Posted on 10/24/2024 5:44:38 AM PDT by oldskoolwargamer2
Trump leading by three nationally, has led nationally in last four polls in RCP average. I am cautiously optimistic.
Trump +3 popular means you can also add. NH, NM, ME at large and NE2
Call the campaigns and ask for an address to mail a check
I’d be happy with him just duplicating the current RCP “No Tossups” map. That would be 312-226. After those closest possibilities are VA (Harris +6.4), New Mexico (Harris +7.7), NH (Harris +7.8). These all seem like a reach but who knows?
Great link.
The Young Turks are going to be wild post Election Night.
The expletives will be flying around the room.
If President Trump somehow wins Virginia it will be an early night—but agreed the odds are against it.
My number crunching is that one hundred thousand hard core Democrats in northern VA would have to stay home—and of course assumes that all the cheating is stopped cold.
Those ridiculous IPSOS and Morning Consult polls throw everything off.
While Turks can be effing lunatics full of BS, but I am surprised sometimes how they actually give honest, thoughtful observations based reality on occasion.
Eric Hovde is in a very good position to possibly win in Wisconsin. He’s worth dropping a few bucks for.
BTTT
Kamala down to +0.2 in the RCP national avg, and that’s only because they are keeping a 2-week old CBS poll in the average. If they removed that, Trump would be +0.1, and Dems’ breakout would go to next level
Meant to say “Dems’ FREAKOUT” not “breakout”
I really want to be optimistic but the 2022 “Red Wave” burned me bad!
I wouldn’t read too much into such polls. The polls lied in 2020 when Trump was no doubt ahead and they claimed he wasn’t and look how 2020 turned out.
This is typical. The polls two months out are push polls. Published to make the race look close. After all, IF it was over in August/September then there would be no reason to pay attention.
Or click on the site. Once you get within two weeks of the election the polls tighten up to predict the REAL outcome as best as they can. That way they can get someone to BUY their polls again in four years because WE were the closest to the actual out come.
The biggest issue in this race is the lack of enthusiasm for Kamala. It effects turnout. We are going to turnout for Trump. Only liberal women are going to turn out for Kamala. Even then she will not get the turnout of Biden, Hillary or Obama.
Assuming their cat doesn't have a UTI.
Agree with all of that. Additionally, and as you suggest, they have to correct their inaccurate polls now so that after the election they can then speciously proclaim that their 2024 polling was among the most accurate! Never mind all the bogus, bias, deliberately over sampled Dem polling they pushed out right up until they were forced to be honest.
I’ve also donated to Moreno (Ohio) and Hovde (Wisconsin).
But the media was telling Biden he was doing a heck of a job, so he figured Why not run again?
Definitely agree!
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