines like the Russians in Afghanistan or the Communists in South East Asia. There's an Eurocentric movement that temporarily had Princess Dianna as a symbolic head organized to outlaw landmines. Gen. Brooks smacked the question down saying that the mines in question were Iraqi and found on Iraqi road systems as our forces moved into Iraq. Any mines we have used to date have been placed in defensive grids around our troop emplacements and will be removed after the war.
Again, Gen. Franks and Gen. Brooks have the patience of saints to deal with this and run a war. Talk about multitasking...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.