Posted on 11/01/2024 4:56:45 PM PDT by traderrob6
Donald Trump has lost close to 10 points on the Polymarket betting site in less than 24 hours.
(Excerpt) Read more at polymarket.com ...
Im sure they give odds. The bookies make money on the vig. Not who wins.
“WTF gives?”
simple financial manipulation by astroturfers ...
political betting markets are parimutuel type betting, that is, all bettors bet against each other, not the house, and the odds constantly fluctuate based on the amount of money one side or the other is willing to pour in ...
despite all the recent nonsense about the prescience of political betting markets, political betting has NEVER been an accurate predictor of election outcome ... all they do is indicate how much astroturfing each side is willing to engage in ...
really, political betting markets are little different than online opinion polls where whomever wants to can opine, except that with betting markets one has to pay actual money to opine ...
i actually made a fortune betting on Trump in 2016 because astroturfers drove the odds for hillary winning through roof, FAR higher than the probabilities indicated by actual polls ...
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
It’s 59 to 40 four days out.
Was never gonna stay at 65 to 35.
People start betting to see if they can make a buck..they’ll lose :) but that’s how people are...more to be made betting harris
even with that, it’s 20 point difference. well 19
When is post time?
Re Pennsylvania: My family lives in Democrat Allegheny County, PA. Mom’s application for mail ballot went out late, but they say they received it on Wed. 30 Oct... Late Friday night, they sent an email to her saying they’re “preparing” her ballot for mailing, & if she doesn’t get it in seven days, contact them... She is registered GOP...
And most of these election "articles" are little more than click bait. Then they get regurgitated here.
“The 10 electoral votes of Wisconsin would give Trump 269 or a tie in the Electoral College; add in the six electoral votes of Nevada and Trump wins at 275”
No. The 10 electoral votes of Wisconsin would put Trump over the top at 272 even without Nevada.
In a 48 hour period, Polymarket bettors reversed both states.
Kamala now has a gambler odds lead in Wisconsin and Michigan.
Trump still leads in Pennsylvania, but his large lead is now dramatically smaller.
The only issue that makes sense to me is the completely valid concern about Democratic Party voter fraud in those three swing states.
I think that is unlikely.
Almost $3 billion wagered on the Polymarket Presidential Election.
In other words - it takes a $30 million bet to move Polymarket 1%.
The cheat is on like Donkey Kong
Polymarket is strictly international and non-US “ investors”. There are ways US citizens can bet (also only crypto), but out of not legal to do so.
Damned typos…. It is illegal for the US citizens to bet politics on Polymarket
That would have been my guess - more evidence of the steal underway is beginning to surface.
We are entering the red zone and batters are getting nervous. They are simply hedging their beds. A week out two weeks out it’s easy to throw your money down on a horse. Not so easy five minutes before a race. Happens every day in the stock market. Start market zooms all day long and then a half an hour before the closing bell the market starts to tighten up. Trump +6 all day long.
“Markets are not totally rational.”
There was a story yesterday about someone — Soros, I think — hiring people to manipulate Polymarket.
Can’t let this mind game detract people enough to change their votes.
Baris isn’t as flawless as he’s often made out to be. I don’t know why is held in such high esteem.
At this point ads are worthless and seriously doubt there is anyone who will be swayed by anything.
What matters now is voting turnout and fraud
Books just want even action. So they move a line to bring in more bets one way or the other.
Robinhood trading platform is the only place I’ve seen
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