Posted on 04/05/2026 11:03:28 AM PDT by MtnClimber
Brussels avoids speaking about it openly but the ghost of the 2020 COVID-19 crisis is beginning to reappear in the corridors of the EU.
What if the next major restriction does not come from a virus but from a lack of energy?
In Brussels, nobody wants to utter the term yet. The European Commission avoids any official comparison with the pandemic and rejects talk of “energy lockdowns.” But the idea is beginning to circulate with growing normality.
The war with Iran and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a crisis that no longer resembles the one of a few weeks ago. Back then, the discussion was mainly about voluntary measures, energy-saving campaigns and possible recommendations. Now rationing has begun for real, although for the moment it is concentrated on fuel.
Slovenia has become the first member state of the European Union to impose mandatory limits at filling stations. Private drivers cannot buy more than 50 litres a day and in some private stations the maximum has even been reduced to 30. Companies and farmers have a limit of 200 litres and the government has even mobilised the army to guarantee supply.
This type of action opens a door Brussels wanted to keep shut. For weeks, the Commission had insisted that it was not considering rationing measures within the EU. Now there is already one European country applying them and others are beginning to prepare similar mechanisms.
Drive Less, Fly Less: Brussels Prepares Europe for Energy Squeeze
EU officials are urging governments to prepare fuel-saving measures as war in the Middle East threatens global supply routes.
The Commission continues to use technical language. It speaks of “demand reduction measures,” “energy resilience” and “consumption coordination,” but behind those formulas appears a catalogue of measures that recalls another period that is still far too recent: working from home, fewer journeys, lower speed limits on roads, restrictions on the use of private cars, fewer flights and changes to business hours to consume less energy.
Dan Jørgensen, the European Commissioner for Energy, formally asked governments last Tuesday to prepare coordinated saving plans with particular attention to transport.
He argues that Europe depends on the Gulf for more than 40% of the diesel and aviation fuel it consumes. With Hormuz partially blocked, the Union is facing the disruption of almost 20% of global oil trade.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) considers this the largest disruption to the oil market in modern history. Crude oil has already risen above 100 dollars a barrel and strategic reserves are beginning to be used to prevent shortages from suddenly reaching European filling stations and airports.
Spain, Austria and other governments are trying to buy time. Madrid has reduced VAT on fuels, electricity and gas from 21% to 10%, approved aid for hauliers, farmers and fishermen, and released 11.5 million barrels from its strategic reserves. Austria has opted for tax cuts and limits on corporate profit margins. Brussels and the International Energy Agency have already released more than 400 million barrels from reserves worldwide. Budapest has imposed a price cap on motor fuel (the removal of which Brussels has already officially requested, the Hungarian government said.)
But those measures are beginning to look insufficient if the war continues.
Inside European institutions, officials are already working on a staggered, almost apocalyptic scenario. First would come purchase limits at filling stations, as in Slovenia. Then mandatory working from home for part of the public administration and recommendations to reduce travel. Later could come traffic restrictions, lower speed limits on motorways and flight cancellations. And if winter arrives with gas storage facilities still empty, Europe could enter a much more serious phase: mandatory cuts in electricity and gas consumption.
That scenario is not yet in force, but it already appears in internal winter-preparedness documents. European gas reserves are around 41% of capacity, clearly below the average of recent years. If they are not replenished before October and the winter is especially cold, Brussels is considering bringing back the tools of 2022: mandatory consumption-reduction targets, price intervention, extraordinary taxes and even controlled supply cuts.
The threat particularly affects aviation. Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary has warned that between 10% and 25% of the aviation fuel available in Europe could disappear in May and June if the war continues. He is no longer speaking simply of more expensive tickets, but of a real possibility of mass flight cancellations in the middle of summer.
Ryanair believes there is still room for manoeuvre if the Strait of Hormuz reopens before the end of April. But if that does not happen, airlines will have to start reducing routes in June, July and August. European aviation fuel depends on the Gulf for close to 30% of its supply. In some countries the vulnerability is even greater.
The consequence would be a form of indirect rationing. Fewer flights available, much more expensive tickets and priority for routes considered essential. Some airlines in Asia and Oceania have already begun cancelling operations or reducing capacity. In Brussels, nobody rules out the same happening in Europe if the war drags on for a few more weeks.
The situation is beginning to feel disturbingly familiar. Once again, working from home. Once again, less movement. Once again, the idea that citizens must reorganise their daily lives in the name of an emergency defined from above. The difference is that this time the argument would not be public health but energy.
After years of talking about the green transition, strategic autonomy and resilience, the European Union is once again discovering its most basic dependency. It still needs foreign oil to sustain its economy, its mobility and its everyday life. And when that supply fails, a temptation Europe already knew during the pandemic reappears: limiting movement and consumption as a response to crisis.
