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Seizing Iranian Offshore Islands: High Risk, Low Payoff
U.S. Naval Institute ^ | April 2026 | Brandon Carr

Posted on 04/10/2026 8:31:51 AM PDT by Retain Mike

The United States is said to be considering conducting limited ground operations in the Iran war. Among the potential operations reportedly under consideration are efforts to seize the islands of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs, Larak, and Kharg in the Persian Gulf.

There are serious questions surrounding the feasibility of these potential actions. But like with the air war, even if ground operations succeed tactically, it is highly unlikely they will bring about the strategic effects the administration seeks. Limited ground operations are unlikely to compel the Iranian regime to agree to an immediate ceasefire or an initial political settlement to end the war. They are even less likely to force the regime to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping prior to a cessation of hostilities, as Iran’s control over that waterway is its most important source of leverage to end the war on favorable terms.

Limited ground operations risk prolonging the war and widening it. Such operations would substantially increase the resources required to prosecute the war, severely and enduringly degrading U.S. military readiness in other critical areas of national interest, particularly the Indo–Pacific.

Despite the degradation of Iran’s military capabilities and industrial base in the five weeks since the United States initiated Operation Epic Fury, the combined U.S.–Israeli offensive has not brought about decisive strategic results. The Iranian regime has not collapsed. It maintains the capacity to attack targets throughout the Middle East and has de facto control over the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

(Excerpt) Read more at usni.org ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Chit/Chat; Military/Veterans
KEYWORDS: hormuz; iran; tds
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To: Carry_Okie

Walmart might have to find large numbers of new suppliers if a Chinese weapon causes a significant problem.


21 posted on 04/10/2026 9:18:07 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: Antioch

But millions of barrels are already removed from circulation by the fact that the strait is closed. My point is that Iran should not be shipping when no one else can.


22 posted on 04/10/2026 9:20:54 AM PDT by marron
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To: Antioch

Iranian Tribal Oil Ltd.

serving the world since 2026


23 posted on 04/10/2026 9:21:29 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: Antioch

the province that contains the Straight has about 150,000 people and most of the Iran persian gulf coast is far north of the straight.

who said anything about occupying anything? just keep their boat traffic off the water


24 posted on 04/10/2026 9:22:38 AM PDT by ChronicMA
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To: McGruff

It does seem that with a regime in place like the current this could be a most hazardous assignment forever.


25 posted on 04/10/2026 9:26:38 AM PDT by Retain Mike ( Sat Cong)
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To: teeman8r

**I think the seized Iranian Islands would be a perfect “Gitmo” for the region. No cell phones**
Brilliant! Why didn’t I think of that? Put a mosque on each big enough to house them. They’ll be safe.

**The people with power can be hunted down by a large number of means which obviously I should not describe and I will not describe.**
Please do just that. An idea without a solution doesn’t help.


26 posted on 04/10/2026 9:27:36 AM PDT by DIRTYSECRET
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To: Brian Griffin
Drones can rely on cellphone tower signals, even router signals.

We're talking about control of the Strait for about 150 miles. A cell tower is only good for a 10-15 miles over unobstructed water. The most obvious control points are the islands, because the coast itself is out of range to control of outgoing shipping (incoming is another matter). With the exception of Qeshm most of those islands are so small that every tower on each is an easy target. A few A-10s can strafe those coastal islands. How many are we talking about and where? I just can't imagine why we can't control that.

27 posted on 04/10/2026 9:31:26 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The tree of liberty needs a rope.)
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To: Retain Mike

Seizing the islands would be seizing the oil production and shipping of Iran. That is likely the main goal after getting the uranium out.


28 posted on 04/10/2026 9:41:59 AM PDT by arthurus (l| covfeve |l }-)
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To: Carry_Okie

Hormuz being locked up or restricted is a desireable thing for tthe present. It is part of controlling Iranian oil.


29 posted on 04/10/2026 9:44:23 AM PDT by arthurus (l| covfeve |l }-{)
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To: Antioch
Iran as half the size of Western Europe and it’s coastline in the Gulf is 800 miles long.

So what? Compared to Western Europe, it's relatively empty with 1/4 the population density of Western Europe. And most of Iran's population is clustered in a few urban centers. Why do you think the US was able to rescue those 2 downed airmen without sustaining any casualties?
30 posted on 04/10/2026 9:45:33 AM PDT by In_Iowa_not_from
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To: Antioch

You missed the part about easily replcing the pumps.


31 posted on 04/10/2026 9:47:04 AM PDT by arthurus (l| covfeve |l }o{)
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To: Carry_Okie

My friends the Abu Musa have 2000 inhabitants plus a mosque per Wikipedia. Throw in a dispute between Iran and UAE and we can turn it over to our friends while they do the Gitmo thing. Larak has a ‘Portugese Castle’along with only a few hundred people. Turn it into a mosque.

