Posted on 09/06/2025 8:04:44 AM PDT by Signalman
A new poll conducted by Leger360 between August 29 and 31, 2025, is causing controversy in the world of U.S. politics, as it projects that California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, is the frontrunner for the 2028 presidential election.
The results of the survey, which were shared on social media, pitted Newsom against potential GOP candidates, including Vice President JD Vance, former President Donald Trump, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The California governor narrowly leads the president by a score of 48 percent to 44 percent, 47 percent to Vance’s 46 percent, and 49 percent to Rubio’s 44 percent.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, which makes these potential races extremely close. Many conservatives are already greeting the survey’s results with a healthy dose of skepticism, primarily due to the methodology employed, as well as the context of Newsom’s political record and recent actions.
Some have pointed out red flags that raise questions about the credibility of the poll. They note that Leger360’s track record, which was the subject of a study completed by the “Journal of Election Studies,” found that Leger overestimated Democratic support by a total of 5 percent. According to the study, this was the result of oversampling urban voters in online panels.
Experts point out that if the current numbers are adjusted to factor this in, Trump’s support could rise to 49 percent, Vance’s to 51 percent, and Rubio’s to 49 percent, which changes the entire narrative and some of the conclusions drawn from the poll.
As MAGA supporters have all but crowned Vance as the man to take over the mantel of leadership for the movement, it’s likely that, with all of the information taken into context, the biggest threat to Newsom’s potential campaign is the vice president.
Newsom recently attempted to reach out to popular conservative podcast host and founder of Talking Point USA, Charlie Kirk, which signals a shift to broaden support. However, many on the political right believe the move is opportunistic, especially given his extreme left-wing policies, like climate regulations, which have strained his state’s economy.
Conservative commentator Arthur Morgan has waved off the results of the Leger survey as nothing more than Democratic propaganda. Others are also viewing them with caution, specifically citing the above-mentioned bias of the company that produced the poll.
“H1B problem in this country and I am disappointed that Trump hasn’t addressed it “
He’s actually escalating the problem. Import 600,000 CHINESE is a good idea? Export that many Chinese, and at least that many Indians.
Anywhere east of Sacramento, Newsom is as popular as genital warts.
We don't have time.
If Newsome is elected in 2028, we're sunk.
If Vance is elected in 2028, it will be GOP 3-Blind-Mice politics as usual and the Dems will almost certainly capture the subsequent presidency like after both Bush's and we're still sunk.
Like the Titanic - glug glug glug...
Following on popular Trump's coattails is the only chance that I see for Vivek.
Nevertheless, I put my trust in the Divine Providence of God Almighty who miraculously birthed our beloved nation in 1776 against all odds and will restore her Free Constitutional Republic now against all odds.
It will be interesting to see how He does it.
It's not man's work, it's God's.
Right now he’s the only one running. Vance is the obvious Republican nominee, but how much does anyone even hear about him?
There is a BIGGER unconstitutional and totalitarian federal gov't problem in this country.
First things first.
The H1B won't sink America but the totalitarian unconstitutional feds will - BIG TIME AND QUICKLY.
“First things first.”
************************
Yes let’s see how he does as Ohio governor first before we even think of supporting him for President.
Like we did with Trump, right?
We didn't have time before Trump and we're outta time now.
I’d like to see any poll taken 4 years prior to an election that is 100% accurate.
4 years ago, Biden was on the decline due to Afghanistan but the public was convinced Trump staged an insurrection.
Even in early 2024, Trump was trailing Biden.
Then Biden lost the debate, and then someone took a shot at Trump.
Trump surged.
Then Biden stepped aside and Harris entered the Rollerball arena.
Trump went on Joe Rogan. Kamala went on Howard Stern.
Trump won.
There’s a lotta ball left to play.
Before Trump won most polls showed he would lose - and that his supporters were leaving him. This piece stinks of liberal BS...
Best I can tell in my recent memory, only GW Bush had the early lead and maintained it until the end.
But this was only a couple of years out at best.
All of that is wonderful, but the fact is Newsome has been on a focused, determined, and steady rise for decades just like Obama was, with one thing in mind - the Presidency.
Newsome, like Obama, is the Dem’s 12th Imam - the Savior and the destroyer of America’s Free Constitutional Republic.
Something BIG - like Trump’s predecessor - has to beat him and WIN back America’s Free Constitutional Republic.
Vance is not that guy.
The only one on the horizon so far is Vivek and we’re quickly running out of time.
We’re in God’s hands now.
ROFWL Predictions three years before the event are just stupid!!!
Vivek doesn’t have the support Trump had. He still needs to prove himself more before he can win the presidency. I realize time is short but you really can’t rush these things as much as you’d like too. Besides I think it way too early to even speculate on what’s likely to happen in ‘28. People here probably consider me a conspiracy nut of sorts but I believe we are on the cusp of a financial collapse and WW3. In such a scenario it’s hard to predict who will be popular in ‘28. If half the country becomes dirt poor because of a failing dollar the people might vey well succumb to certain leftist policies. So like I said it’s too early to even speculate what the driving issues might be in ‘28.
Leger Opinion Services
(Cut & Paste from their website)
Our story began in Montreal in 1986
Our president, Jean-Marc Léger, and his father, Marcel Léger, decided to start a market research company with the goal of giving a voice to the people.
Since then, we’ve expanded across Canada and the U.S., acquiring more than a dozen companies along the way.
We’re proud to have more than 600 dedicated employees who are committed to serving our diverse clients from coast to coast.
Contributing to improving DEI within Canadian government bodies
Diversity, equity, and inclusion
We actively integrate diverse thoughts, perspectives, life experiences, and cultural insights into our research practices and internal company culture.
Leger empowered Health Canada and the Public Health Agency to enhance their public communication approach during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methodology
The methodology was meticulous, using Web surveys and virtual focus groups, including various demographic segments, such as racialized and indigenous populations, and 2SLGBTQIA+ people.
The rationale behind this inclusive approach was to capture a broad spectrum of experiences and responses to the pandemic,
recognizing the unique impacts on and concerns of minority populations.
Neither did GWH Bush have the support Reagan had. GWH Bush won the 1988 election ONLY because he was wildly popular Reagan's VP.
Vivek's and America's golden opportunity was for Trump to name him as VP. IMO, Trump blew it.
I don't know how Vivek can rise without being Trump's VP but he's the ONLY guy on the horizon who is declaring the only thing that will bring recovery to America's Free Constitutional Republic which is what MAGA is, or should be, all about.
We're in God's hands now.
As far as WWIII we're almost there but not quite yet, IMO. See https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4338959/posts?page=19#19.
Yes your analysis is fine.
But you’re missing that nothing stays fixed.
Did anyone anticipate Trump surviving an assassination attempt?
Nobody expected the MSM to turn on Biden.
Newsome could get bit by a black widow and die.
Or be caught eating a manatee.
This is akin to climate scientists forecasting temperatures.
Afghanistan was a disaster but Americans were not thinking about that war and the messy withdrawal of our troops.
It was all about inflation and open borders and Trump is strong on those issues so that was why he was able to get back in the game.
No Rubio under any circumstances. He will stab us in the back on immigration and who knows what else. Trump Jr. for VP to Vance. He has a sting when he speaks like his dad. I hope he has been preparing for prime time.
You’re probably the only Evangelical on here who supports Vivek lol. In any event I don’t believe in dispensationalist theology but I do agree that things are starting to line up to where events in the Mideast/Israel are ready to pop off and possibly initiate WW3. It’s either that or the EU starting a direct war against Russia. Whatever the case we are certainly living in interesting (and scary) times.
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