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Elon Musk faces another massive blow as new study confirms his worst fear
The Daily Mail ^ | 30 Apr 2025 | XANTHA LEATHAM and ELLYN LAPOINTE

Posted on 04/30/2025 4:29:16 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican

A phenomenon that Elon Musk has called 'the greatest risk to the future of civilization' just got worse, according to a new study.

Musk - who has 14 children with four women - has for years warned about population collapse caused by baby bust in America and the West.

The consensus was that countries needed a fertility rate of 2.1 children per one woman to continue growing - a concern given that the US's is at 1.62.

But now researchers say that fertility target may be too low.

A new study found populations may need a fertility rate of 2.7 children per woman to avoid long-term extinction.

The team said the original estimate didn't fully account for variables like mortality rates, the male-to-female ratio, the probability that some adults never reproduce, and random fluctuations in family size.

Musk, who boasts of 'always banging the baby drum,' has been sounding the alarm on worldwide population collapse for years, claiming it will be 'the biggest problem the world will face in 20 years.'

The billionaire-turned-politician previously said that low birth rates result in fewer workers, increased debt, strained healthcare and pension systems, and total social unrest.

Diane Cuaresma, one of the study's authors, said: 'Considering stochasticity [unpredictability] in fertility and mortality rates, and sex ratios, a fertility rate higher than the standard replacement level is necessary to ensure sustainability of our population.'

The team concluded that true population sustainability – as well as the sustainability of languages, cultural traditions, and diverse family lineages – requires rethinking conventional fertility targets.

Writing in the journal Plos One the team said: 'The underpopulation crisis has been a serious threat to the sustainability of developed countries.

(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Science; Society
KEYWORDS: 1973; britishtabloid; dailyfaildotcrap; elonmusk; fertility; population
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To: fr_freak

I agree and disagree with the perpetual population growth narrative. Rapid increase and rapid decline each have their problems but a steady population or slightly increasing or decreasing should be just fine.


21 posted on 04/30/2025 4:56:46 PM PDT by posterchild
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To: posterchild
The graphic is interesting but there are not 4 DeathToAmericaWomen available for each and every JihadMan.

That's what the grooming is for.

22 posted on 04/30/2025 4:56:59 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Democrats are the Party of anger, hate and violence.)
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To: fr_freak

It's all about the population pyramid. Too many dependents.

23 posted on 04/30/2025 4:57:21 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

What a truly stupid propaganda piece…


24 posted on 04/30/2025 4:57:51 PM PDT by Wpin ("I Have Sworn Upon the Altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny...")
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To: posterchild

That’s why They Blow Up So Young these days.


25 posted on 04/30/2025 4:58:13 PM PDT by Uncle Miltie (My Bearded Lady neighbor is an "Intimacy Coach" from the shed w/ Palestinian & Gay flags.)
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To: T.B. Yoits

“The U.S. rate has been below replacement rate since 1973.”

The consequences of widespread use of the birth control pill and abortion to prevent children from being born. Add to that doubly economic whammy on the middle class from chronic inflation plus outsourcing of jobs overseas which resulted in both spouses having to work instead of one staying home and caring for children. Then feminist and LGBTQ movements which discouraged females from marrying and forming a traditional nuclear family with children. Finally the decline in adherence to religious teachings encouraging procreation.


26 posted on 04/30/2025 4:59:16 PM PDT by Soul of the South (The past is gone and cannot be changed. Tomorrow can be a better day if we work on it.)
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To: fr_freak

I think that is correct. It is all set up as a pyramid scheme. If we got away from that model, we’d be fine with a much smaller population.

Also, many people think they really need a lot of “stuff”. Of course I would never “take away” anybody’s stuff. If you want it, and can earn it, then have your stuff. But at the same time, I think many people will find more happiness with simpler lives and less excess stuff.

