It doesn’t. The threats of potential but increasingly unlikely mines, UASs and missiles creates fear in merchant shipping. The same ships are alreay constantly vulnerable because the rear echelons are evaporating anyway.
I like the blockade strategy. I’d like it even more if we took possesion of Kharg and Qeshm. One way or abother, we Own the Strait.
Not so much controlling but acting as pirates in speedboats and threats of mines.
Control is exerted via fear.
President Trump is fixin to enforce sanctions against Iran.
Via asymmetric threat vectors....not conventional means
These articles are written as if the sand people have an inventory of marvelously effective modern mine warfare platforms…and the US navy is still minesweeping with WW2 technology.
As long as the Iranian regime remains in power, this will continue to be the status quo.
Because it has suited the Trump Administration's purposes.
The Houthis were actively attacking shipping in the Red Sea but it never shut down the Red Sea passage because the US kept the sea lanes open because we wanted to.
The Trump Administration has now maneuvered the Iranians into a blockade of shipping going in and out of Iran.
Piracy is easy, as is stopping it. Just takes time. 80s tanker war took 5 years. This should be shorter. Unlike Reagan, who barely grazed Iran, Trump is literally killing Iran’s leadership and their kin. The keeps up, Iran is gonna be fighting with kitchen knives and farm implements.
Putin could order thousands of Russian tanks to drive towards Kiev.
None would get there under their own power.
It’s easier to take out a speedboat than a tank.
Daniel: Axis of fear bump
“Of the 89 million deadweight tons of commercial ships built in 2024, 50.8 million of them (57%) were Chinese.”
“In 2023 China delivered 972 commercial ships”
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/how-china-became-the-worlds-biggest
If something is in range of land based weapons — mines set by small, concealable speedboats or anti-ship missiles — the only way to prevent interdiction is to seize the coastal areas from which such attacks can be launched.
Boots on the ground.
Or persuade the mullahs to renounce martyrdom and play nicely.
Since they won’t do that, boots on the ground.
Why, at this late point, is there not yet an Iranian government in exile, obviously set up and backed by the U.S. but providing a rallying point and transitional government for anti-regime Iranians? If we don’t want American boots on the ground, we will have to recruit, arm, train, and support the Iranian resistance. It will need a base area on Iran’s border. It will then need a controlled area within Iran in which to raise the flag. U.S. airpower can probably secure the bridgehead against the IRGC if there are enough resistance fighters in the trenches, but we would still need 10,000, then 20,000, then 50,000 effective fighters on the ground.
Apparently smuggling arms through the Kurds hasn’t worked. So what next?
Risk management is what it comes down to. Aka money.
No shipper wants to risk losing people, a ship or cargo.
Militarily they have drones, maybe shore to ship missiles, and mines, which mines will shortly be a non-issue.
Our ASW platforms can detect and prosecute any ministry subs.
“Cultivated uncertainty”
A mine here or a rocket launcher there isn’t much but it can do some damage to an oil tanker and my understanding is that the insurance doesn’t want the boats to go through
About 60 million barrels of oil produced outside of the USA are bought daily.
At a markup of $30/barrel above pre-war pricing, the cost to Asia, Europe, etc. is $1.8 billion/day.
If a tanker costs $100 million, maybe about 15 tankers a day would have to be lost to Iranian mischief to justify not risking tanker passage.
Countries might simply buy tankers stranded in the Gulf off their owners, fill them up with oil, and sail them out under US Navy protection. US Navy helicopters might fly above to rescue crew members if necessary.
The tanker owners have debt payments and would be willing to sell at a fair price.
Truck mounted rockets can hit a ship.
This is old news. The US now runs the show.
To the MSM, “decimated” is a word with emotional impact. It suggests devastation. It carries a wallop. It’s like removing 90%.
Decimate means removal of one tenth. That’s not that much.
The headline is a stupid headline from a stupid author or editor. If anyone at MSN knew better, they were probably assured that readers are too stupid to notice.
The dictionary definition also relies on people having no knowledge or not valuing precision. Definitions for dummies.
The only control Iran exerts is from the land that borders the strait, and it has a long stretch of that. And being narrow, that is not something to minimize.
Drop leaflets warning civilians to evacuate within 72 hours, and begin with waves of B-52, carpet bombing the entire stretch, moving gradually inward.
If we have to, of course.