Traffic in Strait of Hormuz skyrockets nearly 400%, as analysts say Iran’s grip on critical waterway weakens

NY Post ^ | 8/22/26 | Gabrielle Fahmy

[Libloather]

Iran appears to be losing its grip on the Strait of Hormuz while traffic through the critical waterway has exploded by nearly 400% over the last two weeks — as ships increasingly use a US-backed corridor to cross.

Nearly 200 ships navigated the strait last week, up from 150 the previous week and just 40 two weeks earlier, according to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations Center.

The surge brings total traffic along the passage route to about 20% of pre-war levels, through which roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil flowed in peacetime.

Activity in Hormuz ground to a near halt after the Iran war began in late February, but vessels are now increasingly navigating through despite the ongoing standoff between Tehran and the US.

More than 80% of liquid cargoes transiting the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks have either taken the Omani route — a US-backed, UN International Maritime Organization-authorized channel Iran rejects — or gone “dark,” likely slipping through the same corridor, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler.

“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, told CNN this week.

“The Oman route absolutely makes the most sense,” added Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, noting it’s a way for vessels to avoid the possibility of paying a toll to Tehran.

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TOPICS: History; Local News; Science; Travel
KEYWORDS: hormuz; iran; irantruth; oiltruth; traffic; waterway

[Libloather]

Don't try to understand 'em. Just rope and throw and brand 'em. Soon we'll be living high and wide.

[rodguy911]

Since when is Iran collecting tolls and how are they doing it? With all the ships and planes we have you would think we could guarantee a relatively safe route through the straits.

Also, ships carrying crude better start carrying armed security so the entire burden does not fall on us.

I wonder if we are allowing the dark fleet to exist since it not only carries Iranian crude to china but other countries crude to other destinations?

[tlozo]

New Oman Coast Route (Red)

[mewzilla]

President Trump has sworn to tariff the living snot outta any country offering Iran aid.

Say you’re a country that wants to keep aiding and abetting the regime, what are you gonna do to try to keep from getting caught and subjected to tarrifs.

You pay a “toll”.

Note to our supposed allies...

Yeah, good luck with that.

[Theophilus]

Let’s Roll!

[ptsal]

Bkmk

[ptsal]

Updated Anaconda.... Persian style

[Gen.Blather]

“Also, ships carrying crude better start carrying armed security so the entire burden does not fall on us.”

Prior to WWII most ships carried a small armory which the captain kept under his control. If someone looked like they were going to board the ship, the captain passed out guns. However, when the UN started writing rules there were a lot of governments around the world that didn’t want guns finding their way into the hands of dissidents. So guns on ships were outlawed. If a ship today wants armed security, it comes onboard before the danger area comes up and gets off before the ship gets to a port.

The problem with Iran is that they don’t board the ship. They demand payment. If the payment isn’t made, they fire a long-range drone that’s launched from a civilian truck miles from the coast. A couple of armed guards probably won’t help against a drone. The probability of shooting down a drone is probably pretty low. You have to know it’s coming, track it, lead it and have sufficient capability to hit it. That probability needs to be about 99%.

[Merrick]

All lies!!! Damnable lies!!! All the sages at FR schooled me on how Iran was in complete control and had Trump by the balls and would collect *massive* tolls on each and every ship through the Strait FOREVER!!!

They taught me, and I learned, and I’ll never anger them again, so I’m calling this out as 100% MADE UP LIES!!! 5here are *no* ships going through the Strait!! The MSM supports Trump and is lying to help him in November!!!!!

[silverleaf]

Good analogy

[silverleaf]

The constant threat of attack drives the insurance rates, whether the attacks occur or not.

This “ risk factor” by at least one analyst added $10-$20 per barrel to Gulf Oil exports even before the war started in Feb

Will a Trump operational success reset the cost of trade in the Gulf by neutering Iran? Remains tbd

[tired&retired]

You forgot the sarcasm tag.

[Fireone]

The so-called “new route” looks to be quite a shortcut. Why hasn’t this been the main route forever?
Those shipping bean counters seem to be overlooking a few profit dollars here.

[Empire_of_Liberty]

I believe that the Iranian “toll” would be collected at Iranian ports that US warships do not let vessels enter. So, the Iranians are getting no “toll”.

[trebb]

Iran is breaking down - and they and many others don’t seem to realize it....yet..

[Empire_of_Liberty]

I would expect that the “historic” route was forced by Iran.

I particularly like the passage between two Iranian islands. It sort-of, “sets the mood”, don’t you think? ;-)

Iran has been a terrible neighbor for decades. Now, they prove it by firing missiles and blowing things up.

[bray]

That’s because Trump is Bibi’s lapdog and the JOOOOOOOS!!

[Worldtraveler once upon a time]

---- " All the sages at FR...."

Applause for your comment. Sometimes sarcasm can nick and sometimes can carve!

[bert]

The function of the US Navy is to protect trade routes and freedom of the seas

Thomas Jefferson proclaimed this fact to the world as the US Marines fought on the Shores of Tripoli defeating those extorting trade routes

[daler]

And the price at the pump in our town jumped 10 cents a gallon yesterday.

So this good news hasn’t worked its way into middle America.