Small town lives, with happy families, and basic hobbies (gardening, fishing, hunting, wood working, crafting, cooking, etc.). It may not be for everyone, but I bet most people would love to get back to that world. But, today, you just can’t — because Pharoah needs you to be a wage slave to pay for the pyramids.


27 posted on 04/30/2025 4:59:27 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy
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To: T.B. Yoits

The U.S. rate has been below replacement rate since 1973.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/figures/mm6901a5-F.gif

Many if not most of our siblings, cousins and friends, decided on 2-3 children as our max # of offspring!


28 posted on 04/30/2025 5:00:41 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (If history teaches us anything: It's that history rarely teaches us anything! (outofsalt))
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To: MinorityRepublican
Why did it improve slightly in the '90s and early '00s?

Bill Clinton? ;~).

29 posted on 04/30/2025 5:03:43 PM PDT by Ditto
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To: daniel1212
"..In the United States around 1800, the average woman had about 7-8 children during her reproductive years.."

I think they got started a lot earlier. Now the more "prolific" races are trending back that way if I'm seeing things correctly.. 🤔

30 posted on 04/30/2025 5:03:46 PM PDT by CopperTop (Outside the wire it's just us chickens. Dig?)
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To: MinorityRepublican

The following YouTube video is quite informative on this issue.

https://youtu.be/F6KptpOuo7E?si=rBTazy96QPYOqxgX


31 posted on 04/30/2025 5:05:04 PM PDT by TheDon (Remember the J6 political prisoners! Remember Ashli Babbitt!)
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To: MinorityRepublican

https://www.statista.com/chart/16058/total-fertility-rate/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate


32 posted on 04/30/2025 5:10:06 PM PDT by Az Joe (uired to.)
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To: Grampa Dave
It's not a coincidence that the frequency of mental disorders surged starting after WW2. Many people have since come to terms with the bitter truth that their parents had no business having children.

A simple study of statistics in human populations shows some truths - the tall are getting taller, the short are getting shorter, and the mentally ill are getting more mentally ill. The prevalence of mind-numbing medications are an indicator, not just of the vast numbers but also that treatments across large groups aren't working.

There's an increasing number people within successive generations in our post-industrial society who are steadfastly determined not to do to their offspring what was done to them, ensuring their success toward that goal by not having children at all.

33 posted on 04/30/2025 5:12:58 PM PDT by T.B. Yoits
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To: daniel1212

Unfortunately most didn’t live to adulthood.

Just visiting the cemetery in my family’s small town in Virginia and you see many tiny graves from the 1700s and 1800s.


34 posted on 04/30/2025 5:14:08 PM PDT by packagingguy
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To: MinorityRepublican

Western Civilization is undergoing collapse. We have a nice ringside seat.


35 posted on 04/30/2025 5:14:21 PM PDT by GingisK
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To: T.B. Yoits

The pill was developed about 1960.

My Commie Sociology professor was on target...


36 posted on 04/30/2025 5:15:09 PM PDT by Does so ("The guilty flee when no man pursueth"....🇺🇦...Dem☭¢rat... ∅ ™ ¿ ¡ ☞≣ ½¼)
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To: MinorityRepublican

The Vatican is dragging us down.

The last person born in Vatican City was Carlo Gaddi, who was born on January 4, 1936.

https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0300520/bio/


37 posted on 04/30/2025 5:16:46 PM PDT by Az Joe (uired to.)
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To: fr_freak

“I actually think that a USA with about 150-200 million people would be nice and relaxing.”
.
‘Puts it at about 1956.


38 posted on 04/30/2025 5:19:39 PM PDT by Does so ("The guilty flee when no man pursueth"....🇺🇦...Dem☭¢rat... ∅ ™ ¿ ¡ ☞≣ ½¼)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

So true and sad…


39 posted on 04/30/2025 5:24:57 PM PDT by Jan_Sobieski (Sanctification)
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To: GingisK
Western Civilization is undergoing collapse. We have a nice ringside seat.

And only one pillar left. And that's America.

40 posted on 04/30/2025 5:25:11 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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