Posted on 10/16/2025 9:30:56 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Unless Bitcoin upgrades its core cryptography in the next five years, the trust it has built over 16 years could be wiped out by a single quantum attack. Urgent upgrades are needed to protect the world’s leading cryptocurrency.
Satoshi Nakamoto changed how we define money. In response to the 2008 collapse of the financial institutions in which millions put their trust, Satoshi created a decentralized monetary system built on elliptic curve cryptography.
This combination of cold math and decentralization was a powerful one, attracting not only diehard skeptics but also the world’s largest financial institutions, such as BlackRock.
In the 16 years of its existence, Bitcoin has never been hacked. All of that is about to change very soon, however, with the advent of quantum computing. This is the biggest single threat to Bitcoin since its inception from the ashes of the global financial crisis.
Once firmly in the realm of science fiction, quantum computers have become so advanced that they could plausibly rip through Bitcoin’s cryptography within five years or less. Some, like quantum pundit Michele Mosca, predict it might even be possible as soon as next year.
Government agencies like the US National Institute of Standards and Technology and the National Security Agency are aiming to fully transition to quantum-secure standards by 2030. Yet the Bitcoin community appears confined to theoretical solutions, like BIP-360 (Pay-to-Quantum-Resistant-Hash) or commit-delay-reveal schemes.
The time for theorizing is over. If concrete steps to adapt the Bitcoin blockchain aren’t taken now, Bitcoin’s entire $2.2-trillion market cap could go up in smoke. All it would take would be one compromised wallet or botched transaction to erode 16 years of painstakingly built trust.
Fast forward a few months, and we currently find ourselves with around 100 quantum computers operating in the world already. McKinsey estimates there will be 5,000 by 2030. These computers aren’t just faster than the machines we’re all used to — they’re an entirely new breed of computer that runs calculations in parallel instead of in sequence.
This is lethal to classical cryptography, like the ECDSA algorithm that protects Bitcoin’s private keys. At least 30% of Bitcoin, or around 6.2 million coins, are currently sitting in pay-to-public-key (P2PK) or reused P2PK-hash addresses, which are particularly vulnerable to this quantum threat.
A breach would be catastrophic for holders, whose funds would be gone forever, and the ecosystem at large. It would prove that the unbreakable system can be broken. That’s why BlackRock recently acknowledged the threat of quantum to Bitcoin in its updated spot ETF filing. That’s why the time to act is now, before it’s too late.
On top of this, bad actors are already collecting encrypted data in preparation for Q-Day, in a move dubbed “harvest now, decrypt later.” It wouldn’t be unreasonable to assume that several attacks could happen simultaneously across the globe when Q-Day comes. When this happens, Bitcoin better be ready.
There are alternatives: hybrid solutions that focus on securing transactions first and foremost without touching the base layer, layered security models and quantum-secure key management, and infrastructure that can prepare Bitcoin for the onslaught that is certainly coming.
It isn’t a quick fix. Especially considering how conservative and slow-moving Bitcoin has been historically. Unfortunately, there is no longer any time to waste. Decisions must be made and solutions must be chosen because Bitcoin won’t survive as it is in a post-quantum future.
Satoshi gave the world a new monetary system but never said it couldn’t evolve. Now it’s up to the community to make the choice to evolve it and prepare for Q-Day, rather than waiting until it’s too late. It’s not quantum that’s the most significant risk to Bitcoin — it’s complacency.
Gold and silver are not hackable. Real stores of value for millenia.
I’ve read some stuff that says we have already reached Q-day. The govt will hold it back until they can unleash it so they are in control. Q-day will change the world. Nothing will be safe.
The Russians have already started going back to pre computer days for some of their most secretive stuff. Back to paper and physical couriers. It’s coming. Or may alaresdy be here. The govt would definitely hold this info back. Could anyone here imagine how the general population would react if they knew none of our info was safe. Nothing. The banking system would collapse overnight.
Entire banking system is vulnerable.
Social Security is vulnerable.
All pensions are vulnerable
Timelines (credible but not guarantees)
• IBM publicly projects a first large-scale fault-tolerant system before decade’s end; Google says commercial apps could appear within ~5 years, while others (e.g., Nvidia’s CEO) argue it’s more like 15–20 years—illustrating genuine uncertainty. 
• Independent market analyses expect meaningful economic impact through the 2030s if the tech keeps advancing. 
Bitcoin can be upgraded—without breaking backwards compatibility—to add post-quantum (PQ) protections, and there are already concrete proposals on the table. The idea is to introduce new address/script types that verify PQ (or hybrid PQ+Schnorr) signatures, then let users move coins into those addresses. That can be done via a soft fork. 
How it would work
• Add PQ signatures to Script/Taproot. Two well-discussed paths are (a) re-adding OP_CAT so wallets can use Lamport / hash-based signatures in Taproot script paths; or (b) a dedicated opcode (e.g., “OP_SPHINCS”) to verify SPHINCS+ (hash-based) signatures directly. Both are soft-forkable and let funds hide a PQ spend path today, then use it when needed. 
• New “quantum-resistant” addresses. BIP-360 (P2QRH) proposes address types that use NIST-standard PQ signatures (e.g., Dilithium or SPHINCS+), optionally in hybrid mode with current Schnorr, so the network can migrate gradually. 
• Standards exist. NIST finalized PQC standards in 2024 (FIPS 203/204/205), including CRYSTALS-Dilithium and SPHINCS+ for signatures—natural candidates for Bitcoin if/when adopted. 
And we are just five years from flying cars, too. Again.
I was surprised to learn there is no general formula for the perimeter of an ellipse. In the special case of a circle we have the number pi . Even pi has no finite formula. It is generated by summing up the terms of an infinite series. Pi is now know to 100 trillion places. Ellipses occur all over our Universe. It is the path objects in orbit follow. Even that is an approximation because some energy is radiated away in the form of gravity waves. For the Earth that is about 120 watts. About the power of a typical incandescent light bulb.Given Earth's total kinetic energy the sun will become a White Dwarf long before the Earth could have spiraled in .
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