Posted on 03/04/2025 4:18:14 AM PST by MtnClimber
For many of us who walk the deep weeds of honest economic analysis, this is the moment we have been waiting for.
Second only to the elimination of the U.S-Marshal Plan, which is scheduled to end April 2, 2025, the structural implementation of North American tariffs against Mexico and Canada provides the most significant opportunity for GDP expansion, jobs, wage increases and massive economic gains in the United States.
Simultaneous to the tariffs scheduled to go into effect tomorrow, President Trump notes U.S. food prices are positioned for major supply-demand changes that will benefit all American consumers. What President Trump notes in the Truth Social message below, is a reality we experienced in 2018/2019 as the result of national agriculture supply.
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told CNBC on Monday that the inflationary impact from any tariffs would be “second-order small, so I don’t see the president wavering on any of this, because he knows in order to get to a world in which America is strong and prosperous, with real wages going up and (more) factory jobs. This is the path that he’s chosen.” (more)
CTH outlined the prediction for ’18/’19 back in 2016 when we discussed what happens when the American food supply equation is modified to focus on domestic production to the benefit of domestic consumers. The food supply chain will shift, slowly at first and then ultimately by around Thanksgiving of this year (fall harvest) we will see major price drops in the American food basket.
There are going to be major opposition forces, notably related to decades of Big Ag exfiltration, screaming that U.S. consumers will see higher prices. However, as previously experienced/outlined these claims are entirely false. We will see major drops in food prices as a result of a more balanced U.S production-import/export dynamic.
Think in terms of the COVID-19 disruption we experienced in the food supply chain. Major shortfalls in consumer products were noted because the supply chain for agriculture could not respond quickly enough to the shutting down of 50% of the food/caloric delivery system (food away from home).
In the food production system we are about to experience, a reversal of product availability is to be anticipated; there will be abundance.
In the short term, there will be some supply chain disruption as the import equation (total cost of goods) changes to reflect the tariff impact. However, long term, we will see (example citrus) farm products returning to FL/CA farm production from Mexico.
Generally speaking about 50% of the USA bulk food system is ‘one full harvest’ ahead of demand. Grain silos, frozen product and processed food stuffs are generally a full harvest ahead. Ex. the Frozen turkey you purchase in November is a product outcome of a production process that takes place all year. Canned foods, dried foods, spices and other derivatives follow the same supply chain background. The length of this process is approximately 6 months....SNIP
I expect the MSM to go berserk for a while.
Get rid of the ethanol mandate and Conservation Reserve Program (paying farmers to keep land fallow) and food prices will drop further.
Mexico is still getting parts from China and that’s a violation of the US/Mexico trade deal.
Immediately allow grazing on the CRP lands.
That’s doable with the stroke of a pen.
Good
Eliminate BLM (the land one).
| Exports | Imports to the USA | |
| USA-Mexico | 13.1% of all American exports head to Mexico that is 42% of Mexico's imports | 15.2% of all USA imports come from Mexico. That is 76% of all Mexican exports |
| USA-Canada | 14.5% of all American exports head to Canada. That accounts for 51% of Canadian imports | 13.6% of all USA imports come from Canada, that accounts for 71.4% of Canadian exports |
The “uncategorized” is suspect. It must be boimass for Ethanol since there is isn’t even a category for this in the chart. Why not? Are they afraid to publish the truth I wonder?
Just wait. Tomorrow some grocery store will price some apples 5 cents higher than a week ago.
Here comes the media with stories about negative tariff impacts to the average shopper.
There are several farmers who make YouTube videos and in order to generate view count of course they must make it interesting.
I recommend folks go over there and have a look at some of them, because at some point or another each of those farmers presents the finances and economics of their farm. Lowering prices of food is not something that’s going to improve their situation.
Bill Gates has bought up a lot of farmland but farming is not the path to billionaire status. When people step up and offer up solutions for the price of food in the United States, they never addressed the fact that their plan would wipe out the farms and then you get no food at all, at any price.
Question: Is Trump using tariffs as a tool for negotiating a better deal with Canada and Mexico or are they an end in themselves?
Trump’s stated goal is he is using tariffs as a negotiating tool to end drug and illegal alien trafficking. Will have to wait and see if it morphs.
Hopefully, end in themselves.
Fixed it.
I don’t drink tequila and loath Canadian whiskey. My maple syrup comes from Minnesota and I can do without guacamole. I might miss the fresh lime in my gimlet , but I’m certain there are sources of limes from places other than Mexico. I also expect these tariffs will be short lived as both the Canadians and Mexicans realize that Trump is serious and isn’t like Biden or the squishy diplomats.
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