Iran, Oman near deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz with both countries collecting ‘service fee’: report

Iran and Oman are close to an agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic that would see both countries collect a so-called “service fee” to cover environmental and security costs.

The New York Times reported late Monday, citing Iranian and US officials familiar with the developing accord, that ships entering the strait from the Indian Ocean via the Gulf of Oman would be required to take a route through Iranian territorial waters.

Vessels exiting the strait from the Persian Gulf would take a route near Oman’s coast along the south side of the strait.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed ongoing talks with Oman to establish what it called a “temporary” shipping route through the waterway, through which around one-fifth of the world’s oil traveled in peacetime.

Saeed Ajorlu, a member of Tehran’s negotiating committee, told state broadcaster IRIB that such an arrangement would be in effect for one to three months “where Iran is dominant.”

“We assert that the legal regime for passage through the Strait of Hormuz must not return to its pre-war state,” said Ajorlu, referring to when no state controlled the waterway.

However, a US official told the Times that Iran’s description of the would-be agreement was “not accurate,” insisting that no tolls would be collected and Tehran would have no say over which ships could traverse the strait or what route would be used.

Trump needs to end this regime. He informed Oman already that the US will not abide by their “levies”. There is a legal precedent (Gemini): United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), adopted in 1982 and ratified by over 160 countries:
1. Freedom of the High Seas (Article 87)On the high seas (waters beyond national jurisdiction), freedom of navigation is nearly absolute.Universal Access: All states—coastal or landlocked—enjoy the freedom of navigation and overflight. Exclusive Flag-State Jurisdiction: Ships on the high seas are generally subject only to the authority of the state under whose flag they sail (Article 92). Reservation for Peaceful Purposes: High seas must be used exclusively for peaceful purposes (Article 88).2. Freedom of Navigation in the Exclusive Economic Zone (Article 58)In a coastal state’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)—which extends up to 200 nautical miles from its coastline—the coastal state holds sovereign rights over natural and economic resources (such as fishing and seabed oil).Preserved Navigational Rights: Foreign ships and aircraft maintain the freedoms of navigation and overflight, as well as the freedom to lay submarine cables and pipelines, identical to high seas freedoms. Duty of Due Regard: Foreign ships must respect the lawful rights, environmental regulations, and resource jurisdiction of the coastal state.3. Right of Innocent Passage (Articles 17–26)Within a state’s territorial sea (up to 12 nautical miles from the baseline), the coastal state exercises sovereignty, but foreign vessels retain the right of innocent passage. Definition: Passage is innocent as long as it is continuous, expeditious, and not prejudicial to the peace, good order, or security of the coastal state.Prohibited Activities: Foreign ships (including warships) must not engage in weapons practice, intelligence gathering, willful pollution, fishing, or research during innocent passage (Article 19).Submarines: Submarines and underwater vehicles are required to navigate on the surface and show their flag (Article 20).4. Right of Transit Passage (Articles 37–44)For straits used for international navigation (such as the Strait of Malacca or the Strait of Hormuz) that overlap territorial seas, UNCLOS guarantees a stronger right called transit passage. Unimpeded Transit: Ships and aircraft enjoy continuous and expeditious transit through international straits. Non-Suspension: Unlike standard innocent passage, coastal states bordering a strait cannot suspend or hamper transit passage (Article 44). Submerged Navigation: Submarines are permitted to transit submerged if that is their normal mode of operation.5. Archipelagic Sea Lanes Passage (Article 53)For archipelagic states (such as Indonesia and the Philippines), UNCLOS allows foreign ships and aircraft the right of passage through designated sea lanes and air routes. This right mirror transit passage rights through international straits, ensuring trade routes remain open across island chains. For a concise breakdown of how UNCLOS establishes maritime zones and how freedom of navigation operations work in international waters, check out this UNCLOS Law of the Sea Overview.This video provides a helpful overview of the UNCLOS framework and explains how countries exercise and enforce freedom of navigation rights worldwide.

Now if the UN will not enforce this, then it is time to disband the UN and abrograte all treaties they have signed. They should get the hell out of New York.

No, overall we are about 50% down. That’s still a problem, but if we would horse-trade with the Ukies for 1% of their drone production, we would be in pretty good shape in taking out Iranian targets except for hardened and deeply buried targets, which require other solutions besides missiles anyway. We still have air dominance and huge inventories of fighter and bomber deliverable air-to-ground weapons.

