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Dunning-Kruger Effect: Ignorance and Overconfidence Affect Intuitive Thinking, New Study Says
The Debrief ^ | April 13, 2021 | Tim McMillan

Posted on 02/28/2025 11:00:04 AM PST by Red Badger

In a newly published study, researchers say the Dunning-Kruger Effect can cause low-performers to overestimate their judgments during the intuitive decision-making process.

According to the study published in the journal Frontiers in Psychology on April 8, 2021, researchers found that persons with the highest number of errors demonstrated the highest degree of miscalibration, or overconfidence, in their actual performance on the cognitive reflection test.

Researchers say study results have potential implications for the theoretical cognitive bias that persons with low abilities tend to overestimate their actual capabilities, also known as the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Speaking with The Debrief, Dr. Justin Couchman, professor of psychology at Albright College and co-author of the recent study, says the ability to make correct intuitive decisions is increasingly becoming one of the most critical skills to have in the modern information-technology age.

“In our current world, this is arguably the most important skill that exists,” said Dr. Couchman. “We are swimming in a sea of misleading headlines, fake news, filtered pictures on social media, distorted context, and commentators who project a false sense of authority and trust. Almost all of which has the explicit goal of tricking our intuition. It is very hard to not feel the intuitive or natural reaction to anything you see in media, but if you can recognize the process and spot the trick, you are much more likely to avoid being swept up in something false.”

The Dunning-Kruger effect at work, where self-image and reality collide. (Image Source: The Business Times/ Illustration by Kenneth Lim) BACKGROUND: WHAT IS THE DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT Most everyone can recall a time when they’ve encountered someone unabashedly declaring they are correct and everyone else’s contradictory opinion is uninformed and simply wrong. At times it may seem evident that this person doesn’t know what they are talking about, however, they appear to be blissfully unaware of their ignorance.

In psychology, this phenomenon is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, aptly named after the two research social psychologists, Dr. David Dunning and Dr. Justin Kruger, who first described it in their paper published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology in 1999.

In their paper, Dunning and Kruger suggested that persons who are unskilled or lack metacognitive competence suffer from a dual burden, which causes them to be unaware that they hold erroneous overly favorable views of their abilities. “Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it,” noted researchers.

To put it bluntly, the Dunning-Kruger effect says that due to cognitive bias, incompetent people are too inept to realize they are incompetent, which causes them to defend incorrect opinions or beliefs.

It’s important to note the Dunning-Kruger effect has often been misinterpreted or misrepresented in non-academic settings, such as in the media.

Results of Dunning and Kruger’s research did not show that incompetent people think they’re better than competent people. Rather, it showed that bias causes incompetent people to believe they are more capable than they actually are.

In a blog post, University of Texas research professor of psychology Tal Yarkoni cautions that misinterpretations of the Dunning-Kruger effect can cause another cognitive bias – confirmation bias.

“Next time you’re inclined to chalk your obnoxious co-worker’s delusions of grandeur down to the Dunning-Kruger effect, consider the possibility that your co-worker’s simply a jerk–no meta-cognitive incompetence necessary,” Yarkoni writes.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; History; Military/Veterans; Society
KEYWORDS: ignorance; zelensky

1 posted on 02/28/2025 11:00:04 AM PST by Red Badger
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To: Red Badger

I thought this was an article about Zelensky, but I guess not.


2 posted on 02/28/2025 11:01:53 AM PST by ClearCase_guy
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To: ClearCase_guy

It could be.....................


3 posted on 02/28/2025 11:02:54 AM PST by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: Red Badger
IIRC it was named (by Dunning and Kruger) in 1999. But the concept has been around forever by other names and phrases.

A similar effect is the old adage, "The biggest mouths are attached to the smallest brains."

4 posted on 02/28/2025 11:03:49 AM PST by RoosterRedux ("There's nothing so inert as a closed mind" )
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To: Red Badger

The Dunning-Kruger effect is on display almost every day...100% of congrseeional democRATs and 75% of congressional Republicans (RINOs).


5 posted on 02/28/2025 11:04:07 AM PST by MtnClimber (For photos of scenery, wildlife and climbing, click on my screen name for my FR home page.)
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To: Red Badger

AOC thinks Musk is over on the left side of that curve.


6 posted on 02/28/2025 11:04:45 AM PST by Steely Tom ([Voter Fraud] == [Civil War])
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To: Red Badger

Hey, I just became an Art Critic this morning and I LIKE that drawering!


7 posted on 02/28/2025 11:05:47 AM PST by Nervous Tick (Hope, as a righteous product of properly aligned Faith, IS in fact a strategy.)
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To: Red Badger

“Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall.”
Proverbs 16:18

Once again, the Bible proves to be a “how to” manual for living as a human being on earth.


8 posted on 02/28/2025 11:06:41 AM PST by PGR88
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To: Red Badger

and I’m guessing these people are also subject to the Peter Principle...


9 posted on 02/28/2025 11:08:37 AM PST by stylin19a ( If you think it's hard to meet new people, try picking up the wrong golf ball)
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To: Red Badger; SaveFerris; gundog
Kruger?


10 posted on 02/28/2025 11:14:46 AM PST by Larry Lucido (Donate! Don't just post clickbait!)
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To: Red Badger

I so often say (from experience) - the person who worried me the most in business was the one who had insufficient experience to be in the leadership role they filled. They had balls. But not the experience. I always found that combination reckless and therefore “dangerous”.


11 posted on 02/28/2025 11:24:33 AM PST by llevrok (Keep buggering on!)
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To: llevrok

But what if I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night?


12 posted on 02/28/2025 11:43:24 AM PST by HombreSecreto (The life of a repo man is always intense)
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To: Red Badger

Thomas Edison would be proof. And that would be wrong.


13 posted on 02/28/2025 3:24:33 PM PST by If You Want It Fixed - Fix It
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To: Red Badger

Bkmk


14 posted on 02/28/2025 3:54:19 PM PST by sauropod (Make sure Satan has to climb over a lot of Scripture to get to you. John MacArthur Ne supra crepidam)
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