Trump is Taking us into World War III listening to the Wrong People

Armstrong Economics ^ | 4 Aug 25 | Martin Armstrong

[delta7]

This is the problem. Whitaker’s arrogance thinks that the US is so powerful that it can crush Russia without ever firing a shot and calling Putin “sick and twisted” when we started this war, and there were TWO peace deals which the WEST broke – not Russia. I have NEVER in my entire life witnessed such INCOMPETENT diplomacy.

The Neocons have been instructing Trump to be strong and yield nothing to Putin, and he will fold. Peace is easy. Just HONOR the Minsk Agreement. But this is a war to destroy Russia, and Trump is a fool who is being played just like George Bush, Jr.

China has already said that they will NOT let Russia lose BECAUSE they know they will be next. The ONLY way to defend against our insane Neocons is to pull together as a united front with Russia, China, North Korea, and others against the West. Both India and China have previously been the financial capitals of the world. Just as Europe lost that because of two world wars, we will do the same.

These Neocons have waged endless wars, and they have lost EVERY SINGLE ONE! They think this will be just a war against Russia, and they can tell China to wait for its turn. This is a war against NATO and China, along with everyone else tired of this Neocon arrogance, will join to eradicate the West.

These insane and arrogant Neocons are just full of themselves. They are NEVER the ones on the battlefield. They send everyone else’s children to die for their aspirations of world dominance and glory. Make no mistake. They seek what they accuse their adversaries of doing – the conquest of the world.

The computer shows shift changes as of next week, escalating into the week of the 18th. So let me see, Trump will impose crushing sanctions on China for buying Russian oil? They are supposed to bend the knee and say Oh, sorry. We will buy from the US instead? That would be a massive loss of face. Every ultimatum coming out of Trump’s mouth is pushing China and Russia closer together.

Here is Tony Blair’s Apology for listening to the NEOCONS.

Here is General Wesley Clark, who was shocked when the Neocons told him they wanted to conquer the entire Middle East with American troops.….

[ansel12]

You post that over and over, you think the world would be better off run by women?

[adorno]

I am a very good student of history.

If you say so. ;)

Those who profit from war act as a third party to instigate war between the other two parties that would naturally NOT have happened.

That's a lot of horses--t.

If two parties decide to go to war, they will do so with whatever weapons they have at their disposal at the moment, including rocks/stones and sticks and bows-and-arrows and their fists. Those warring parties will look for an advantage, and weapons manufacturers are then recruited. Which came first? The war or the weapons?

People don't first build weapons and then look for wars to use them in. Duh!

I see you are a master at misinformation!

If you define the truth as misinformation, then you would be right. ;)

On the other hand, I see you as one in dire need of common sense. No logic whatsoever in what you believe.

Do you even know how to spell 'logic'? Look it up. ;)

[adorno]

It was Carter's inflation of oil prices that paid for the USSR's 600-ship navy and it was Reagan's deregulation of oil that brought those prices down and killed the Soviet Union.

Whatever happened in the 80s with oil prices and the USSR's use of it, was not critically important then for their survival; now oil sales are critical to Russia's survival.

[adorno]

I am a very good student of history.

Reading or studying history, is not the same as learning from history. ;)

Those who profit from war act as a third party to instigate war between the other two parties that would naturally NOT have happened.

That's a lot of horses--t.

If two parties decide to go to war, they will do so with whatever weapons they have at their disposal at the moment, including rocks/stones and sticks and bows-and-arrows and their fists.

Those warring parties will look for an advantage, and weapons manufacturers are then recruited.

Which came first? The war or the weapons?

People don't first build weapons and then look for wars to use them in. Duh!

[Old Yeller]

All Putin has to do is hit Trump in his ego.

[Carry_Okie]

Whatever happened in the 80s with oil prices and the USSR's use of it, was not critically important then for their survival;

The Soviet Union did not survive it so I don't know what you mean by "survival." As to the criticality of oil sales, you should add weapons to that cash flow. American and Israeli disposal of their AA radar capability in Iran did that a serious blow. Were I Modi in India, I'd think twice about buying Russian planes now. China is done stealing all there was of Russian technologies they wanted. That leaves the Pakistan and Iranian tier, which isn't looking too good these days either. I'd bet that leaves them eying Ukrainian grain sales more seriously.

