Posted on 09/30/2025 8:36:05 AM PDT by MtnClimber
A lunar impact could generate debris that damages key satellites, the ISS…and potentially any lunar installations that had been constructed as part of the new space race.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a near-Earth object approximately 53–67 meters wide that was discovered in December 2024.
While initial models suggested a small chance of Earth impact, refined tracking now indicates that there is no risk to Earth, but about a 4% probability that it will strike the Moon on December 22, 2032.
Earlier this year, asteroid 2024 YR4 drew global attention when its estimated chance of striking Earth in 2032 reached 3%. Although further observations have since ruled out any risk to our planet, interest in the asteroid has not faded.
As the asteroid moved out of range of even the most advanced telescopes, calculations left a remaining 4% probability that it could impact the Moon on December 22, 2032.
This impact risk is expected to stay unchanged until the asteroid becomes visible again in mid-2028.
The Moon lacks an atmosphere to burn up incoming objects, so even a modest-sized asteroid such as 2024 YR4 can make a direct impact. A lunar strike from this object has the potential to generate enough debris to threaten satellites and the International Space Station (ISS).
Scientists are considering several options to address this possibility. Legal Insurrection readers may recall NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, which successfully altered the trajectory of an asteroid.
However, this approach has been deemed impractical for the 2024 YR4. So a “nuclear option” is being considered.
Nuclear explosives presented a better option as these “are generally capable of handling larger asteroids and/or shorter warning times than other methods, all else being equal,” Brent Barbee, one of the researcher’s behind the paper, told Newsweek.
The team suggested the deployment of two nuclear explosive devices—one just “in case it was needed”—each five to eight times stronger than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, according to Futurism.
These would be launched toward the asteroid in an attempt to disrupt it before it reaches the moon.
The plan, according to the study, is more feasible than attempting a precision deflection mission that could inadvertently redirect the asteroid toward Earth.
Yes, keeping a “city killer” away from Earth would be an essential part of the plan. And, I would like to note that for the “climate crisis” minded that impacts of asteroids in this size range have the potential to inject large amounts of dust and aerosols into the atmosphere, resulting in global temperature reductions of several degrees, reduced sunlight, lower precipitation, and severe ozone depletion for a few years. This would be a real example of a “climate crisis”.
But I digress.
Nuke it in orbit. It's the only solution. https://t.co/i01oJ0i0lV
— Phineas Fahrquar (@irishspy) September 24, 2025
Meanwhile, the object will continue to be monitored closely.
They want to redirect missions like Psyche or OSIRIS-APEX to gather crucial data on the asteroid during its close Earth-Moon flyby in 2028, as it will help them nail down the asteroid’s path and risk.
The researchers have proposed a “kinetic disruption mission” to blow up the space rock with “nuclear explosive devices”. According to a report by Futurism, the team proposed sending two 100-kilotonne nuclear devices to the asteroid. The device will detonate with a force roughly five to eight times more powerful than the atomic bombs dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945.
In short, scientists want to replicate what we saw in the Hollywood sci-fi thriller Armageddon to tackle the asteroid 2024 YR4.
And, who knows…perhaps there will be lunar installations present in 2032 that could be hit. Artemis II, the crewed fly-by of the Moon, is now slated for 2026.
NASA officials have said that the Artemis II mission will launch no later than April 2026, taking the four astronauts on a 10-day trip circumnavigating – but not landing on – the moon.
In an update at a press conference Sept. 23, officials confirmed that not only is the mission on track for launch by April, but could potentially be moved up to February.
While no moon landing is in store for the Artemis II astronauts, the mission serves a vital role in testing the systems and hardware on the spacecraft needed for future expeditions to the lunar surface.
The first of those could happen no earlier than 2027 with the much more ambitious Artemis III mission, which will return astronauts to the surface of the moon for the first time in more than half a century.
Integrity.
That's what the Artemis II astronauts have decided to name their Orion spacecraft, which will take them from @NASAKennedy on their journey around the Moon and return them safely back to Earth. pic.twitter.com/EDwyOYkOeK
— NASA (@NASA) September 24, 2025
Get your safety helmets early.
Send Rosie to it.
And Bill Gates.
Potential massive fragmentation of a near earth object.
Sounds like a good plan to me.
That ‘Three Body Problem’ rears it’s ugly head............
If you ‘nuke’ an asteroid, where will all those shattered pieces go?................
Some of the fragments that are ejected tangentially to earths orbit will likely be threats themselves when the earth passes through that space one year later.
Although, I expect the experts who propose this would suggest that the fragments will be too small to cause serious damage
Instead of a nuke, how about a solar sail attached to the thing. Six years of the slight push away from us should be enough.
What could go wrong?
They will enter the moon's gravitational pull and form a big, beautiful ring system that will be visible from Earth.
If I understand physics correctly, A nuke displaces the atmosphere at supersonic speeds and that is what causes the damage. Would a nuke in space where there is no atmosphere even do damage to the asteroid?
You are right that there would be no atmosphere to heat and expand. The material in the spacecraft would vaporize and create some blast effect and some asteroid material would vaporize and create blast. I am not sure this would be better than a kinetic strike.
Bruce Willis is too old and infirm now to lead the mission; it’s doomed to failure.
I would bet that someone is calculating how to nudge the orbit enough to capture the asteroid into a high earth orbit.
Similar calculations have been performed before to use lunar or Earth gravity assists to slow and modify the trajectory.
In high Earth orbit mining can begin. Typical asteroid composition can be of several useful types. Nickel-iron asteroids also contain platinum group metals as well. Carbonaceous chondrites have volatiles such as water. Water can be converted to hydrogen and oxygen for propellants.
How could the orbit be modified? This asteroid is small enough that a chemical rocket can probably be adequate for the tiny change in trajectory.
There is also a type of propulsion called a mass driver. A mass driver would use small amounts of the surface material of the asteroid to eject electromagnetically. The material is accelerated using a short electromagnetic track and is solar powered. The thrust is small but adequate to modify the orbit.
This asteroid could be a way to test mining and utilizing extraterrestrial material.
A threat can be converted to an opportunity.
Ad astra
Translation: Scientists say, "give us more money!"
Are these the same scientists that told us we had 12 years to live if we didn’t stop driving cars - 13 years ago?
We will first have to factor in what the aliens on 31/Atlas have in store for us...
This is good. We need lots of target practice runs to prepare for the “big one”.
I do hope they know what they are doing. Hippocrates: “First do no harm”.
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