Posted on 03/18/2026 3:35:29 PM PDT by ransomnote
ransomnote: Below are several of John A Konrad V's detailed posts. There are another 14 posts in this thread series at the link which I did not copy.
Here's the source of the x.com thread posts below:
DataRepublican (small r) reposted
John Ʌ Konrad V
@johnkonrad
Let's unpack this..
What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz?
What if this war is really about ships & tariffs?
I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share any details but it’s clear everyone’s Strait of Hormuz calculus is wrong.
We need to go back to the drawing boards.
That's it. That's the tweet. Now a hypothetical 🧵 with my personal thoughts.
Mar 18, 2026
John Ʌ Konrad V
@johnkonrad
·
5h
Background on the Hormuz CrisisYou can skip this long section but know this: THIS IS ALL ABOUT SHIPS, SHIPS, SHIPS... and the US Navy giving them permission to pass.
The Strait of Hormuz is twenty-one miles wide. Two shipping channels, each two miles across, separated by a two-mile buffer. The normal traffic separation scheme runs through Iranian territorial waters, past the islands of Qeshm and Larak, where the IRGC has radar stations, missile batteries, and fast-attack craft bases overlooking every transit.
Twenty million barrels of oil and petroleum products flow through this gap every day. One-fifth of global consumption. There is no alternative. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to Yanbu and the UAE’s pipeline to Fujairah can handle maybe 5 million barrels combined. The math doesn’t work. The bottleneck is not political. It’s geological and hydrographic.
When those seven P&I clubs belonging to the International Group issued 72-hour cancellation notices for war risk coverage in the Persian Gulf, they didn’t just raise costs. They made transit impossible.
Here’s why.
P&I clubs insure roughly 90% of the world’s ocean-going tonnage. Without their coverage, ships can’t sail. Port authorities won’t let them dock. Banks won’t finance the cargo. Charterers won’t book the vessel. The entire system, from loading berth to discharge terminal, is underwritten by a chain of contracts that begins with a club in London, Oslo, or Tokyo.
When the clubs pulled war risk extensions on March 5, that chain broke. Not for a few ships. For the global fleet.
War risk premiums jumped from 0.25% to 1% of hull value, renewable every seven days. VLCC charter rates quadrupled to nearly $800,000 per day. Over 1,000 vessels are now trapped in the Persian Gulf, burning charter costs with nowhere to go. By March 3, only four ships crossed the Strait, down from a seven-day average of seventy-seven.
This is the part almost nobody in the media understands. Every TV analyst is talking about minesweepers and carrier strike groups. The binding constraint on Hormuz in the first week was not a minefield. It was spreadsheet in London.
Then Trump did something remarkable.
He ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to create a $20 billion maritime reinsurance facility, with Chubb as lead underwriter, making the United States government the insurer of last resort for Gulf shipping.
A sovereign nation has positioned itself as the backstop for war risk insurance on the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint. The DFC facility, coordinated with CENTCOM and Treasury, offers hull, machinery, and cargo coverage on a rolling basis to eligible vessels.
The United States now controls the on/off switch for the Strait of Hormuz. Not through naval firepower. Through insurance.
But here’s the tell.
The DFC facility covers hull, machinery, and cargo. It does not cover P&I liability: pollution, crew injury, third-party claims. Moody’s flagged this immediately. Without liability cover, most shipowners still won’t sail. The facility is deliberately incomplete.
If the White House wanted the Strait fully open tomorrow, it could expand the DFC facility to cover P&I liability with one directive. It hasn’t.
That gap is not an oversight. It’s a strike price on an option the administration is choosing not to exercise. Yet.
But now that insurance is mostly settled the ships still aren't sailing. Why?
That insurance isn't backed by the DFC, it's backed by a green light from the US Navy. A green light that hasn't appeared.
Read the latest @DOTMARAD Navy warning carefully: U.S.-flagged, owned, or crewed commercial vessels that are operating in these areas should maintain a minimum standoff of 30 nautical miles from U.S. military vessels to reduce the risk of being mistaken as a threat
They can't pass without Naval ships stepping aside to let them through.
John Ʌ Konrad V
@johnkonrad
·
5h
What was clear from the DOE conversation: Europe is going to have to figure this out themselves. And the White House is not sprinting to help.I was hesitant to post this earlier today but the latest truth social posts confirms some of my suspisions.
so here goes...
