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Seizing Iranian Offshore Islands: High Risk, Low Payoff
U.S. Naval Institute ^ | April 2026 | Brandon Carr

Posted on 04/10/2026 8:31:51 AM PDT by Retain Mike

The United States is said to be considering conducting limited ground operations in the Iran war. Among the potential operations reportedly under consideration are efforts to seize the islands of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs, Larak, and Kharg in the Persian Gulf.

There are serious questions surrounding the feasibility of these potential actions. But like with the air war, even if ground operations succeed tactically, it is highly unlikely they will bring about the strategic effects the administration seeks. Limited ground operations are unlikely to compel the Iranian regime to agree to an immediate ceasefire or an initial political settlement to end the war. They are even less likely to force the regime to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping prior to a cessation of hostilities, as Iran’s control over that waterway is its most important source of leverage to end the war on favorable terms.

Limited ground operations risk prolonging the war and widening it. Such operations would substantially increase the resources required to prosecute the war, severely and enduringly degrading U.S. military readiness in other critical areas of national interest, particularly the Indo–Pacific.

Despite the degradation of Iran’s military capabilities and industrial base in the five weeks since the United States initiated Operation Epic Fury, the combined U.S.–Israeli offensive has not brought about decisive strategic results. The Iranian regime has not collapsed. It maintains the capacity to attack targets throughout the Middle East and has de facto control over the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

(Excerpt) Read more at usni.org ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Chit/Chat; Military/Veterans
KEYWORDS: hormuz; iran; tds
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1 posted on 04/10/2026 8:31:51 AM PDT by Retain Mike
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To: Retain Mike

i think the seized Iranian Islands would be a perfect “Gitmo” for the region. No cell phones


2 posted on 04/10/2026 8:36:07 AM PDT by teeman8r (Armageddon won't be pretty, but it's not like it's the end of the world or something )
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To: Retain Mike

“The Iranian regime has not collapsed. It maintains the capacity to attack targets throughout the Middle East and has de facto control over the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.”

I guess we need to bomb the electric grid, gas production, and oil production. Start hitting trucks that are delivering supplies into Iran too.


3 posted on 04/10/2026 8:40:53 AM PDT by DEPcom
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To: Retain Mike
The Iranian regime has not collapsed. It maintains the capacity to attack targets throughout the Middle East and has de facto control over the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

To which I would add that they still retain that half-ton of enriched uranium.

How far WERE we from attaining those three goals?

As to the first, I've heard that Iran was weeks from economic collapse, but that metric is obviously debatable. It is not clear whether a collapse is necessary when a takeover is a more desirable outcome anyway. This of course cuts to why we are not arming Iranian citizens to accomplish that for us.

I've read all sorts of estimates as to how many intermediate range missiles and launchers are left. What is the current number?

As to Hormuz, that question is strictly military. Why can't we seem to jam drone control signals? Are they spread spectrum? Is China manufacturing them? If so, how are they delivered?

4 posted on 04/10/2026 8:43:31 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The tree of liberty needs a rope.)
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To: Retain Mike

U.S. Navy aircraft carriers can be protected, right?

Torpedoes and anti-ship missiles have been around for decades. All U.S. Navy warships should have means of dealing with them, most especially escort vessels.

Drones have been used in Ukraine for over four years. The U.S. Navy should have protective means by now.

If U.S. Navy ships can’t defend themselves, why build more?


5 posted on 04/10/2026 8:45:57 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: Carry_Okie

“As to Hormuz, that question is strictly military. Why can’t we seem to jam drone control signals? Are they spread spectrum? Is China manufacturing them? If so, how are they delivered?”

I saw reports of Chinese transport aircraft arriving after the ceasefire. I have also heard reports of truck convoys crossing into eastern Iran before the ceasefire. I think they have a supply chain coming in from China.


6 posted on 04/10/2026 8:50:54 AM PDT by DEPcom
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To: DEPcom

My suspicion is that they and Russia are delivering shoulder fired missiles to take down our aircraft.


7 posted on 04/10/2026 8:56:01 AM PDT by marron
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To: Retain Mike

This is a webpage of an Israeli drone company:

https://www.aero-sentinel.com

The webpage requires too much bandwidth and computing power for my PC to load it.


8 posted on 04/10/2026 8:57:39 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: Retain Mike

Iran should not be allowed to ship oil while the straits are closed to anyone else. It should be easy enough to blow up the loading pumps. They can be easily replaced once the war is over.


