I’m like most items in the pseudoscience of economics, a recession has a formalized definition (which is often fudged).
It is two consecutive fiscal quarters of zero or negative GDP growth.
GDP has an equation to define it and in that equation is the variable G, government spending. There is also a variable C for consumption and typically consumption dominates the equation. But some odd parameters have found their way into the C variable, not really relevant this moment.
If you cut G, it will definitely have a negative impact on GDP. It’s in the equation, it is explicit, and it is immediate. Ideological philosophers will at some point stomp their feet and yell that reducing government spending is a positive thing for economics because of all of The marvelous magical things that take place from whatever.
The operative word is immediate. If G is reduced GDP is reduced. What magically happens later can be measured later. What happens immediately is ugly.
And a 36 trillion in debt, it’s not going to get any better. And don’t bother in any replies demanding to know what my solution is. There doesn’t have to be a solution. The problem may be so far gone that there’s nothing that can be done.
There. There’s a consideration for people to hate even more than whatever solution I might offer up. If you want to offer one up, don’t do it in English. Do it in math. Know the numbers. Then you will know why there’s no solution.
However, the 2 consecutive quarterly declines in real GDP is a simple, neat, and wrong definition.
https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
“The NBER’s definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria — depth, diffusion, and duration — as somewhat interchangeable. That is, while each criterion needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another. For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity, the committee concluded that the subsequent drop in activity had been so great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that, even if it proved to be quite brief, the downturn should be classified as a recession.”
Now, I agree that politics likely enter into the NBER process, ie the Biden years were recession-free…sure Jan, sure.
But 2+*-dGDPq isn’t a hard-coded def.