Pa Primary results thread/discussion

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[HamiltonJay]

Just finished working my local polling place in PA.

Small suburban borough, fairly evenly split.

I have worked this district every election for more than 10 years now.

Lowest turnout of any election I have ever worked, by far.

Democrats turned out at more than 3-1 for this primary in my district..

This was a primary with nothing. Really contested on either side of the aisle, with most races simply having one candidate.. so nothing structurally was driving turnout on either side, so low turnout isn’t surprising… but lowest turnout in over a decade is surprising and democrats turning out nearly 4-1 is unusual.

Even on this boring elections my district turnout is generally 50-50 or close to it.

It is pretty clear at least in my district democrats shows up and republicans didn’t. Whether this is a harbinger of something coming this fall, or not I can’t say, but it’s clear Dems appear to be more motivated to show up.

But like I said overall turnout was by far the lowest of any election I’ve worked (10+ years of working every primary, general and special election)

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TOPICS: Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: bluewave; gasprices; pa; pennsylvania; swingstate

[marktwain]

As the turnout was very small, can you say, even with the disproportionate turnout for Democrats, was the Democratic turnout small as well?

[Nextrush]

I think because of economic conditions Stacy Garrity has a shot at beating Josh Shapiro in November. I went out and voted for her in the primary.

But I wonder what dirt will be used on her before November.

[Leaning Right]

> Dems appear to be more motivated to show up <

Most of my friends are conservative pensioners - birds of a feather flock together. Some of them are grumbling about gas prices and inflation at the grocery store.

I’m not here to say who’s right and who’s wrong. But I am reporting that they’re blaming Trump. Not white-hot Democrat blame. More like disappointment blame.

How will this affect the November elections? None of my friends would think of voting Democrat. But some might stay home.

Looks like I’ve got some persuasion work ahead of me.

[kvanbrunt2]

i wanted to vote but with nothing except Lt Gov up for grabs, i need to get my tomato patch finished and planted. it is already late. Skid steer rental to finish the new boxes and level middle earth just seemed more important. And i only have so much gas each day.

[Big E]

Same here. I’m in Berks County. I work the polls. Very low turnout. No exciting local races. Most races unopposed. Boring, although we always have a few mini-dramas. Hard to read anything into November from today where I am. I think Garrity has about as much chance as I do of being an astronaut, so I expect turnout will be very low in November as well. I am in a non-competitive House district.

[bantam]

Yep, Garrity is a sacrificial lamb!!
Republicans in PA better get their shite together, and turnout in November!!!

[gunnut]

In my district there was literally one office that had more than one candidate. There were no offices that sparked any interest. I don’t know about the democrat side.

[MMusson]

Bitter Cat Ladies turn out in higher numbers than working people. It’s a fact.

[mikelets456]

This is how I feel and I worry that inflation and high gas prices will keep Republicans home on the mid terms and the radicals on the left will takeover states and federal elections.

I predict we’ll be controlled by communists. Sadly I’m more concerned about the state. PA is hanging by a thread

[Kid Shelleen]

This is pretty significant. Rabb is another left wing loon. He was endorsed by the “Squad,” and campaigned with Hamas Piker. Major defeat for the Philly local political machine by the national extremists.

Progressive firebrand Chris Rabb wins Democratic primary for the nation's bluest House seat

[USS Alaska]

It is pretty clear at least in my district democrats shows up and republicans didn't. Whether this is a harbinger of something coming this fall, or not I can't say, but it's clear Dems appear to be more motivated to show up.

After last elections redistricting, my polling site in Irwin, was sold out to a pittsburgh site making my congress critter Summer Lee, so for the first time since the 1960s I did not vote in this years primaries.

Both Lee the demonRAT and hayes {the pubbie without a prayer in the general election} ran unopposed so there was no need to waste my time.

In the general the demonRATs have a 2-1 head count advantage, I'll vote but it will be mostly just a protest vote.

[lightman]

My precinct had an 11.9% turnout of in-person voters and when the received vote by mails are factored the total participation was 19%

Not shabby at all for a Primary in which there was only one contested race (Lt. Governor) on the GOP ballot and one contested race (Democratic State Committee) on their ballot.

EVERY problem at my poll involved Democrats over-voting their State Committee race. They either can’t read, can’t count, or can’t follow directions.

Amazing.

The only spoiled ballots were from Democrats. The only provisional ballots were issued to Democrats. It makes you wonder.

[HamiltonJay]

Great question.

Honestly, my district I would say Democrat turnout was typical. Republicans was done.

we had a total of 70 in person votes... which as I said was lowest turnout I’ve ever seen. Next lowest turnout in my decade plus working this district has been low 90s.. and in person voting generally is close to 50/50 with a little more republicans turning out that Dems.

This time it wasn’t even close.. 42 D’s this time vs 28R in person, and vote in was 44 total with far more D’s than R’s.

Had the in person voting been typical, would have been in the 80s to 90s total which would have been a little lower that previous low, but not nearly as low as it was.

So, overall, lower for both, but FAR lower turnout than typical for GOP...