[Carry_Okie]

People don't first build weapons and then look for wars to use them in. Duh!

The NAZIs did.

[USA-FRANCE]

“When robots take over the world, there will still be wars, because they will have been programmed by humans.”

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><

Interesting comment!

If robots follow a central AI mainframe, two possibilities emerge:

AI repeats human errors — just more efficiently.
In this case, wars would continue, perhaps even escalate. Because if the AI inherits human biases, rivalries, or strategic instincts (even unintentionally), then conflict would simply be automated and amplified. Intelligence alone doesn’t necesarly eliminate error, it can just make it faster and more precise...

OR...

AI transcends human limitations.
Suppose AI evolves to a level where it applies a kind of “hyper-rational common sense” — a synthesis of all human knowledge, science, history, ethics, and even philosophy. It might recognize that armed conflict is ultimately self-defeating and that cooperation yields better outcomes. In doing so, it could offer humanity a unifying vision — perhaps even rediscovering spirituality or “God” not as a dogma, but as a rational, universal framework for unity.
While religion has historically been used as a tool for division and war, a reimagined, logic-driven belief system — one rooted in common human values rather than manipulated by men — could serve as a global moral compass. It could guide humanity toward peace, sustainability, and coexistence beyond cultural, racial, or ideological lines.

But achieving this would require an AI far beyond what currently exists — something so immensly powerful that it becomes WISE to near perfection.

Just some speculative philosophy. 🙂

[Glad2bnuts]

Excellent analysis. 100%

[Glad2bnuts]

Wars of a large magnitude, start with small steps. President Trump is taking those small steps.

[BroJoeK]

Carry_Okie: "Trump is walking a tightrope in Ukraine with both Zelenski and Putin being so intractable.
The former is confident in the EU’s fear of Putin while he’s running out of men.
Putin is confident in his ability to sell oil to run his grinder with a larger supply of meat and material."

adorno: "Ukraine can continue the fight as long as the U.S. and Europe keep up the military and economic aid.
Russia can keep up the fight, but only as long as Putin remains hardheaded and in denial of the huge losses Russia has suffered."

There have been many conflicting reports on the numbers of Russian and Ukrainian casualties.
In a war of attrition -- since Russians outnumber Ukrainians by at least 3 to 1 -- Ukrainians need to achieve three Russian casualties for every one of their own, and most reported numbers don't show 3:1 -- rather, 2:1 or even 1:1 are commonly reported.

But now there is Pres. Trump who recently tweeted (Truth Social) the following numbers for 2025, year-to-date:

1. 112,500 Russian forces killed.

2. 8,000 Ukrainian forces killed.

3. 14:1 ratio of Russians to Ukrainians killed YTD.

How accurate are Trump's numbers?
Nobody knows, but they strongly suggest that Ukraine is not at all losing Putin's War of Attrition.

[adorno]

AI repeats human errors — just more efficiently.

AI only reflects what it's been programmed for, and what data/information has been fed into it, and whatever analysis humans wish to get from all of it. AI is not human, though humans created it. It would be like saying cars act human because humans created them. Car and AI only follow directions.

In this case, wars would continue,

AI would be programmed to assist in fighting more efficiently and with fewer casualties if possible, with the end goal being 'winning' or causing a warring party to surrender. But the real priority of any warfare AI is to avoid war. If war is not avoided, that AI had no intelligence at all, and it might as well have been a bomb or a missile or a drone that just blasts people or destroy buildings and equipment.

perhaps even escalate.

At that point, it's just dumb AI and not much more than a weapon. There are already a massive number of weapons which can destroy and kill. Not need for AI as a weapon, which if used, just about all warring parties would be able to develop.

