Posted on 12/20/2025 6:02:42 AM PST by MtnClimber
It was less than three years ago — early 2023 — that I was writing about the then-universal government and industry line that electric vehicles (EVs) would soon be taking over the American car market. In April 2022 the Biden Administration had adopted aggressive vehicle mileage standards intended to be achievable only through rapid transition to EVs. Our “climate leader” states, California and New York, had then adopted regulations in August and September 2022, respectively, mandating a phase-out of sales of combustion vehicles, to culminate in 2035, after which only EVs would be allowed. In a post in January 2023, I linked to the websites of Ford and GM, where they both touted their grand plans for rapid conversion of their companies to the manufacture of mostly or entirely EVs. At that time, Ford was claiming that it would “lead America’s shift to EVs,” and would achieve 50% of its sales in that category by 2030. GM bragged about its “path to an all-electric future” by 2035.
In a post on February 23, 2023, I expressed skepticism.
It seems like all the smart people have made up their minds that the future of automobiles belongs to electric vehicles. . . . So, are electric vehicles about to sweep the country and become the dominant form of transportation? I bet against it.
Here was my reasoning:
This is just a specific instance of the general principle that it is always wise to bet against central planning of the economy. EVs may be a successful niche product for a small number of wealthy consumers, but the idea that they will fully replace gasoline powered cars in short order is the dream of central planners, who think they can implement their dream by coercion. Central planning never works, and won’t work this time either.
The past few weeks have brought a lot of news on the EV front. The short version is that even I would not have predicted how quickly and completely the EV fantasy has collapsed.
The background, of course, is that the second Trump administration took prompt steps on re-entering office to end the huge federal support that had been propping up EV sales. The large tax credit for EV purchases was ended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed on July 4 and effective after September 30, 2025. On December 3, the administration announced the roll-back of the vehicle mileage standards known as “CAFE,” to levels at which combustion vehicles can comply.
The collapse of EV sales began immediately with the end of the tax credit. On October 31, trade publication Inside EVs reported on the first month’s results after the end of the credit:
Both J.D. Power and S&P Global Mobility estimate that October's EV market share plummeted to around 5% in the U.S., from a record high of over 12% in September. The battery-powered share of sales also dropped significantly on a year-over-year basis, from over 8% in October 2024. The last time EVs made up 5% of U.S. vehicle sales was in early 2022. According to S&P Global Mobility, some 64,000 new electric vehicles were sold in October. That's an epic drop from September, when Americans bought or leased nearly 150,000 EVs as they scrambled to cash in on the expiring $7,500 incentive.
The big automakers were quick to realize that they had to do a pivot. On December 15 the Wall Street Journal reported that Ford would take a massive charge of $19.5 billion to write down its EV investments:
Ford Motor said Monday it expected to take about $19.5 billion in charges, mainly tied to its electric-vehicle business, a massive hit as the automaker retrenches in the face of sinking EV demand. The sum is among the largest impairments taken by a company and marks the U.S. auto industry’s biggest reckoning to date that it can’t realize its electric-vehicle ambitions anytime soon.
The $19.5 billion is in addition to some $13 billion of operating losses that Ford has incurred over the past 3 years trying to compete in the EV business, even with the huge government subsidies:
Ford . . . has lost $13 billion on its EV business since 2023. . . .
Over at GM, the write-down is smaller, but the change of direction is no less stark. From NBC News, October 16:
On Tuesday, General Motors reported it was taking losses totaling $1.6 billion related to planned changes to its EV rollout. The company attributed some of the change to President Donald Trump’s elimination of the $7,500 in EV purchasing incentives enacted by President Joe Biden.
Nor is the collapse of EV sales limited to Ford and GM. From the NBC piece, as to Tesla:
Plunging sales at Tesla — still the U.S. leader in EV sales — are also contributing to the weakening outlook. Its second-quarter sales dropped almost 13%, and CEO Elon Musk has warned of some “rough quarters” ahead for the company.
And a comparable phenomenon is occurring in other countries, although under differing regulatory and policy regimes. From the Wall Street Journal, October 14:
The Rest of the World Is Following America’s Retreat on EVs. Canada, U.K. and European Union back off electric-vehicle targets as economic reality sets in and even China shows cracks. . . . Carmakers argue the EV business model is an unprofitable proposition given still-high battery costs, spotty car-charging networks and dwindling government subsidies. Incentive programs have ended or have been pared back across Europe and in the U.S. and Canada.
Let’s face it, this was always ill-conceived central planning, and it was never going to work. I went back to the links that I had included to the Ford and GM websites in my January 2022 post. Both links remain active, but the excited talk about leading the way to an all-EV future has been scrubbed from both. Instead, if you go there, you will find, in the case of GM, further links to follow if you want to buy yourself an EV; and in the case of Ford, general news about the company. Reality has returned.
For only $1 billion dollars I could have told Ford this would happen.
What did anyone expect?
Idiots run this country.
I have no problem with the concept of EVs.
Technology doesn’t make them feasible yet.
Too many manufacturers built their battery models on expected government regulations of emissions out of usage in the USA.
We have got to get out from the mindset of government forcing battery cars on people.
Thr technology has to become reliable and affordable on its own and the manufacturing process as well.
Musk was very upset with Trump that the tax credit for EVs was repealed. Apparently he has gotten over it.
you are wrong.
Tesla has both the technology and the cars to sell
I love my monster old Buick...
It took Harley-Davidson one weekend to get their mind right.
I’ll take “What happens when you abandon free market principles” for $500 Alex.
Manhattan Contrarian told them for free.
They would not listen. If you could have convinced them to pay you a billion, they might have listened!
The value of “free” advice, etc.
The next round of EV will begin the day after the democrats win the White House.
Ed Begley Jr will still buy them ,LOL
Leftist states like California have the unilateral power to fine people driving ICE vehicles made after 2030 on their roads.
Overall, we are not ready to go all electric.
Batteries are an issue, raw materials for making them, the capacity of the electric grid, the cost of the vehicle, range on a charge, etc.
It’ll be a long time before they are commonplace and ICE’s are out.
In the meantime, I’ll stick with my cheaper, easy to refuel gas powered car.
Tesla has both the technology and the cars to sell
Tesla will be doing fine. It has the vision and the right stuff.
Just its autonomous self driving will bring multiple sales.
The battery tech is getting better all the time, incrementally.
There is plenty of electric car market for Tesla to sell to and expand sales.
You cannot rewrite physics with good intentions. EV’s don’t have enough range, and they use so much metal that the carbon break-even point is 100K miles. (Just about the time you have to buy a new battery pack.)
Sometimes bad idea are hard to get rid of.
The first electric car is often attributed to Thomas Parker (1884) in England for building the first production EV with rechargeable batteries, or the German Andreas Flocken (1888) for the “Flocken Elektrowagen,” considered the first real electric car; however, early experiments date back to crude vehicles by Robert Anderson (c. 1832-39), and the first US electric car was by William Morrison (1890). These early EVs were popular before gas cars became cheap.
Teslas are toys. Impressive ones, and expensive. But still toys, for the wealthy. Always have been.
Overall, we are not ready to go all electric.
Batteries are an issue, raw materials for making them, the capacity of the electric grid, the cost of the vehicle, range on a charge, etc.
It’ll be a long time before they are commonplace and ICE’s are out.
In the meantime, I’ll stick with my cheaper, easy to refuel gas powered car.
I need to consider Tesla Stock. If sales drop enough, stock prices may drop to where I should buy some.
In my opinion, the future of Tesla is bright.
Me neither, as long as they have an ICE in them.
Electric drive-trains blow the doors off of atomic transmissions.
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