[HamiltonJay]

Honestly, I don’t think Shapiro is in an risk of losing. Though he has been pandering more and more to the radical left wing base... which up until recently he had largely been ignoring/rejecting.. and if he were to embrace it wholesale it will hurt him..

We’ll see how things go, but at present, I’d say Shapiro will comfortably win re-election. Don’t like saying that, but honestly that’s what I see.

[dfwgator]

I don’t think the GOP is going to even bother dumping money into that race.

[HamiltonJay]

Its hard not to blame Trump for the gas spike... he bombed Iran... caused instability in the markets and prices went up. There is no spin for that.. the question is do folks feel like it was worth it?... THAT is the real key here...

Gas prices will drop back down quickly once this situation ends... because Trump has driven down high gas prices twice already.. so they will drop down again once this is over.

The question is, when will it be over, and how will it end. If this drags on into late summer and early autumn.. and it ends with nothing really changing... there is little doubt the GOP will get lambasted. IF this comes to an end and Iran is truly neutured from being any sort of international creator of chaos as a result, and prices return to their pre war highs, the calculus is, was the IRAN action and a few months of high gas prices worth it? For most, if it concludes with than end result, and does so during the summer, I think the gas price issue will be forgotten by most people.. though dems will still try to hammer it, but if prices are back down to $2.50 a gallon and iran is completely neutured one way or another... That will be considered a win by most folks and by November will not play into their calculus.

We shall see

[HamiltonJay]

My polling district has been the same geographical area for decades. Congressional district lines are not remotely what I am talking about, I am talking about the polling site I worked at... My comparisons are apples to apples over 10+ years.

[HamiltonJay]

Yes, Like I said, that was true of this election in my district as well.

Only 1 contested race on the GOP side, LT Governor I think, and one of the county committee or something had 5 people running for 4 seats. Thats it, didn’t even have candidates on the ballot for some positions.

Democrats was the same way, though they had maybe 12 people running for the 5 sets, etc.

There was no real draw.. but I’ve worked every election primary and general for more than a decade, and so this isn’t the first primary that I have worked that has been like that.

This election there were 70 total in person votes. That’s the lowest of any I have ever worked. Next lowest one I believe was around 90... and it too was a primary with really nothing to draw.

By turnout percentages, Democrats showed up, GOP did not. Both were down, but GOP was way down.

This district is always one of the better in terms of turnout percentages in the county, no matter the race...

I have not looked at the county or state as a whole yet, so this is just 1 data point, but it was clear that overall turnout was down for both, lower than any previous election I’ve worked, but that the GOP turnout was far more down.

I am not saying this bears any indication on what will happen in the fall, I am just offering it up as an observation and a data point.

The BIG draw this fall in PA will be the governors race, no Senators are on the ballot, so that’s going to be the big draw.. We’ll see how the race evolves, now that the GOP candidate is formally chosen, though she ran unopposed so its not like we didn’t know who it was going to be.

By all traditional analysis Shapiro should be set to win comfortably. We will see if Stacy Garrit can make it a race. If she can, then PA could get interesting, but if it stays a race where Shapiro is never really under any threat... the GOP would need to NATIONALIZE the house election and get people motivated across the 17 congressional districts to show up.. or at least COMPETITIVE districts.. right now 4 are considered competitive, and all 4 are currently held by GOP. (These are the 4 traditional battleground districts in PA) GOP did well in 2024, flipping the 7th and 8th districts in 2024 to carry all 4 of them.

Right now, to expect the GOP to run the board in all 4 of those districts again is just not likely. Which means the GOP will need to pick up whatever they lose there somewhere else.

I am not saying it can’t happen, but if GOP holds all 4 of those PA seats, any talk of a blue wave is dead... not that they won’t gain seats overall but if the GOP holds all 4 of those election night, there is ZERO change you are going to see some giant blue wave.

The Governors race will be interesting to see what happens, last few races the GOP hasn’t even taken the field.. in fact they actively worked to have Mastriato lose... I don’t know what the state GOP will do with Stacy Garrit.. will this actually be a race, or just another, we put up our sacrificial lamb, and will publicly pretend its a race, but in reality do little if anything to truly try to win.

[HamiltonJay]

Again, I have worked this same polling station now for over a decade, I have worked every primary, every special election and every general election.

This was by far the lowest turnout and by far the biggest differential between Dems and GOP in turnout that I have worked.

In person 70 votes, 28 GOP, 42 Democrats.. Mail in 34 total votes.. 31 D, 3 GOP.

Mail in difference of nearly 10 to 1, statewide this is about a 6 to 1 delta. Off the top of my head not sure what previous mail ins have been, but Dems almost always win that, though I think 10 to 1 is outside the norm for this district. So I wouldn’t sound the alarm over that by itself, but total:

73D votes to 31 GOP votes, is beyond lopsided for this district. I pay far more attention to in person numbers as that’s what I do all day is help folks actually vote... And 42 to 28 is WAY low for the GOP side, while the total of 70 is low overall, had it been its typical 50/50 split, that would have been 84 in person votes, which would be a little lower than than lowest I can recall, but only by a handful of votes... only pulling 2/3 of the Dem in person vote is definitely a noticeable deviation from the norm, even in a slow uncontested primary.

I am not concluding anything, just offering it up as a data point.