Because if the AI inherits human biases,

No inheritance. Just built-in methods, which the human element developed. It's NOT POSSIBLE for AI to be intelligent as a human. Humans can be biased, but robots and AI cannot be. A bias indicates human emotions, and software and machinery have no emotions.

rivalries, or strategic instincts (even unintentionally),

Again, strategies and instincts are only available in humans, and instincts are the result of evolution, which even some of the lowest form of animals possess. AI and robots can only 'evolve' from knowledge of humans. and often from trial and error.

then conflict would simply be automated and amplified.

That's been happening for ages, with weaponry getting better and automatic, like cruise missiles which follow the terrain and GPS; drones and ballistic missiles also have 'intelligence' built into them; but all that all weapons follow as 'intelligence' is a built-in series of instructions.

Intelligence alone doesn’t necesarly eliminate error,

If humans, who are not perfect, do build AI weaponry, it's going to be a lot more error-prone than the humans who built them.

it can just make it faster and more precise...

Weapons have been faster and more precise, and that's been the case way before the hype of AI.

AI transcends human limitations.

NOT possible! AI can NEVER be more intelligent than those that 'create' it.

Suppose AI evolves to a level where it applies a kind of “hyper-rational common sense”

Common sense is a human trait, and it can't be programmed into machines, no matter how fast they are or how big they are or how much information they can chew through.

— a synthesis of all human knowledge, science, history, ethics, and even philosophy.

No computerized set of instructions (or algorithm) can get even close to human intelligence, much less attain superiority. Not ever. Computers or algorithms, AI or otherwise, can only look at what humans encountered or designed or built or imagined before. There can never be AI that 'thinks' on its own. Would an AI empowered robot or device ever be able to look up at the heavens and 'wonder' what is out there and how it all came to be, or if there is a creator for all that exists?

It might recognize that armed conflict is ultimately self-defeating and that cooperation yields better outcomes.

No need for AI to make that kind of decision, which humans already know the answer to.

In doing so, it could offer humanity a unifying vision perhaps even rediscovering spirituality or “God” not as a dogma, but as a rational, universal framework for unity.

No AI will ever have or even understand spirituality. No AI can ever have religion or understand religion. Humanity already knows what the problems are, and what the solutions are or should be. An entity infused with AI is not going to dictate to use what the solutions are, if we are the ones that created the AI. We might as well look into a mirror and tell the person in that mirror to solve all our problems. The person in the mirror is just a reflection of what we are and can't do any better than the original 'us'. AI can only contain the answers we already know about.

While religion has historically been used as a tool for division and war,

Religion is just one of the many causes of wars.

a reimagined, logic-driven belief system

Robots can't understand what religion is. Logic in humans is burdened by religion and beliefs. AI cannot get religion or a belief system. The logic in AI is a set of algorithms, and no emotion can ever be programmed. Until AI is infused with emotions (not possible, btw), it cannot solve the millions of problems that humans have with co-existing.

one rooted in common human values rather than manipulated by men

No AI can ever understand 'common human values'. Humans are the most complex "living' things in the known universe, and no human understands all the complexities of humans, to be able to program them into an AI systems.

— could serve as a global moral compass.

It would not be a 'moral' compass at all. We could decide to let a set of programmed instructions 'decide' for us, but then, it would be a decision which humans could have come up with without pretending that AI knows better.

It could guide humanity toward peace,

It would still be a set of algorithms which humans decided to abide by, but in the end, it would still be something that the entire world would have to agree on. But still, it's not AI that made the decisions.

sustainability, and coexistence beyond cultural, racial, or ideological lines.

You mean, humans would have to decide to stop being humans. That's the only way YOUR AI would work. The planet would revert, back to the prehistoric times when humans, and perhaps not even mammals existed. Even animals of all kinds have conflicts within their own species.

If humans had to cease being human, what would be the point? AI is for simple decision-making and just as an assistant; not to make major decisions for humanity.



You just describes that a god would be like. AI can never get to that point. AI can never even get to human level intelligence, which requires all of the emotions which humans possess. No AI can ever be human-like. In fact, to get to human level intelligence would require a higher intelligence to create it. And to create intelligence higher than what humans posses, would require that humans understand what a higher intelligence is capable of; iow, not possible at all.