John Ʌ Konrad V
@johnkonrad
·
5h
Trump, the person if not the whole administration, cares deeply about restoring American maritime might.He came into office determined to restore American maritime power. He assembled the greatest collection of maritime minds in key government positions since Nixon.
He put Mike Waltz, creator of the SHIPS for America Act, as head of his National Security Council.
He created a Maritime Office in the White House.
He appointed maritime advocates to key positions throughout his administration.
He signed a sweeping Maritime Executive Order in April 2025 that directed a Maritime Action Plan across Defense, State, Transportation, and Homeland Security.
He started laser focusing on securing chokepoints: Panama, the Red Sea, Suez, the Greenland-UK Gap. He launched investigations into Gibraltar and Spain.
He created USTR actions to tariff Chinese-built and operated ships. He called CMA CGM’s CEO Rodolphe Saadé to the Oval Office and secured a $20 billion commitment.
He invited me, the owner of the world’s largest shipping news website, to the White House multiple times and got me a Pentagon press credential.
The ambition was real.
John Ʌ Konrad V
@johnkonrad
·
5h
So was the pushback.Shipowners lined up outside USTR to protest the China shipping tariffs. Almost every economist on the planet lined up against the maritime tariff proposals.
The entire US tech sector asked for China consesions and what did China want in return? A pause to USTR.
Then Signalgate. Media leaked a private convesation about attacking the Houthis and reopening the Red Sea.
The operation was stunned. Signalgate forced a reorganization. Waltz was moved to the UN. The Maritime Office was downsized. The NSC was gutted. That was the moment every maritime initiative began to stall.
What collapsed: Panama did not follow through on free transits for US ships. CMA CGM’s $20 billion commitment fell through; the company ordered vessels from China and India instead. Congress stalled on the SHIPS Act.
The UK used Chagos Islands, including Diego Garcia, to Mauritius, to get a sweetheart trade deal putting a critical naval base at risk. Key Navy appointees were slow-rolled or blocked in the Senate.
Then it came to a head at the @IMOHQ in London. In April 2025, 63 countries voted to approve the Net-Zero Framework, a global carbon pricing mechanism on every ship over 5,000 tons. In April 2025, 63 countries voted to approve the Net-Zero Framework, a global carbon pricing mechanism on every ship over 5,000 tons.
What did Trump negotators ask for? That American's tiny fleet of Merchant Ships be exept. Europe Refused claiming American maritime insterests are now irrelevant and we don't have the leverage or votes.
The U.S. walked out. In October, at the adoption vote, Trump called it a “Global Green New Scam Tax on Shipping.” The State Department threatened sanctions against any country that voted yes. 57 countries voted to delay.
The UN Carbon Tax on ships wasn't sunk entirely but it was dead in the water.
John Ʌ Konrad V
@johnkonrad
·
5h
IMO was a phyric victory, we stopped the Carbon Tax but did not get exemptions for US ships and the White House began losing the wider war with the City of LondonFirst Greenland. Then two bigger losses.
On February 20, the Supreme Court dealt Trump his biggest blow. In a 6-3 ruling, SCOTUS held that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, invalidating the “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs and the China/Canada/Mexico trafficking tariffs.
An estimated $160 billion in tariff revenue, gone. Trump imposed 15% global tariffs under Section 122, but those are capped at 150 days and require Congressional extension.
His most powerful tariff tool was taken away by the courts. If you can’t tariff your way to compliance, you need another form of leverage.
This was a huge hit for MAGA
John Ʌ Konrad V
@johnkonrad
·
5h
And there was an even bigger loss that didn't make headlines but I'm told hit trump personally and it reveals how the military academia and think tank establishment, which gets significant funding and support from Europe, fights back.In December, Trump announced the Golden Fleet initiative at Mar-a-Lago: a new class of Trump-class battleships, 30,000-40,000 tons, armed with hypersonic missiles, railguns, lasers, and nuclear cruise missiles. The USS Defiant.
A ship he designed with
@SECNAV
to hold chokepoints like Hormuz.Twenty to twenty-five hulls. The most ambitious surface combatant program since World War II.
Within 72 hours, the national security think tank world lined up to kill it. CSIS published a piece titled “The Golden Fleet’s Battleship Will Never Sail,” estimating $9 billion per hull, predicting cancellation before the first ship hits water.