9 posted on 04/10/2026 8:57:51 AM PDT by marron
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To: Retain Mike

Say we do seize the islands. What happens then? US troops stationed there for the foreseeable future?


10 posted on 04/10/2026 8:57:55 AM PDT by McGruff
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To: McGruff

Right now, they become easy targets for drone attacks.


11 posted on 04/10/2026 8:58:59 AM PDT by marron
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To: marron

“to take down our aircraft”

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2025/1/21/i-dream-of-a-quiet-drone-free-gaza


12 posted on 04/10/2026 8:59:58 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: Carry_Okie

Is that what you’re banking on? A collapse of the country? Do you know what happened to Libya, Syria or Afghanistan during the chaos and collapse of their societies following US bombing? Did it make you safer or less safe?

Trump may be right that the US has the most powerful military in the world or universe or whatever but the part he’s leaving it is no matter how powerful the military is, rarely can it overcome the will of the native people that it applied against. You can have troops on the ground tucked behind concrete blast walls, but the moment they leave so does the influence. So what’s the point in 11 carrier groups exactly?


13 posted on 04/10/2026 9:03:54 AM PDT by Antioch (A merely fallen enemy may rise again, but the reconciled one is truly vanquished -Friedrich Schi)
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To: Carry_Okie

“Why can’t we seem to jam drone control signals?”

Drones can rely on cellphone tower signals, even router signals.


14 posted on 04/10/2026 9:04:09 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: Retain Mike

they should seal off all coastlines, both the islands and the mainland of Iran any where close to the Straight.

Prevent mine laying or any other military activity

sorry fishermen, you are temporarily out of a job


15 posted on 04/10/2026 9:06:13 AM PDT by ChronicMA
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To: marron

Iran should not be allowed to ship oil while the straits are closed to anyone else. It should be easy enough to blow up the loading pumps.

This is just the sort of thinking that the children of the cabinet must be advocating for without any clue as to the consequences of such actions. If you blew up Irans oil production, you would be removing millions of barrels of oil from circulation, and that would result in $200 a barrel oil and collapse the world economy, and the US economy. That’s why they don’t blow them up.


16 posted on 04/10/2026 9:07:57 AM PDT by Antioch (A merely fallen enemy may rise again, but the reconciled one is truly vanquished -Friedrich Schi)
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To: DEPcom
I saw reports of Chinese transport aircraft arriving after the ceasefire. I have also heard reports of truck convoys crossing into eastern Iran before the ceasefire I think they have a supply chain coming in from China.

Shooting down Chinese aircraft has its obvious problems, but destroying the landing sites does not. Similarly, a truck convoy from China via Pakistan has the prospect of cratering roads. Why has this not been done long ago. Those roads and airfields are within range of Diego Garcia.

Once in Iranian possession, then brings up the questions re jamming drone signals.

17 posted on 04/10/2026 9:08:39 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The tree of liberty needs a rope.)
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To: Antioch

The people with power can be hunted down by a large number of means which obviously I should not describe and I will not describe.


18 posted on 04/10/2026 9:11:34 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: ChronicMA

Iran as half the size of Western Europe and it’s coastline in the Gulf is 800 miles long. Are you planning to have 150,000 troops permanently stationed on the coast, hated by the local population and targeted by IED’s for the next three decades? I think a toll is cheaper.


19 posted on 04/10/2026 9:11:48 AM PDT by Antioch (A merely fallen enemy may rise again, but the reconciled one is truly vanquished -Friedrich Schi)
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To: Antioch
Is that what you’re banking on? A collapse of the country?

I don't know how you got that from what I wrote:

It is not clear whether a collapse is necessary when a takeover is a more desirable outcome anyway.

Please read more carefully.

Trump may be right that the US has the most powerful military in the world or universe or whatever but the part he’s leaving it is no matter how powerful the military is, rarely can it overcome the will of the native people that it applied against.

You appear to be assuming the Iranians are all jihadis. Such is clearly not in evidence. I have been advocating arming rational elements among the Iranian people since the moment this fight began.

So what’s the point in 11 carrier groups exactly?

Beating up on second rate powers to keep them from being bad for business? That's been obvious since the days of Bush II.

20 posted on 04/10/2026 9:16:43 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The tree of liberty needs a rope.)
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