Posted on 03/19/2025 6:46:08 AM PDT by daniel1212
American military strategists are actively gaming U.S. military response scenarios to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2026. The wargames have already found that the U.S. would have to lose more than 900 fighter jets — up to half of its fighter jet fleet — and a large number of U.S. warships to turn back China, a new report revealed Monday. [...]
The basic details of the war game are that China decided to force reunification with Taiwan, [...]
As of Monday, the war gamers had studied the scenario 22 different times. In 18 of the 22 cases, Chinese missiles destroyed “a large part of” the U.S. and Japanese naval fleets and “hundreds of aircraft on the ground,” Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at CSIS, told Bloomberg News [...] in our last game iteration, the United States lost over 900 fighter/attack aircraft in a four-week conflict,” he told Bloomberg News. “That’s about half the Navy and Air Force inventory.”[...]
the scenarios found that the U.S. could still inflict heavy costs on China despite its own devastating losses.
tags added after every paragraph:
:'Hellscape' envisions a battlefield filled with tens of thousands of unmanned ships, aircraft, and submarines all working in tandem to engage thousands of targets across the vast span of the West Pacific. Admiral John Aquilino, former commander of the Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), originally coined the term in August 2023 at the Emerging Technologies for Defense Conference and Exhibition. The concept was brought up again at the Shangri-la Dialogue by current INDOPACOM commander Admiral Samuel Paparo in an interview with Josh Rogin of the Washington Post.
The concept, at its core, leverages the Department of Defense's initiative to rapidly procure and field large amounts of unmanned systems, taking critical lessons from the ongoing War in Ukraine that has revolutionized unmanned warfare. Owing to these lessons, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks announced the Department's Replicator initiative at the same conference in 2023. Since then, the program has been hard at work developing new capabilities.
'Hellscape' and 'Replicator' are closely related to each other and many of the capabilities set to be delivered in the Replicator program will have direct applications to the Hellscape concept envisioned by INDOPACOM. Replicator itself has sought out to deliver the exact capabilities that the Hellscape concept refers to.
INDOPACOM's 'Hellscape' concept will feature unmanned systems in every domain. From High-Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) UAVs like the U.S. Navy's MQ-4C Triton maritime patrol aircraft, down to one-way attack unmanned surface vessels (USVs) like the Muskie M18 developed by MARTAC. In between will be a myriad of different platforms that provide a number of unique capabilities to the overall 'Hellscape' concept.
A major concept being pursued that applies to 'Hellscape' is the U.S. Navy's 'Project Overmatch'; the branch's contribution to the overall Department of Defense Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) effort to mesh information flows into one combined picture. EpiSci was recently awarded a follow-on contract to continue their efforts for this program. Project Overmatch, as a concept, fits directly into the 'Hellscape' concept of a networked force of asymmetric systems that can coalesce to deliver solid punches despite being made up of small components of an overall networked force.
Most prominent are the various procurements of one-way attack drones like the AeroVironment Switchblade 600 or UVison Hero-120. The U.S. Marine Corps are specifically focused on loitering munitions and one-way attack drones and have issued contracts in 2021 and 2024 for integration and procurement of various unmanned systems. This year, UVision announced that the Hero-120 would be produced in the U.S.–likely due to demand for the system.
A mix of these systems, alongside countless other classified capabilities and unmentioned procurement efforts highlight the drive to make 'Hellscape' a reality. The U.S. Marine Corps unveiled a concept last year of Hero-120 loitering munitions installed on a Long-Range Unmanned Surface Vessel (LRUSV), showcasing just what is possible when these systems are integrated together. The LRUSV, based on the U.S. Navy's '40PB' built by Metal Shark, is yet another example of how 'Hellscape' is already becoming a reality.
Here are some additional thoughts and commentary on the 'Hellscape' concept and its implications:
1. Ethical considerations: The development of such a vast network of autonomous weapons systems raises significant ethical questions. How do we ensure proper human oversight and decision-making in a battlefield dominated by AI and unmanned systems?
2. Potential for escalation: The 'Hellscape' concept could lower the threshold for military engagement, as it reduces the risk of human casualties for the deploying side. This might lead to more frequent conflicts or rapid escalation of tensions.
