Posted on 03/06/2025 5:31:13 AM PST by SeekAndFind
It looks like it’s Warren Buffett’s turn to say, “I told you so.”
Late last year, the Berkshire Hathaway CEO was busy selling stocks when the S&P 500 logged more than 50 record closes, leading many market observers to scratch their heads.
Now, the answer looks much clearer.
The stock market’s 2025 slump proves Berkshire’s fourth-quarter trades to be prescient.
Buffett was at odds with the bullish sentiment that marked the end of 2024, according to Berkshire’s latest 13-F filing, which tracks its holdings. In the last three months of 2024, Berkshire sold some $5 billion of Bank of America and $3 billion of Citigroup shares, while also slashing its ownership in smaller names like Brazilian fintech NU Holdings, cable operator Charter Communications, and Sirius XM owner Liberty Formula One.
While Buffett left some of his high-profile holdings—like largest position Apple —untouched, spirits maker Constellation Brands was the only notable purchase in the quarter. Overall, Berkshire was a net seller in 2024. The upshot is that the firm now has more cash on hand than any other U.S. company.
After Berkshire’s 13-F release in mid-February, Barron’s Andrew Bary wrote that “Buffett has been out of step with the markets before, including during the internet bubble of the late 1990s. He was vindicated then and could be rewarded once again.”
It didn’t take long for that to happen: Since the 13-F filing’s Feb. 14 release, the S&P 500 has tumbled some 5%. In fact, the index has given up all the postelection gains it notched in the fourth quarter, and then some. As of the end of Tuesday’s trading, the index’s close was the lowest value since Nov. 4.
(Excerpt) Read more at barrons.com ...
Article goes on to say….
In retrospect, it’s easy to see why Buffett was selling even as the market was making new highs. While some money managers have criticized him for being too conservative in his allocations in recent years, there were plenty of signs in the fourth quarter that market choppiness could be ahead. President Donald Trump made no secret of his plans to use tariffs liberally in his second term. While many market observers were quick to claim he didn’t mean what he said, it turns out…he did.
Just because he is selling doesn’t mean he isn’t also buying.
A real investor looks at six months in the future.
A person that just looks at today is just a gambler....................
I told my financial advisor to keep a portion of my retirement in cash last year for the same reason. I found out one of his people moved it into stocks in early December. As soon as I saw it I read him the riot act and told him to put it back into cash. Lost a few points, but I didn’t care as I knew the market was way overheated.
I’ll wait for another 4-5% drop from the high (currently around 7) before I call him to start moving it back in.
“Late last year, the Berkshire Hathaway CEO was busy selling stocks when the S&P 500 logged more than 50 record closes, leading many market observers to scratch their heads”
Buy low, sell high.
“A real investor looks at six months in the future”
Buffet looks years or decades in the future.
He was a net seller.
That’s why he’s called “The Oracle of Omaha”......................
In late January I moved 4/5 of my 401k out of stocks....just seemed that the market had come so far, very quickly, and there were a lot of storm clouds showing up. My broker manages another fund, never made a peep about any moves...it’s a smaller account but they just never seem to want you to do anything but be in stock, even if they balance it in different markets/industries.
The stock market crashed in 2008-09 and the National Debt was about $9 Trillion at that time.
Since then the National Debt has risen to $36 Trillion.
The stock market for the past 17 years has been propped up by our government printing of $27 Trillion in funny money.
Since Trump promises a’common sense’ government it is logical to conclude the government is going to learn how to live within its means.
What's Barrons angle ? Trying to diss Trump's Econ plans ? Selling when prices are at record highs is good investing, that's why. Things will likely fall back at some point and he'll buy again at a cheaper price.
This is no mystery and no story to be uncovered.
As for markets this vulture, with no scruples or soul, has access to information few can get since they are not on the inside like this hypocrite is, which makes him look like a genius to some I guess.
I believe he also has been selling some of his Apple holdings according to previous articles.
There was an article about a week ago that stated they were investing in a few Japanese companies. Not sure what specific Japanese companies.
The main reason when asked WHY Berkshire Hathaway has not been making purchases is that they did not see anything of value. Meaning they think that the stock market is overpriced and due for a correction. I happen to agree with BH view in general. Although, I did recently buy NVIDA and Pallentir based on their recent pullbacks.
However, I have been 95% TBills since last July making between 4.3-5.3%. Which is a lot better than losing 20% of my stock value. The majority of these TBills are now in revolving 4 week auctions.
I still own two losers at this point. They are both almost 5 year old bad buys. One is the Matthews China fund. The other is a Solar ETF. Both are 33-55% of the price I paid for them. The China fund is up about 40% from its low last year.
We have a saying in our business:
You can’t go broke taking a profit
It’s ashame that Buffett hasn’t done well over the years. /sarc.
Speaking of a deadly national debt of 37T...congress has rediscovered RESCISSION which will allow them to claw back billions of committed dollars which judges can’t stop.
Trump tried it in ‘18 but fell 1 vote short in the senate. Numbers are more favorable now.
It’s bringing budget hawks back onto the Trump team like Paul, Roy, Massie who have been squawking about still too much spending. Having the Rs totally united could mean lots of good things down the road.
I am not a big fan of the “financial advisor” industry—high fees for low value added.
I live cheaply—and I am my own financial advisor.
It means doing some research and paying some attention—but every dollar saved in not paying financial advisor fees is working for me.
If you want to kick the financial advisor habit this is a great discussion group that can answer every question you might have:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewforum.php?f=1&sid=a49b817be7b30c6d891f40aae018f18e
Financial advisor fees and their effects:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/How_much_do_you_lose_to_annual_fees_after_many_years%3F
“””congress has rediscovered RESCISSION”””
Yes, it sounds good that Congress has discovered rescission.
But, I remain skeptic that Congress will actually do anything. MAGA has been stabbed in the back by Congress too many times for us to trust them.
I am reminded how the Senate Republicans tried to enact Lankford’s new Immigration Law and the failure of that law resulted in Trump being harrassed by the Democrats during the campaign.
When the only thing needed to deal with the immigration problem was, as Trump said on Tuesday, “All we really needed was a new President!!!!”
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.