Posted on 04/13/2026 5:43:58 AM PDT by daniel1212
Iran does not need to secure the Strait of Hormuz. It only needs to make sure that no one else can, either.
Despite the sorry condition of its naval forces,.. Iran still maintains selective control of the Strait of Hormuz—resulting in 80 to 90 percent of the traffic being halted. How? Not through naval dominance, but rather through asymmetric disruption, which Iran uses to make travel through the Strait too dangerous to risk.
Iran Doesn’t Need to Close the Strait to Cut Off Shipping
Iran’s strategy is not to implement a total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, it raises the risks and costs of passage, encouraging most to simply stay away. Through a combination of cheap weapons, geography, and cultivated uncertainty, Iran is able to achieve sufficient disruption to functionally close the strait.
Iran is aided in its efforts by the structure of the shipping business. Most seaborne commerce—particularly in hydrocarbons...—takes place on enormous tankers, which often cost upwards of $100 million, not including the value of their cargo...and have virtually no defenses against missile and drone attacks. Given the vast cost involved in losing a tanker, no party involved is willing to take the risk of running the blockade. Indeed, seaborne insurance companies will often charge extremely high insurance rates—or refuse insurance altogether...
How Iran Can Punch Above Its Weight in the Persian Gulf
Naval Mines: One of the primary asymmetric tools.. is naval mines. Iran is thought to possess an inventory of 3,000 to 4,000 mines, including contact, acoustic, and influence-triggered types. These mines are hard to detect and harder to clear,..
Submarines: Iran also deploys midget submarines, like the Ghadir class,.. Iran has a vast arsenal of land-based anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs)..
Drones: Shahed-type drones are launched from deeper inland
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
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It doesn’t. The threats of potential but increasingly unlikely mines, UASs and missiles creates fear in merchant shipping. The same ships are alreay constantly vulnerable because the rear echelons are evaporating anyway.
I like the blockade strategy. I’d like it even more if we took possesion of Kharg and Qeshm. One way or abother, we Own the Strait.
Not so much controlling but acting as pirates in speedboats and threats of mines.
Control is exerted via fear.
President Trump is fixin to enforce sanctions against Iran.
The US decimated Iran’s navy. How does it still control the Strait of Hormuz?
************************
By terror. Exactly the same way we should expect them to have an impact on the world should they ever get nuclear tipped missiles!
Via asymmetric threat vectors....not conventional means
These articles are written as if the sand people have an inventory of marvelously effective modern mine warfare platforms…and the US navy is still minesweeping with WW2 technology.
As long as the Iranian regime remains in power, this will continue to be the status quo.
We, the public, don’t know who’s in charge in Iran.
But we do know there are plenty of Deep States willing and able to give aid and comfort to whomever it is.
So this was never just about the mullahs.
Because it has suited the Trump Administration's purposes.
The Houthis were actively attacking shipping in the Red Sea but it never shut down the Red Sea passage because the US kept the sea lanes open because we wanted to.
The Trump Administration has now maneuvered the Iranians into a blockade of shipping going in and out of Iran.
Famous American expressions of defiance...
1775: Give me liberty or give me death.
1835: Come and take it.
2026: Get your own damned oil.
Jeez, forgot one...
1944: Nuts.
Piracy is easy, as is stopping it. Just takes time. 80s tanker war took 5 years. This should be shorter. Unlike Reagan, who barely grazed Iran, Trump is literally killing Iran’s leadership and their kin. The keeps up, Iran is gonna be fighting with kitchen knives and farm implements.
Putin could order thousands of Russian tanks to drive towards Kiev.
None would get there under their own power.
It’s easier to take out a speedboat than a tank.
Famous American expressions of defiance...
1775: Give me liberty or give me death.
1835: Come and take it.
1944: Nuts.
2026: Get your own damned oil.
That would make a great tee shirt...
Don’t forget the tariffs... :-)
Daniel: Axis of fear bump
“Of the 89 million deadweight tons of commercial ships built in 2024, 50.8 million of them (57%) were Chinese.”
“In 2023 China delivered 972 commercial ships”
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/how-china-became-the-worlds-biggest
You “like” the fact that 47% of China’s oil passes through the strait of Hormuz and US piracy on the high seas would in fact constitute a naval blockade of anither superpower’s energy supply? This is the most dangerous and stupid escalation yet (and that’s saying a lot). I think people are slowly coming to the realization that Trump is actually a little bit mental. Too bad it took the crashing of the world economy for years to come to realize that.
If something is in range of land based weapons — mines set by small, concealable speedboats or anti-ship missiles — the only way to prevent interdiction is to seize the coastal areas from which such attacks can be launched.
Boots on the ground.
Or persuade the mullahs to renounce martyrdom and play nicely.
Since they won’t do that, boots on the ground.
Why, at this late point, is there not yet an Iranian government in exile, obviously set up and backed by the U.S. but providing a rallying point and transitional government for anti-regime Iranians? If we don’t want American boots on the ground, we will have to recruit, arm, train, and support the Iranian resistance. It will need a base area on Iran’s border. It will then need a controlled area within Iran in which to raise the flag. U.S. airpower can probably secure the bridgehead against the IRGC if there are enough resistance fighters in the trenches, but we would still need 10,000, then 20,000, then 50,000 effective fighters on the ground.
Apparently smuggling arms through the Kurds hasn’t worked. So what next?
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