Just some speculative philosophy.

You done fine. Humanity and AI appreciate your efforts. ;)

[adorno]

The Soviet Union did not survive it so I don't know what you mean by "survival."

The Soviet Union is still around. It's now known as the Russian Federation, but with fewer republics. A rose by any other name.... Or, evil by any other name...

China is done stealing all there was of Russian technologies they wanted.

Russia had very little 'Russian made' technology to steal. Most of China's 'new' technology was stolen and copied from the U.S. and Japan and S.Korea and other western countries. Heck even a lot of what Russia had/has in the technology front, was stolen from the west.

[dfwgator]

The Soviet Union is still around. It’s now known as the Russian Federation,

---

Not as if the Tsars were saints, neither.

[Carry_Okie]

The Soviet Union is still around. It's now known as the Russian Federation, but with fewer republics. A rose by any other name.... Or, evil by any other name...

If what you need is a subjective definition to reinforce a bald faced assertion, this conversation is over.

[adorno]

If what you need is a subjective definition to reinforce a bald faced assertion, this conversation is over.

Why so sensitive?

And what's wrong with stating the truth?

[adorno]

Not as if the Tsars were saints, neither.

The Soviets, the Russians, the Czars, whatever they were or are now, have been a pain in the rear to the world, especially to their nearby neighbors, for many decades, and even centuries.

[dfwgator]

Czar Nicky deserves his share of the blame for starting WWI.

[BroJoeK]

USA-FRANCE: "The Minsk accords were a total scam.
The Minsk Accords, while intended to address the conflict in eastern Ukraine, have significant shortcomings that made them massively detrimental to Ukraine, especially regarding the issue of Crimea."

Today, the 2014-2015 Minsk Accords are mainly Russian propaganda weapons against Ukraine and the West.
Even on Free Republic, we see propagandists claiming: "oh, if only Ukraine had lived up to the Minsk agreements, the war never would happen."

Problems with Minsk Accords included, they:

1. Were poorly written
2. Did not recognize Russia as a belligerent
3. Did not deal with Crimea
4. Provided no effective dispute resolution
5. Provided no meaningful monitoring or enforcement
6. Were signed by Ukraine under battlefield duress and diplomatic pressure from Europeans (OSCE), in hopes of future negotiations to establish Ukraine's interpretations of Minsk language.

Basically, Minsk II was so poorly written that each side could interpret the language as they chose to, and no authority was established to enforce its provisions.
From 2015 to 2022, while many further meetings were held among the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) and the Normandy Format, nothing was ever accomplished to resolve the various issues created by Minsk II's poorly written terms.

Today, Russian propaganda often blames Ukrainian non-compliance with Minsk II as the reason for Mad-Vlad the Invader's February 2022 "Special Military Operation", but in reality, Vlad never mentioned Minsk related issues in his December 2021 ultimatums to NATO and the USA.
Instead, what mad-Vlad demanded was:

1. NATO withdrawn from Central Europe

2. US nuclear weapons withdrawn from Europe

3. US recognition of Russia's sphere of influence over former Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact countries.

So, Mad-Vlad's 2022 SMO was not about Ukraine, it was about rebuilding the Old Soviet Russian Empire.

[USA-FRANCE]

“AI can never even get to human level intelligence, which requires all of the emotions which humans possess. No AI can ever be human-like. In fact, to get to human level intelligence would require a higher intelligence to create it. And to create intelligence higher than what humans posses, would require that humans understand what a higher intelligence is capable of; iow, not possible at all.”

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Thank you for your long and very interesting answer.
Concerning AI never being able to become intelligent like a human being...
I sincerely hope you’re right!

But within 20 years, with multi-dimensional Quantum Computing being added to AI... anything might become possible... That would make parts of humanity irrelevant... We shall see.

In the mean time, lets make sure the Russian terrorist state’s quest for territorial expansion, together with all its support from radical Islam and communist power-houses (Iran, North Korea, China), ends sooner rather than later.

All the best,