Interceptors are a problem too, esp. since our Gulf allies have not been as successful as we’d like in shooting down Iranian missiles*, but it’s pretty certain that while we may take a few hits at bases, Iran is no longer capable of the missile volleys it was firing off at the beginning of Epic Fury.

*In all these reports, I’ve not seen the allies’ missile inventories addressed. If they really are our allies, they should assist in taking out Iranian launchers when those launchers pop out. That will help reduce damages, esp. to their infrastructure, which they are justifiably worried about, but seem to ignore that if the Iranian regime stocks back up later, then they (allies) are REALLY hosed.

“Pay me now or pay me later” is usually a LOT more painful payment later.

Speaking of which, Trump needs to put his Titanium gonads on:

As has been demonstrated many times in the past, economic strangulation can take years if it even works, and often it doesn’t work because the leaders of authoritarian regimes don’t care how much their people suffer, so long as they (the regime) stays in power.

What is needed here is a quick strangulation from which recovery to at least manageable circumstances is reasonably quick.

If I was Trump, I would tell the Iranians that the US will now only accept a uni-conditional surrender. The one condition is that we will not treat them any worse than they would treat us.

That should get their attention.

But if that fails, then we should take out Iran’s very vulnerable refined products supply, after telling the Gulf States they have 2 options: 1) Go ALL in and assist with eliminating as many Iranian launchers as possible, to minimize retaliation by Iran. We can give each ally a modest slice of Iran to “cover”, and we will back them in every way possible while not diminishing our own efforts at destroying those launchers. Or, 2) They can try to sit it out and get hit by Iran even worse.

Iran won’t last long without refined products. We should also tell Iran’s border-neighbors that if they allow anything but food and water supplies to enter Iran, they (neighbors) will lose all aid and cooperation from the US. Afghanistan of course won’t care, but not much can come from them anyway, and if it’s fuel trucks, cheap Ukie style drones will take them out. BTW, the Ukies should be told it’s “open season” in the Caspian Sea. For every Russian aligned ship taken out, we will send the Ukies a Patriot missile, 1st in line, as soon as our own shortage is replenished. Or, maybe some munitions about to be scrapped, for their F-16’s. (We have a lot of that stuff.)

I understand Trump not wanting to harm Iran’s civilian population, but, dragging this out creates more harm overall than getting it over with.

I'm seeing an upside to this Iran/Oman agreement. Whether is is agreed to or even kept (doubtful) is immaterial.

This could give Trump the out he needs. I doubt he thinks he needs an excuse to leave, but he does.

It's way past time the US takes our toys and goes home. Trump could claim this Iran/Oman agreement is the victory we came (it's not) for and is the catalyst for ending this futile war.

Naturally it doesn't even come close to acheiving the no nukes objective Trump has been promising, but that goal was never gonna happen anyway.

So this agreement, whether it holds or not, is a perfect time to declare victory and go home.

These alternative ports can be defended and have successfully intercepted heavy barrages of Iranian missiles, but they are not completely impenetrable. While the ports utilize the world’s most advanced air defense networks, intense fighting has demonstrated that no system offers 100% protection against overwhelming volume or saturation attacks.The defense capabilities of the specific bypass ports vary drastically by location.

Fujairah Port (UAE) – Highly Advanced, Multi-Layered Defense: Fujairah sits at the center of a heavily integrated, multi-layered air defense grid. It has been tested directly in combat and boasts high interception rates.

The Interceptor Shield: The UAE protects its critical infrastructure using U.S.-supplied THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) and Patriot PAC-3 systems.Combat

Integration with Israel: To patch gaps against low-altitude threats, Israel deployed standard Iron Dome batteries (utilizing Tamir interceptors) and next-generation, laser-based Iron Beam systems directly onto Emirati soil.

While the network successfully destroyed thousands of incoming threats, it is vulnerable to saturation. Iranian drone and cruise missile strikes managed to bypass defenses, sparking significant fires at the Fujairah Petroleum Industries Zone and hitting a nearby oil tanker.

Baniyas Port (Syria) – Vulnerable and UnderprotectedThe Syrian Mediterranean port of ⁠Baniyas is much harder to defend and currently lacks a reliable, modern anti-missile shield.

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