Posted on 09/01/2026 5:49:07 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
This video from Black Conservative Perspective analyzes recent political polling trends and discusses why election outcomes often differ from poll predictions. The creator highlights concerns that polls may underestimate Republican support, drawing on historical examples like the 2016 and 2024 elections.
Key takeaways from the video:
Polling Discrepancies: The creator discusses a CNN segment where data analysts explored scenarios where polls might be wrong. The video suggests that when polls are incorrect, they have historically underestimated Republican performance (0:01:22-0:06:50).
Social Trust: The video explores the theory that lower "social trust" among some Republican voters may make them less likely to participate in polls, contributing to potential inaccuracies in polling data (0:09:46-0:10:50).
2026 Midterm Projections: The creator outlines what a "nightmare scenario" for Democrats might look like if polls underrepresent the GOP by 2-4 points, suggesting this could lead to a Republican majority in the Senate and the retention of the House (0:02:33-0:03:55, 0:11:03-0:12:35).
Alternative View: The creator also acknowledges the possibility that the polls could be accurate or even underestimate Democrats, but argues based on recent trends that Republican underperformance in polls is a more recurring pattern (0:19:47-0:21:20).
Ultimately, the speaker emphasizes the importance of Republican voter turnout to build momentum ahead of future election cycles, regardless of current polling sentiment.
(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...
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What hasn’t been discussed is the potentially huge impact of cutting off USAID and NGO funding in the Dem vote machine, both GOTV and fraud.
Only one poll counts. President Trump is nothing if not a closer.
After Horizontal got smushed by Trump, a ton of fevered reports pointed to the commies being wiped out. For generations. Finished. Kaput. No way back. Drained. Exhausted. Ended. Spent. Doomed.
After the socialists get a few headlines, everyone wants them? Not buyin’ it?
The DNC’s Hamas wing can wait a little bit longer.
I used to do telephone survey work as a second job. Think we did do some political ones, but it was mostly other, commercial, stuff.
I think the pollsters are probably really having problems now that there are no landlines anymore. And there aren’t any telephone directories for cell phone numbers. At least when there were landlines and directories you could, for example, poll the people who lived in Brooklyn, or Des Moines, or Florida.
I mean, we did some stuff with random phone numbers, but assume that’s all you have now. And that’s a crap shoot. And you don’t just want to poll the most engaged folks, that is NOT the majority of voters. Think we are lucky if anything is even in the ballpark, tbh.
Don’t forget about the redistricting that has been done. That will probably flip somewhere between 10 and 16 seats that formerly held Democrat butts. That means the Democrats need to flip two other Republican seats to break even.
Assuming best case scenario and redistricting net the Republicans 16 seats. The Democrats would have to take 32 Republican seat or they lose ground.
It Republicans over perform the polls at their historical levels of 2% to 6% the Democrats will lose ground.
Am I making a prediction? No, I am acknowledging the arithmetic of redistricting.
Richard Nixon attempted the same in 1970 and succeeded only in a small 2 seat increase in the Senate. Where Trump has MAGA, Nixon had the Silent Majority.
I get lots of random sales calls from WA state on my cell phone, because my phone number is from south-west WA state. Pollsters have no clue I now live in FLorida.
The polls are deliberately faked.
It’s been this way for decades. They set us up to believe the steal on election day.
Democrats were a Party with some Conservatives and many Liberals back then, not the leftist Party now
Democrats were a Party with some Conservatives and many Liberals back then, not the leftist Party now
Democrats were a Party with some Conservatives and many Liberals back then, not the leftist Party now
I avoid answering polling calls, texts or emails. Block them when they show up. If I were to inadvertently answer one I would lie. I’m guessing that the polling companies have a regular group of people that are known to answer polls, and that group is not representative of the voting population as a rule, so they often get it wrong. Key is to pay no attention to the fake polls and get our butts out and vote.
Can Trump get oil prices down before the election? Especially heating fuels. Because the pain of people trying to keep warm is going to be hitting right around election day. Not a good combo. $6-$7 dollars a gallon is not going to go over well. I will still support Trump of course, but lots of people will blame him for the ridiculous heating costs.
But America is far more leftist today. And people who didnt vote back then like the 20 somethings are voting today. Because they want what the left promises, free stuff. Even most of the college SDS types didnt believe in that. And the GOP hadnt yet sold itself to the silent majority. In a way it’s like today. So many GOP have accepted MAGA, but from Trump not the guy putting up lawn signs asking for their vote for Congress. In that case Election Day is a day to take the family to Buc-ees not stand in line waiting to vote.
We will see. Democrats also ran smart Canidates in 1979. Not the jokers of today.
That’s not the deciding factor. My cell number is central VA and live in NOVA, but in the last *millennium* I lived in SE Michigan and I get polling calls for Michigan all the time. Because tbey won’t remove me from the MI voter rolls.
That’s why you get WA polling calls. Check your WA voter status. You’re still on their voter rolls.
Every poll I take I am for the Democrats to win it all. ,wink,wink
Now all we have to do is show up and give Trump 2 more years to finish the job of saving America. So Republicans ,get off your lazy asses and VOTE ,or be the ones to blame for our country’s down fall.
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