Posted on 09/22/2026 1:33:57 PM PDT by Libloather
This El Niño will have an epic tantrum.
While still months away from reaching its peak, the super El Niño is already shattering temperature records.
Data show that the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific has reached 3.07°C (around 5.5 F) — tying the record set by the 2015–16 El Niño — with scientists expecting it to get a lot hotter.
“This month (September) is very likely to have the highest monthly anomalies on record,” Zeke Hausfather, co-author of comprehensive climate change reports for the United Nations, told Phys.org in an email.
Based on an analysis of 14 different climate models, Hausfather determined that temps could hit a peak of 4.0C (a 7.2F rise) in November and December, making this El Niño the largest in 1,000 years.
For reference, any temperature increase above 0.5 C (0.9 F) is considered a regular El Niño while anything over 2 C (3.7 F) is deemed a super El Niño.
Hasufather’s figures, detailed in an analysis in Carbon Brief, draw on how much daily sea surface temps in the Niño 3.4 region—an imaginary region in the Pacific— exceed the 30-year average.
However, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has increasingly adopted a new method, dubbed ONI (Nino3.4), which compares the region’s rate of warming to the entire tropical belt.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
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Does it mean more rain? We need it.
El Jefe Nino!
Generalissomo El Niño Franco.
So global cooling then?
Waters got to come from somewhere.
That stuff’s much too technical for me. I prefer the Old Farmer’s Almanac and its passage about caterpillars.
“Woolly bear caterpillars, the larval stage of the Isabella tiger moth (Pyrrharctia isabella), have long been associated with winter weather predictions. According to legend, the width of the rusty brown band in the middle of the caterpillar indicates a milder winter, while more black on the ends suggests a harsher, colder, and snowier season. Some folklore even interprets each of the 13 body segments as representing one week of winter, with black segments signaling severe weeks and brown segments indicating milder ones. Additional beliefs include the direction the caterpillar is crawling and the thickness of its hair as indicators of winter severity.”
——The Old Farmer’s Almanac
Age and developmental stage: Older caterpillars tend to have more black segments.
Diet and nutrition: The quality and quantity of food during the growing season affect the size of the brown band.
Environmental conditions: Temperature, moisture, and other local conditions during development can alter coloration.
Species variation: Different caterpillars may naturally have varying stripe patterns
AccuWeather
AccuWeather
+2
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Because of these variables, caterpillars in the same area can display different patterns, making any single caterpillar an unreliable predictor of winter conditions.
Cultural Significance
Even though woolly bear caterpillars are not scientifically accurate weather forecasters, they remain a popular part of autumn folklore in the United States. Festivals, such as the Woolly Worm Festival in Banner Elk, North Carolina, celebrate these fuzzy insects with races and community events, highlighting their role in local culture and seasonal traditions.
AccuWeather
“While it is fun to observe woolly bear caterpillars and interpret their stripes according to folklore, their coloration does not provide a scientifically valid forecast for winter weather. The patterns reflect the caterpillar’s life history rather than the severity of the upcoming season. For accurate winter predictions, it is best to rely on meteorological forecasts rather than caterpillar folklore.”
——The Old Farmer’s Almanac
Trump’s fault.
A guy in construction mentioned once that unlike cars going to the gas station, all the heavy construction equipment has to have visits by gas trucks paid for by the site company.
Until then I had never thought about it.
El Niño Diablo.
CA no longer gets much dependable water from the Colorado River.
God is sending CA replacement water. Rather than developing a plan to retain and use the water God is sending, CA sees the gift from God as a problem to get rid of a fast as possible.
This will make a sermon for many pastors. Pharoh listened to Joseph and prepared for the hard times to come. CA has not learned what God has taught us for a few thousand years.
Where is that 1,000 year old thermometer anyway?
I resemble that remark. Fall work season is upon us.
Keith Richards said that is climate scare hogwash - he doesn't remember it being anywhere near that hot.
As long as I get lots of snow in southern Indiana....
The last big El Nino in 2016 brought hardly any rain to Southern California.
The expected effect of this Super El Nino, is significantly higher than average precipitation, and somewhat cooler temperatures in California and Southern United States. Warmer than average in the Northern US.
The expected effect of this Super El Nino, is significantly higher than average precipitation, and somewhat cooler temperatures in California and Southern United States. Warmer than average in the Northern US.
Of course not, thats ridiculous. Everyone knows the only true predictor is the shape of persimmon seeds.
North America was the last continent to civilize. Why was that? May be it is the ubiquitous hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, forest fires, draughts. Very few other places on earth have all of these natural disasters present together.
They always highlight potential negatives, and never mention potential positives.
A strong El Nino would bring lots of rain to Arizona, filling up reservoirs with much needed water.
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