Kharg has 8k people-tougher nut to crack.


32 posted on 04/10/2026 9:52:56 AM PDT by DIRTYSECRET
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To: Carry_Okie

Remember, Cheney, the CIA and all the usual suspects were insisting that pre-invasion Iraq was a Baathist, modern and secular regime needing a gentle push and a few tweaks to fold and make peace with Israel? That was the level of analysis by the neocon children in the cabinet, which led to us going in with guns blazing hoping to create a modern westernized state. How long did it take them to find their religion and fight back against the infidel? If I recall, it was about two months,. Even if it was only 15% of the population, it was enough to send us home in failure. Now, if you take Iran, it has a much stronger religious base of at least 25% of the population. Wisdom, a deference for a recent history and a spiritual state of humility would advocate for the position that there’s nothing we can do militarily in that country except unleash an orgy of death and destruction largely on innocents.


33 posted on 04/10/2026 9:52:57 AM PDT by Antioch (A merely fallen enemy may rise again, but the reconciled one is truly vanquished -Friedrich Schi)
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To: Antioch
Wisdom, a deference for a recent history and a spiritual state of humility would advocate for the position that there’s nothing we can do militarily in that country except unleash an orgy of death and destruction largely on innocents.

How about the sane 3/4 of the population unleashing a systematic and orderly death and destruction of the psychotic perpetrators?

34 posted on 04/10/2026 10:01:08 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The tree of liberty needs a rope.)
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To: Retain Mike
The author states:
Limited ground operations risk prolonging the war and widening it.

While such risk may appear obvious, it is not true if the limited ops are strategically effective. The author has scholastic credentials but not sure what his military experience or security clearance is, if any.

He further states:
As the war has demonstrated thus far, Iran’s missile and drone threat cannot be eliminated from the air.

That is not necessarily true if the demonstration goes on to include an air-based defensive weapons platform.

The author then concludes:
The United States should avoid the temptation to commit further military resources to a conflict that is unlikely to result in the realization of its strategic aims at an acceptable cost to other U.S. priorities.

He doesn't provide any opinion as to those other priorities nor does he say what an acceptable cost might be. Meanwhile the U.S. has a good record of fighting on more than one battle front.

Perhaps this article was intended for a class exercise at the military academies.

35 posted on 04/10/2026 10:02:22 AM PDT by frog in a pot (Are they already inside the wire? See open borders and not paying TSA payroll during war.)
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To: In_Iowa_not_from

Those rescued airman went down near Isfahan. Also, we barely made it out alive losing 2 C130s, 4 helicopters, 2 Apaches and an A10. If you look at the video of the multiple fuselages burning in the desert, you can see some of them riddled with bullet holes, so who knows what really happened. What we do know is the butchers bill for that rescue is in the neighbourhood of $400 million dollars. That SHOULD be foreshadowing of the chances of success for these cockamamie plans to land C130s with bulldozers to open up Fordow to snatch the enriched fuel or plans to remove Iranian ability to control the strait.


36 posted on 04/10/2026 10:09:27 AM PDT by Antioch (A merely fallen enemy may rise again, but the reconciled one is truly vanquished -Friedrich Schi)
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To: Carry_Okie

How about the sane 3/4 of the population unleashing a systematic and orderly death and destruction of the psychotic perpetrators?

How about their society is their choice and it’s none of our business? How about we have a fractured society, a mountain of social ills, a serious drug problem, insane amounts of debt threatening to collapse us and no clear way forward? We have precious few resources to even scratch the surface of the existential threats to the country. This is the behaviour of an empire in terminal decline.


37 posted on 04/10/2026 10:16:47 AM PDT by Antioch (A merely fallen enemy may rise again, but the reconciled one is truly vanquished -Friedrich Schi)
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To: Antioch
How about their society is their choice and it’s none of our business?

That fails the test of reality, as Iran has been consistent in doing whatever they could to damage the US and has been in assiduous pursuit of means to do a lot more.

38 posted on 04/10/2026 10:21:37 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The tree of liberty needs a rope.)
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To: Brian Griffin

“””””The people with power can be hunted down by a large number of means which obviously I should not describe and I will not describe.”””””

Sounds serious, share it with us.


39 posted on 04/10/2026 10:31:16 AM PDT by ansel12 ((NATO warrior under Reagan, and RA under Nixon, bemoaning the pro-Russians from Vietnam to Ukraine.))
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To: Antioch

That is the result of the USA fighting with one hand tied behind its back. The reason that war is expensive for the US is because we try to minimize collateral damage.


40 posted on 04/10/2026 10:38:54 AM PDT by In_Iowa_not_from
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