3. Cybersecurity challenges: With such a heavy reliance on networked systems, the potential vulnerabilities to cyberattacks become a critical concern. A successful hack could potentially compromise the entire 'Hellscape' network.
4. Arms race implications: The development of these technologies could spark a new arms race, with other nations rushing to develop similar capabilities or countermeasures.
5. Economic impact: The shift towards unmanned systems could have significant implications for defense industry jobs and military personnel structures.
6. Technological hurdles: While the concept is ambitious, there are still significant technological challenges in coordinating such a vast network of autonomous systems effectively in real-world combat situations.
7. International law considerations: The deployment of autonomous weapons systems on this scale may require updates to international laws and conventions governing warfare. These points highlight the complex and multifaceted nature of the 'Hellscape' concept, extending beyond just military strategy to encompass broader societal, ethical, and geopolitical considerations.
It requires 10-to-1 odds to guarantee a win unless there is a weapons advantage. We have no weapons advantage. They have everything we have.
Thanks fixing my post....Ukraine has proven the combat of utility of unmanned systems at scale.
We need to build a combat architecture which integrated manned and unmanned systems and enables the Services and Allies to operate in the same battlespace.......this requires a significant disruption of current paradigm.
HELLSCAPE will hopefully deter the conflict and will serve as the bridge to the future of warfare.
Sounds like a good argument for Taiwan to have an enormous array of anti-ship missiles in hardened silos, thousands of ship-killer drones, air and drone defenses, etc. It is impossible to believe they do not already. No need for the US to send ships and planes for the Chinese to destroy — or more likely, stiff Taiwan and do nothing.
Taiwan also seems to be in a good position to exploit a MAD nuclear deterrent. If China attacks, it gets 10 or 20 destroyed cities, devastated industry, and 100 million casualties. China responds, it “wins” a wrecked, radioactive island of no value.
There must be some left over woke dudes in our military planning scenario.
When you think about it, it is a dream come true for the MIC to make all these enormous arrays of missiles, thousands of drones, etc.
They WANT the sale, hence the scary stories about China attacking or/and the USA and Tawain losing...
***The US MIC thinks every problem is a nail that requires the hammer of the military to solve it.***
I guess you mean manufacturing companies in America that make stuff the pentagon makes purchasing orders for, but your post isn’t about them at all, it goes into government and political decisions by our elected Congress, Senate, and presidents.
Plus Taiwan will be a rubble zone.
In WWII we had Operation Pluto, which pumped many gallons of petrol across the channel. We won’t have that.
I thing any discussion of stopping China crossing the Taiwan Strait or attacking the West Coast of the US must involve the use of nukes.
As I said in another post, China is in a war with the US, only we don’t recognize that war, fentanyl is supposedly killing over 100,000 Americans a year, the chemicals to make fentanyl come from China, nothing leaves China without the CCP knowing.
China is killing 100,000 Americans yearly without firing a shot, the ROI on that investment is off the charts.
Why engage in a conventional military war when you can defeat your enemy without firing a shot.
What I was pointing is that you started off with something that has nothing to do with those decisions, political decisions by our elected office holders, Congress, the Senate, and the presidents we choose.
I you don’t want to fight a conventional war with China then don’t go to the guys at the plant who make 155 shells, go to the people we elect who decide such things.
Exactly! China wages war against on a completely different metric. The old fashion way is armies, air forces & navies that breaks things leaving the target incapable of generating wealth for the Middle Kingdom. The Middle Kingdom way is hegemony - control. Do this through bribery and social disruption. It’s a replay of how the West treated China for some 400 years. It’s really a form of colonialism and we’re too stupid to realize it.
Does the game take into account the utter corruption of the PLA? Where generalships are bought with cash? With top down command management that does not allow initiative by junior ranks?
Quality of military gear? Chinese jet engines have extremely short service lives.
Even with Pluto we ran short on fuel, as to nukes, I don’t think so.
The ships needed to invade would be rather easy targets and every supply ship even easier.
Large landing ships that they are building seem particularly susceptible to missiles
It likely did not, nor take into account the inability of the US to repair ships (like one or two shipyards for AC's) and dependence upon China for parts.
It’s going to be a come as you are war. Shipbuilding won’t be a factor. China gets ashore on Taiwan quickly or it doesn’t.
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