Posted on 10/22/2024 10:57:39 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
“Keep calm and throw it in the average” is the best way for a voracious consumer of polling data to stay sane this election season. The ups and downs that can come from seeing your preferred candidate pingpong back and forth, from day to day, become less stressful when placed into context — even when this presidential election is remarkable for just how little bouncing there has been in the polls on average.
To put this year’s post-Labor Day race into some historical polling context, I looked at how much one frequently cited polling average, that of RealClearPolitics, has moved going back through the 2008 election. (I’m relying on the RealClearPolitics average for this exercise, despite the excellent polling average published by The Times, because it’s the only one I found that goes back for that many presidential cycles. It’s worth noting that, as I write this, both averages show the head-to-head race as Harris 49 percent, Trump 48 percent.)
In 2008, shortly after Labor Day, John McCain actually held close to a three-point lead in national polls, but by Election Day, things had swung heavily toward Barack Obama, with the RealClearPolitics average showing Obama leading by around seven points — a 10-point range of results over the course of about two months. In both 2012 and 2016 you can see the average shift by a few points during the final two months. In 2012, it goes from a substantial lead for the Democratic candidate, Mr. Obama, to a near tie with his opponent, Mitt Romney. In 2020, a race in which Joe Biden consistently led in the national polls, the polling...
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Alcohol in liberal dosage.
Vodka Xanax on the rocks? I think it’s Kamala’s favorite cocktail.
Pray for communism with corrupt government as god?
I sometimes relax with a little extra range time. ;-)
Stay close to Christ.
Although liberals and leftists don’t want to hear that so the suggestion of booze or drugs might be their only option.
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
🚨 JUST IN: The left-wing newspaper “Los Angeles Times” has decided NOT TO ENDORSE Kamala Harris for president.
The Times has endorsed *every* Democratic presidential candidate since 2008.
How do they do telephone polls when most people only have cell phones with no entry in the phone book or county Board of elections?
Wow!
That is a big f'n deal as FJB would say.
War-dialing every possible phone number in an area code, starting with (XXX) 000-0000 and ending with (XXX) 999-9999.
Burbon
McCain was never close.
He pretty much gave up end of August and took the cash and limped for the hills.
Don’t kid yourself. If you’ve EVER given your phone number out to anyone, or answered a telemarketer by accident, you are on the lists.
I guess I'm thinking that they would get the voter rolls (public info) and see who voted in say the last 3-4 Presidential elections (likely voter) and screen by party affiliation to make up their percentages of expected turnout and then match to a phone number to that name.
A bubble-headed listcicle of past elections? From one of the simplest minds at the NYeT ? It doesn’t even rise to the level of a FReeptard vanity…
wHaTeVeR.
Election night I’m planning to self medicate with cheddar popcorn and Wild Turkey 101. 😉
FBI quietly revises crime statistics and reveals rise in violent crime [From -2.1 to +4.5 in 2022]
Washington Examiner ^ | 16 October 2024 | Brady Knox
Posted on 10/22/2024, 11:03:56 AM by Spktyr
The FBI quietly revised the U.S. crime statistics to show an increase in violent crime.
An investigation by RealClearInvestigations found that the FBI updated its 2022 crime statistics in September, showing that rather than a 2.1% drop in violent crime as originally reported, the United States actually experienced a 4.5% rise in violent crime. The new dataset showed thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.
The more than 6 percentage point change is unprecedented in recent FBI statistic reporting, William & Mary professor Carl Moody told the outlet.
“I have checked the data on total violent crime from 2004 to 2022,” he said. “There were no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there were small changes of less than one percentage point. The huge changes in 2021 and 2022, especially without an explanation, make it difficult to trust the FBI data.”
The only announcement of the change was a single footnote in the 2023 crime statistic report, where the agency acknowledged, “The 2022 violent crime rate has been updated for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.”
The NY Slime’s knows that the Democrats are loosing. They have reverted to the “new age” idea of “visualize world peace and victory.” If you visualize winning the Presidency, your Karma will affect how people vote..............not really.
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