Nobody is calling it an “energy lockdown” yet. But in Brussels there are already people preparing for it.
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How many people saw this coming years in advance? Apparently the EU politicians were too lost in fairytale dreams.
We’re talking feudalism here.
And wear a mask too!
Funny how every time there’s a crisis, the first go-to is always, “Everybody’s got to stay home and stay put so we can keep an eye on you.”
I’ve said all along - Trump wants the world to think having the Hormuz Straits opened is his most important goal.
In fact, Iran is unwittingly helping him destroy the globalist/marxist EU deep-state by keeping it closed.
A) Electricity.
Too bad the EU is toothless and can do nothing to reopen the Hormuz. I’m glad Trump is making them feel useless and weak.
They forgot the best part - eat ze bugs. Everyone is doing it.
” limits on corporate profit margins.”
which is guaranteed to exacerbate shortages as global petro companies elect to sell their goods elsewhere ...
Years ago, President Trump warned these bozos that this was going to happen ... the response: they literally broke out in laughter ...
I’ll believe they’re really serious about energy usage instead of just authoritarian control of the “little people” when they tow off all the private jets at Davos and make the billionaires walk home. And if you complain that Switzerland isn’t part of the EU, they can still refuse overflight on the way home so all those jets are good for are local flights between Zurich, Geneva and St. Moritz.
France is the only Western Europe country with a decent blue-water navy:
The French Navy (Marine Nationale) is a recognized blue-water navy, capable of sustained global operations far from home waters, including power projection, carrier strike groups, and independent deployments across oceans.
Personnel Strength (Warship Complement)”Warship complement” in this context typically refers to the navy’s overall personnel strength (the total number of sailors, officers, and support staff who man its warships and enable operations).
As of late 2024/early 2025:
~38,000 military personnel (active-duty sailors and officers).
Plus ~3,000–7,000 civilians (depending on the exact reporting period and inclusion of support roles).
Total strength is often cited as over 40,000 personnel (including civilians in some figures).
Breakdown (approximate, from 2024 data):
Commissioned officers: ~5,300
Petty officers/warrant officers: ~24,500
Seamen/ratings: ~7,850
Volunteers/other: ~270
Civilians: ~3,000
These personnel support the full fleet, including major combatants, submarines, auxiliaries, naval aviation, commandos (Fusiliers Marins and Commandos Marine), and shore-based infrastructure.
Not all are embarked at once; many rotate through training, maintenance, or shore duties. France also maintains a reserve component.Fleet Context for Blue-Water OperationsThe French Navy operates a modern fleet optimized for blue-water missions (high-seas operations, expeditionary warfare, and strategic deterrence). Key assets include:
1 nuclear-powered aircraft carrier (Charles de Gaulle, with a crew of ~1,200–2,000 including air wing when fully operational).
3 amphibious assault ships (Mistral-class helicopter carriers).
~15 first-rank surface combatants (destroyers and frigates: Horizon-class air-defense destroyers, FREMM multi-mission frigates, La Fayette-class, and newer FDI frigates).
~8–10 submarines (4 SSBNs for nuclear deterrence + attack submarines).
Additional offshore patrol vessels, mine countermeasures ships, and auxiliaries (total active ships: ~130–170 depending on classification, with ~70–100 in the main action force).
Crew sizes per ship vary widely:
Large vessels like the carrier or amphibious ships: hundreds to over 1,000.
Frigates/destroyers: typically 100–200.
Submarines: 50–100+.
The navy emphasizes high availability through measures like dual crewing on some frigates, allowing more operational days at sea with a fixed number of hulls.
France’s blue-water status stems from its global EEZ (second-largest in the world), nuclear capabilities, carrier aviation, and ability to sustain task groups (e.g., recent multi-ship deployments to the Mediterranean/Red Sea).
Personnel numbers have remained relatively stable in recent years, with recruitment efforts supporting modernization under France’s military programming law (LPM).
All electric...the goal is to control all your appliances AND heating and cooling.
Heat in winter?? Nah! No one needs it.
I’ve survived all winter without heat.
I tried to be proactive and called for yearly maintenance the number on the furnace. 5 service calls later plus an electrician, I have no working furnace.
Living in the EU is going to suck even more. Even though I have citizenship rights there I’ll never exercise them.
Time to start digging that coal again Europe.
Probably sound advice.
“Too bad the EU is toothless and can do nothing to reopen the Hormuz.”
Europe makes some nice weapons (and lots of lousy leaders).
https://grokipedia.com/page/rheinmetall_sea_snake_30_mm
CB90 – Ship class Combat Boats, together with the Hensoldt Spexer 2000 3D MK III Naval radar system
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rheinmetall_Sea_Snake_30_mm
https://cuashub.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SPEXER-2000S-3D-MkIII-Radar-English.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torpedo_defense
The great Rona scare was the test run.
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