In Deciding Whether to Retaliate, Iran Faces a Dilemma | If Iran strikes back at Israel, it risks further escalation at a time when its economy is struggling and its military is vulnerable. If it doesn’t, it risks looking weak.

The New York Times ^ | Oct. 26, 2024 Updated 7:54 a.m. ET | Steven Erlanger

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Iran faces a dilemma after the Israeli strikes on Saturday.

If it retaliates, it risks further escalation at a time when its economy is struggling, its allies are faltering, its military vulnerability is clear and its leadership succession is in play.

If it does not, it risks looking weak to those same allies, as well as to more aggressive and powerful voices at home.

Iran is already in the middle of a regional war. Since the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has moved swiftly to damage the militant group in Gaza and other Iranian proxies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis and its allies in Syria and Iraq.

These groups represent Iran’s “forward defense” against Israel, the heart of the nation’s deterrence. They have been badly weakened by the Israeli military’s tough response since Oct. 7, which weakens Iran, too, and makes it more vulnerable.

Iranian officials have made it clear that they do not want a direct war with Israel. They want to preserve their allies, the so-called ring of fire around Israel.

After Israel struck Iran, Tehran on Saturday publicly played down the effect of the attack and showed ordinary programming on television. It did not immediately vow a major retaliation, but simply restated its right to do so.

Adding to its reticence, Iran faces enormous economic problems, making it wary of an extended and costly war with Israel. It has been heavily penalized by the United States and Europe over its nuclear program, forcing it to move ever closer to Russia and China.

[ridesthemiles]

DECISIONS DECISIONS

[CptnObvious]

NYT hasn’t a clue. Iran’s leaders do not think that way, it is a religious state. So the NYT should start with that premise, but does not. I wonder why?

[Paal Gulli]

It’s a fiendishly clever tactic because the Iranians have both the response of their own people and their hegemony among the Shiite nations to worry about.

If Iran doesn’t counter-attack, they risk losing their status as leader among the Shiites for not going the extra yard to exterminate the “Jewish vermin.” But if they DO counter-attack, so will Israel, and it’s a certainty that Israel will make much public fanfare of the fact that the people of Iran are being made to suffer because their leadership left them (the Israelis) no choice.

“Peace will come when the Arabs will love their children more than they hate us.”
― Golda Meir