Posted on 03/10/2025 7:08:14 AM PDT by Miami Rebel
President Donald Trump declined to explicitly rule out a full-blown recession for the U.S. economy this year, telling Maria Bartiromo in a recent "Sunday Morning Futures" exclusive that the country will see a "period of transition" as his policies take effect.
"I hate to predict things like that," he said of a recession. "There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing… it takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us."
The president's comments come amid some business leaders' instability concerns over tariffs imposed on China, Canada and Mexico, as well as growing concerns of a potential economic slowdown.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve has predicted a contraction of -2.8% in the first quarter, Bartiromo pointed out.
Goldman Sachs raised the expectations of a recession within the next 12 months to 20%, while JP Morgan says the probability of a recession stands at 35%.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick offered a more definitive answer when asked about the possibility of a recession on Sunday, telling NBC News' "Meet the Press" he would "never bet on" one.
"There's going to be no recession in America… no chance," he said.
[Check out TSLA, by the way.]
any one who thought there would not be a period of adjustment with all this good change is a fool.
Tough times is the cure. stay in the boat.
Not a recession but to fix our problem created over the past 40 years there will be a small amount of transition pain, it is un-avoidable.
When Reagan started in ‘80, there was a huge mess to clean up.
Very similar to now.
Exactly. Tremendous damage has been done to our country particularly starting with Obozo. The cure needs to be harsh or it will never get fixed. That means, short term pain. Yes, anyone who assumed this would not be the case is a fool. Dems and RINOS will try to use this as a weapon, but we need to stay the course. They have zero. Nada. Nothing... except misery and ultimately the destruction of the USA. They have been stealing for far too long.
The 80s turned out to be a very good time.
Going from government print and spend, to a real production economy is going to be transition.
Yes, it’s better than the ‘transition’ of hyperinflation and collapse of the Republic (Weimar style) that the Democratic Socialists and Socialist Democrats were planning, but it’s still painful.
I’m like most items in the pseudoscience of economics, a recession has a formalized definition (which is often fudged).
It is two consecutive fiscal quarters of zero or negative GDP growth.
GDP has an equation to define it and in that equation is the variable G, government spending. There is also a variable C for consumption and typically consumption dominates the equation. But some odd parameters have found their way into the C variable, not really relevant this moment.
If you cut G, it will definitely have a negative impact on GDP. It’s in the equation, it is explicit, and it is immediate. Ideological philosophers will at some point stomp their feet and yell that reducing government spending is a positive thing for economics because of all of The marvelous magical things that take place from whatever.
The operative word is immediate. If G is reduced GDP is reduced. What magically happens later can be measured later. What happens immediately is ugly.
And a 36 trillion in debt, it’s not going to get any better. And don’t bother in any replies demanding to know what my solution is. There doesn’t have to be a solution. The problem may be so far gone that there’s nothing that can be done.
There. There’s a consideration for people to hate even more than whatever solution I might offer up. If you want to offer one up, don’t do it in English. Do it in math. Know the numbers. Then you will know why there’s no solution.
And we had a severe recession early in Reagan’s first term, as he and Volker stopped Carter’s runaway inflation. But then the economy flourished and Reagan won a historic landslide in 1984.
When Reagan took office in January 1981, rates were touching 20%. 34 years later, rates weren’t even a quarter of that, so I don’t think the situations are parallel.
The only thing that I hope for is that this gets turned around BEFORE the mid-terms. If the economy is tanking in early 2026, Trump’s agenda could be doomed.
But, it will still be easier to take than the last 4 years.
Ambiguity is the only possible response when tariffs “could go up, could go down, could be 10% or 250%....” I just think, I just hope we’re bringing back great wealth...And why Canada and Mexico, by the way ? We are not supposed to question this could be part of a larger harebrained scheme ?
Exactly. Anyone who thinks you can correct over 50 years of wreckless spending without some pain is just plain stupid. I would hope the American citizen is willing to pay the price today so our kids and grandkids can have a better future without the burden of debt.
People hate change, they get all freaked out.
While you are likely correct, that was not what was promised.
The interest rates were driven by Volker and began in the Carter administration. Technically, that’s when the inflation correction began.
Wall Street is basically legalized gambling. It isn’t Main Street
What we had in the four years from January 20, 2021 until January 20k 2025, was not a recession. It was an incipient DEPRESSION, as bad as almost anything from March 30, 1933 to January 20, 1937. The re-election of FDR that year assured the Great Depression would be forever remembered as such, as things got so much worse, with regulations, and onerous taxation being paid by just about EVERYBODY, until the outbreak of WW II in 1941, when the US went on wartime footing and huge deficit spending.
The New Deal was the most restrictive choke ever put on any economy of any country up to that time in history. Up until then, there was always an active black market, and massive smuggling of goods between countries, to offset the effects of excessive regulation and taxation. FDR closed all the loopholes, and continued to tighten the grip even into the Truman Administration.
In 1952, the first glimmers of freedom once again broke through, with the elevation of wartime hero Dwight Eisenhower to the Presidency, and a rollback of much of the New Deal.
Today we have President Donald Trump smashing the icons and shredding the volumes of regulation. Kind of like blowing up a dam.
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