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Posted on 08/19/2025 9:02:58 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
Putin probably has all the pro-Russian territory of Ukraine already. Ukraine will not give up territory without a fight.
Putin will probably effectively insist to the end that:
1. Russian assets to be returned by the EU, US & UK (over a specified time),
2. Ukraine to not be a threat to Russia as follows: a. Ukraine to be neutral,
b. Ukraine not to be a member of any military alliance,
c. Ukraine not to have secret treaties,
d. no foreign military personnel, or any that have been employed by a NATO member government, to be on territory under control of Ukraine, or in its airspace, or on/in/above its territorial waters,
e. no nuclear weapons in Ukraine, or within its power,
f. no nuclear weapons development or production activity in Ukraine, or within its control,
g. no missiles with a diameter of more than that of a Patriot or long-range, or components thereof, to be in Ukraine, or within its control,
h. no long-range drones in Ukraine, or under Ukrainian control or in Ukrainian airspace,
i. no drones under Ukrainian control to be within 12km of striking distance of Crimea, the Kerch bridge, Moscow, or Saint Petersburg,
j. no stealth aircraft to be on territory under the control of Ukraine, or the airspace thereof,
excluding a certain number of F-35s to be flown only by persons only possessing Ukrainian citizenship,
3. full civil rights & anti-discrimination law protection for Russian ethnics and Russian language speakers resident in Ukraine,
4. Ukraine to enact and retain German-style anti-Nazi laws,
5. sanctions to be removed after a certain period of Russian good behavior.
Zelensky might insist that:
1. the agreement should state that it is a long-term armistance meant to preserve human life and property and that no territory is to be considered as ceded or any claim to territory relinquished,
2. Ukraine be allowed to have an unlimited number of trained military personnel of Ukrainian citizenship, artillery pieces, artillery shells, anti-aircraft guns, anti-aircraft missiles of types now in its service and future equivalents, tanks and drones of a range of less than a certain number of kilometers,
3. monetary aid from the US and EU to enable Ukraine to retain in military service its battle-hardened military personnel,
[I suggest up to $12 billion/year, up to a total of $200 billion.]
4. the Ukrainian right to buy listed weapons [Patriots, anti-aircraft weapons, artillery shells, missiles] from the US, EU and possibly the UK at prices in line with what the source entity government(s) would pay, if such would be in the interest of EU security,
[That's a security guarantee that I think EU citizens and Americans can live with.]
5. sanctions on Russia to be removed only after a certain period of Russian good behavior.
Both sides will insist that all POWs be yielded up within a period of time.
The front lines should those of any day after August 18th selected by Trump as justified by US intelligence evidence. The US should identify these lines to both parties ASAP so they can agree to them.
There’s actually very little to negotiate:
1. the base schedule for the return of Russian assets,
and asset return rate changes to ensure the good behavior of Russians and Ukrainians,
including their paramilitaries and other irregulars,
2. possible plebiscites to allow Ukraine to recover pro-Kiev areas,
3. the range limit for missiles and drones,
4. the allowable number of Ukrainian F-35s[48?],
and a possible reduction in size of their weapons bays and fuel tanks,
so they can't carry nuclear weapons to Moscow,
5. demilitarized zones, perhaps one kilometer on each side of the settlement front lines,
6. partially demilitarized zones, perhaps
a. no drone within range of the demilitarized zones,
b. no armored vehicle within five kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
c. no concentration in excess of 1,000 troops or 10 armored vehicles within any square kilometer area within 10 kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
d. no concentration in excess of 2,000 troops or 20 apparently armored vehicles within any 4 square kilometer area within 20 kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
e. no concentration in excess of 10,000 troops and 500 associated vehicles within any 10 square kilometer area within 50 kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
f. no stealth aircraft within 50 kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
7. electricity arrangements,
8. pipeline transmission through Ukraine,
9. EU/UK/US funding and weapons provision to Ukraine,
10. the time period Russians must behave well before sanctions are removed.