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies called it a waste. Retired admirals said the Navy should buy small distributed platforms instead. Every defense analyst in Washington competed to be quoted saying it was impossible.
The military industrial establishment, with the help from allied think tanks and colleges, lined up to piss on the plans.
The same establishment that can’t build a frigate on time, that delivered the Constellation class years late before canceling it, that produced three Zumwalts instead of thirty, that has presided over the smallest Navy since World War I, lined up overnight to explain why America can’t build big ships anymore.
The same people who have no plan to close the destroyer gap that is right now undermining convoy escort operations in the Gulf.
The think tanks didn’t offer an alternative. They offered learned helplessness. And that helplessness is the context in which Hormuz is now playing out.
And the tariff decision took away a huge source of revenue to fund it without congress... which won't even vote on the bipartisan SHIPs Act.
John Ʌ Konrad V
@johnkonrad
·
5h
Now connect the dots.Strike Iran, and Europe either bends or goes dark in an energy crisis.
The European shipping community and political establishment has spent the last year dismissing, undermining and mocking every Trump maritime initiative.
They scoffed at the USTR tariffs. They laughed at the SHIPS Act. They blocked the IMO exemptions. They refused to take American maritime policy seriously.
Now their energy supply runs through an insurance facility controlled by Washington.
"Let their navies figure it out." Except everyone knows they can’t. European naval forces are too small, too slow, and too poorly equipped for sustained convoy escort operations through a contested strait.
While the MSM is busy spinning Europe's failure to participate as a vote against the war... the smart players all know they aren't sending warships because they can't.
All the European navies combined couldn't send more than three ships at a time to defend the Red Sea and an entire German Task Force sailed around Africa to avoid it.
Eventually Europe will have to capitulate to get the U.S. Navy, and the U.S. insurance backstop, to fully reopen the Strait.
And what does “capitulate” look like? The IMO carbon tax. Greenland. Tariff concessions. The SHIPS Act. Every maritime policy priority that Europe and China have been blocking for the past year.
Dear FRiends,
We need your continuing support to keep FR funded. Your donations are our sole source of funding. No sugar daddies, no advertisers, no paid memberships, no commercial sales, no gimmicks, no tax subsidies. No spam, no pop-ups, no ad trackers.
If you enjoy using FR and agree it's a worthwhile endeavor, please consider making a contribution today:
Click here: to donate by Credit Card
Or here: to donate by PayPal
Or by mail to: Free Republic, LLC - PO Box 9771 - Fresno, CA 93794
Thank you very much and God bless you,
Jim
You mean the Strait of Trump.
With all due respect, this war is about getting rid of the nukes and letting Iran know they can’t bully us or the Middle East anymore.
Europe is hopping into the fray, according to NATO NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte
The Supremes Court’s Ruth Buzzi Ginsburg Doily Crochet and Trump Hater’s Club sure has been sticking it to WE THE PEOPLE lately. Combining the Executive Branch with the Judiciary junior gods was a big mistake. The Judiciary should have never been given the power to take the reins of the Executive Branch.
The Epic War in Iran is the only way we are going to get rid of the retarded woman of colors, burkas and camels from our Congress and Judiciary.
the never were given it. they stole it.
To continue petrodollar supremacy, I wouldn’t doubt this could be a strategy
Keeping hte Strait of Hormuz closed hurts our enemies more than it hurts us.
or, it is about 5d chess...
Those that need it can open it right?
Not our job.
I agree.....
Everything Trump does is 5D chess.
Interesting.
Whether it is our job or not, reopening the Strait of Hormuz is an imperative that affects energy throughout the world. The Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the smaller Arab states, as well as any future production from Iran, all has to move through this slough of despond on it way to the world.
Cheap energy in plentiful supply is the ticket to world prosperity. But that lesson is lost on a lot of people.
Very interesting indeed. I’d like to see all this come to fruition, and Iran becomes Persia again. No nukes, and NO mullahs allowed.
“The Judiciary should have never been given the power to take the reins of the Executive Branch.”
************
Roberts is not the least bit bothered by this encroachment, yet at the same time he whines about a little criticism of his court.
That may be true from a strictly economic viewpoint, but it would likely hurt Trump politically and hurt the GOP’s prospects for the mid-terms.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
