Posted on 03/03/2025 11:13:39 AM PST by Miami Rebel
Food prices have been on an increasingly upward trend for the past several years thanks to COVID-19 and inflation. And while U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico were on hold, President Donald Trump has now announced that they will go into effect on March 4, "as scheduled." The president made this announcement in a post on the social media platform Truth Social.
Those 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico were on hold after the two countries reached an agreement with the United States, but now that they're back on, your grocery budget is likely to be affected—after all, those countries are the top two suppliers of food and beverages to the United States. With more food price hikes possibly on the horizon, here’s what to know—and what to consider stocking up on.
How Will Tariffs Work?
Under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, fresh vegetables traded within the North American market move widely tariff-free—a mutually beneficial system that saw a rise in the import volume of foods such as bell peppers, cucumbers, squash and snap beans.2 When tariffs do go into effect, shoppers can expect to see prices change fairly quickly.
In the aftermath of tariffs becoming official, there may also be some supply chain disruptions. Though demand for groceries will stay the same, supply may decrease, since importers of record are responsible for paying the newly imposed fees.
This scenario is more likely to occur among smaller importers, while larger corporations will almost certainly pay the fees. Smaller importers will have to pay the fees on any goods they do decide to bring in, but they may scale back their imports to avoid the added cost. Don’t expect companies large or small to absorb the losses—at least not fully—instead, they’ll increase the prices of goods, which means consumers will ultimately pay the price at checkout.
What Foods Will Go Up in Price?
In the weeks after tariffs against Canada go into effect, shoppers can expect to see a rise in prices of foods with high U.S. import volumes, including beef and seafood, cereals, legumes and maple products.
As for the effect of tariffs on Mexico, Americans will most certainly see increases in the price of a long list of fruits and vegetables, including avocados, tomatoes, peppers, berries, cucumbers and greens, as well as for sugar, orange juice products and some cuts of meat.
Should I Start Stocking Up?
Though some folks may already be headed to stores to stock up, it’s important to reflect on COVID-era experiences before stockpiling foods that may ultimately go to waste—like those 50-pound bags of flour. Tariffs or not, buying foods that you regularly consume in bulk is a smart cost-saving plan when done correctly.
What Foods to Buy and How to Store Them
Meat and Seafood
More than half of the fresh red meat imported to the U.S. comes from Canada, according to the Department of Agriculture. Canada is also a significant supplier of poultry and prepared meats, which includes processed meats like smoked sausage and cured ham. Plus, Canada is the largest exporter of seafood to the U.S., particularly when it comes to shellfish.
If you choose to stock up on your favorite cuts, store meat and seafood products in airtight food-storage bags in the back of the freezer for three to six months. You may be able to store even longer if you pick up some vacuum-sealed products—and certain cuts of meat last longer in the freezer than others. This guide to freezing chicken can help you out, and we wouldn’t recommend freezing whole cuts of beef for more than 12 months. And by the way, the USDA says you can safely freeze ground beef indefinitely, if you like—just know the quality may diminish after the six-month mark.
Nuts
Vietnam is actually the largest exporter of nuts to the U.S., but with Mexico at No. 2, price hikes aren’t out of the question. Plus, Mexico is actually the top exporter of ground nuts to the U.S., which could be tough news for fans of some gluten-free flour replacements. You can store nuts in unopened product bags or in airtight freezer bags in the freezer for up to a year.
Canned Legumes
As of 2022, the U.S. ranked No. 1 as an importer of legumes, and Guatemala, Mexico, Peru and Canada are the country’s largest suppliers, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity.
Keep canned legumes, like beans and lentils, in a cool, dry place such as the pantry for up to two to five years. Note that although canned foods typically last even longer, taste and texture can be affected after a few years.
Fruits and Vegetables
Though Canada takes the top spot in the meat department, Mexico has long been a major supplier of fruit imported to the U.S. The country is far and away the largest exporter of fruit to the States, and in 2023, Americans imported more than $11 billion of fruit from Mexico. Peru, the second largest exporter, clocked in at just $2 billion.
And both Canada and Mexico play a large role in the veggie selection in the United States. With a combined $14 billion in vegetables exported in 2023, they are the top two exporters of vegetables to the U.S.—and that includes some frozen or preserved veggies.
Frozen fruits and vegetables are the best bet for buying in bulk, as they are flash-frozen to maximize freshness and preserve nutrients. Store them in the original packaging and reseal them after each use or transfer them into freezer food-storage bags with clearly marked expiration dates. Though we have guides on how to freeze some produce—like corn, celery and potatoes—keep in mind that some produce does not store well in the freezer, including most vegetables that you would use for salads.
Don’t forget Crown Royal
We are going into spring and summer. Tomatoes from the south are incredibly tasty, avocados from California are delicious, I’m sure we can get lots of beef from Texas, seafood from Alaska, lobster from Maine, nuts from almost every state,
Buy a couple of tomato plants and find out what they taste like right off the vine. Go back to eating fruits and veggies when in season, it gives you something to look forward to.
Start drinking Again?
If you say so.
I’ve been thinking about telling my boss, Vandelay Industries, to consider cutting back on the importing and just focus on the exporting.
Better stock up on Canadian horse meat.
Most often served in burgers in Canada.
Mexico has long been a major supplier of fruit imported to the U.S.
= = =
Well now I am confused.
I thought that US fruit depended on those Mexicans coming to the US to pick it. And we needed a lot of them for a whole bunch of US fruit.
Do they need to go back to help that major supplier? or?
Sorry - that is completely ridiculous.
Most Americans will search for, and switch to, less expensive substitutes.
Within a few months, exporters with tariffs will be compelled to reduce prices, because USA shoppers will no longer purchase their products.
This isn’t true, is it?
“More than half of the fresh red meat imported to the U.S. comes from Canada, according to the Department of Agriculture. Canada is also a significant supplier of poultry and prepared meats, which includes processed meats like smoked sausage and cured ham. Plus, Canada is the largest exporter of seafood to the U.S., particularly when it comes to shellfish.”
Canada provides most of the fresh red meat Americans eat? That doesn’t sound right.
I prefer a peach, or grapes or berries...and all those wonderful tastes.
I live in Texas. We get our beef local, straight from the rancher.
We get a lot of our veggies local as well. Heck I’ve got a bunch of tomatoes seedlings planted. Texas grows a lot of things so. Don’t know how prices will be changing.
My question is the feed for the cattle up on Canada, where do they get it? Here we use a lot of coastal hay. So I’m curious.
You don’t look at the labels in your grocery store? A ton of vegetables come from Mexico.
(I grow a lot form my tower gardens, but I doubt that that’s a practical solution for 95% of American consumers.)
The US produces about 11 million metric tons of tomatoes. We import just under 2 million from Mexico.
What will you substitute for tomatoes?
Glad my neighbor has a hot house in his back yard vegetables year around and cheap too.
I heard USAID is giving billions to the Human Fund.
You can have my ration. I'll be sweating my Modelo.
"imported to the U.S." are the key words. Most fresh meat is home-gown.
26% of the lean ground meats are imported. I don’t know the overall number but it seems about 25% total is imported. I live in PA and most beef is from central and eastern PA. I only see imported beef when it’s expensive lean cuts like filet.
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