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In all honesty, no one cares what you think. President Trump and Vlad ( not Zelensky nor the EU fools) is the core, the ones deciding.
Should Zelensky decide to NOT give up the ethnic Russian provinces for Peace, Vlad will let the Reality on the front decide. Either way, Vlad keeps his Russian Provinces, and there is little the West can do about it.
Checkmate.
I also suspect a peace deal is possible, but I am very skeptical that it would be lasting.
Almost everything Putin is asking for is a big billboard invitation to regroup and attack again. No military treaties or defense agreements, no defense memberships, etc. etc.
If Russia wants all these things, then there has to be some for of deterrence built into the agreement in some other way. It threatens WWiii, so most people don’t like it, but a failure by Russia to adhere to the agreement should have it explicitly written in that they will forfeit the pact in toto and be subject to any manner of punitive action.
Unfortunately, I do NOT see Putin relinquishing ANY held territory and therefore Zelenskyy not agreeing to a deal.
Putin is doing what Arafat did in the Clinton era. Make his demands such that peace does NOT happen. The current Russian economy and his personal survival now depend on the continuation of the war.
Technocracy doesn’t matter.
This is about POWER.
Putin will “honor” the details of any agreement as long as he “respects” the POWER behind the agreement.
In that case, it would be Trump but Trump has a shelf life of less than four years.
The question currently on the table is how much do Zelensky and the Euroweenies respect Trump’s POWER.
There is a very short time window here.
Putin and Trump will DICTATE the terms and each will abide by those as long as they are both in power.
When one leaves the stage, it’s back to the conflict which goes back centuries.
You should have listed your thread as VANITY.
Which is what it is.
Zelensky can get off his azz, go on offense and retake his territory from
Ruzzia. That’s an option.
Of course he would have to increase his FORCED Conscription Squads to snatch
Military age men off the streets of Kiev to fill his warm body needs.
Who gets bragging rights?
I am reminded that Ukraine signed a deal to hand over their nukes in exchange for a guarantee from Russia that they would never invade.
That’s why he was noncommittal in his telephone talk with Trump yesterday.
You’re pipe dreaming. Putin wants land and worth, and Zelenskyy is willing to send his people to hara-kiri to keep his face and his wealth. This is not a “deal” of ending a war. It’s just another step in its continuance and the displaying of two monsters.
It is an equal possibility either or both will break any agreement at any time. Putin is arrogant and dishonorable and Zelenskyy is crooked and self serving. Together they make a liberal.
wy69
“I am reminded that Ukraine signed a deal to hand over their nukes in exchange for a guarantee from Russia that they would never invade.”
The people paid from Moscow guarding them would have disabled the nukes so they would not explode without work before handing them over.
Pouring a can of soda into one would probably require remanufacture.
There are certain requirements that have to met to make a nuclear bomb explode well that cannot be mentioned in a public forum.
lmao
Too complicated
The front lines should those of any day after August 18th selected by Trump as justified by US intelligence evidence.
[That’s to end the incentive to fight, basically creating a ceasefire.]
sanctions on Russia to be removed only after a certain period of Russian good behavior.
[That’s to get the Russians in line]
the base schedule for the return of Russian assets,
and asset return rate changes to ensure the good behavior of Russians and Ukrainians,
including their paramilitaries and other irregulars,
[That’s to keep them both in line - the Russians want their assets back and Ukrainian misbehavior might unpleasantly result in faster asset return to the Russians.]
the Ukrainian right to buy listed weapons [Patriots, anti-aircraft weapons, artillery shells, missiles] from the US, EU and possibly the UK at prices in line with what the source entity government(s) would pay, if such would be in the interest of EU security,
[That’s to get the Ukrainians to sign on, and to be peaceful. A Ukraine that upsets Russia again might get invaded again, which would cause the EU’s security buffer of Ukraine to be put at risk again.]
Thanks for sharing your fantasies and skills as an author of fiction. Have you ever tried writing a novel?
You have that backwards, it is Zelensky who needs the war to stay in power.
Suh and arrogant one you are.
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