Trump Blames Immigrant Surge for Housing Crisis. Most Economists Disagree.

The New York Times ^ | Oct. 11, 2024, 12:01 p.m. ET | Jeanna Smialek, Lydia DePillis and Natasha Rodriguez

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Former President Donald J. Trump and his running mate, Senator JD Vance, regularly blame America’s housing affordability crisis on a recent surge in immigration. They point to their plans for mass deportations of undocumented workers as part of the solution.

But most economists do not believe that immigrants have been a major driver of the recent run-up in housing prices. Rents and home costs started to surge in 2020 and 2021, before the flow of newcomers began to pick up in 2022 and 2023.

And while immigrants could have kept housing demand elevated in some markets, past studies suggests that they are a small part of the overall story. Even the economist whose paper Mr. Vance had cited as evidence said in an interview that she thought that immigration’s recent impact on housing costs had been minuscule.

In fact, a number of economists and housing industry experts said that one of the solutions Mr. Trump was proposing — large-scale deportations — could actually backfire and make the housing crisis worse.

That’s because immigrants do not simply add to the demand for housing: They are an important part of the work force that supplies it. Foreign-born workers make up a quarter of the construction labor force, and they are especially concentrated in trades like plastering, hanging drywall and roofing.

Across many booming housing markets, particularly in the South, the recent flow of migrants has helped residential builders meet demand for both skilled trades and relatively unskilled laborers, industry groups say and job market data suggest.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

TRANSLATION: War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.

[Skwor]

Same NYT “most economists” were heard saying it was “unexpected” to see housing prices increase under Biden.

Experts, what would we do without them.

[antceecee]

More gas-lighting from the narcissists at the New York Slimes

[LegendHasIt]

I weep for the death of logic.

[butterdezillion]

Exactly.

We don’t have the problem of needing more housing than already exists unless we have more people than we’ve been able to house in the past.

Plus, adding more houses when interest rates are this high and the economy is this bad doesn’t fix the problem. New housing is going to be expensive too.

[Engraved-on-His-hands]

...before the flow of newcomers began to pick up in 2022 and 2023

Wait. I thought that immigration was down to nothing after the wonder workings of Biden and Harris. Did the New York Times accidentally tell the truth?

[ClearCase_guy]

My opinion: Bring in 10 million additional people who need housing. Your “demand” has skyrocketed.
Meanwhile, the “supply” of housing has not magically gone up by 10 million units.
So you have a “shortage”.
This is how “supply and demand works”.

Economists: No. That’s not true. Because Trump is Hitler.

[FoxInSocks]

That’s because immigrants do not simply add to the demand for housing: They are an important part of the work force that supplies it. Foreign-born workers make up a quarter of the construction labor force, and they are especially concentrated in trades like plastering, hanging drywall and roofing.

So I’m supposed to believe that 10 or 20 million illegal aliens came over the border practically empty-handed, and then they all built their own houses?

You don’t need to be an economist to understand supply and demand. All these people are going to live under one roof or another; supply is notoriously down — thanks to regulations, inflation, etc., etc. It’s common sense.

And Kamala says she’s going to have 3 million homes built, and give those buyers $25,000.

[McGavin999]

Horse picky. The feds are giving money to the non profits and they are filling up houses with migrants. Remember after Covid when a bunch of investment companies were buying up houses like crazy? They were doing it in anticipation of this very thing.

If those houses weren’t being off the market they would be available for purchase. They think we are stupid.

[PeterPrinciple]

Former President Donald J. Trump and his running mate, Senator JD Vance, regularly blame America’s housing affordability crisis on a recent surge in immigration. They point to their plans for mass deportations of undocumented workers as part of the solution.

---

This is what the media hears, what has Trump actually said?

[jmcenanly]

When your stable of economists includes such luminaries as Paul Krugman and Robert Reich, you are going to see things like this. I wouldn’t trust them to tell me the time.

[Nachoman]

That’s because immigrants do not simply add to the demand for housing:

What do migrants do, roost in the trees?

[9YearLurker]

Most economists are ungrounded imbeciles.

[Phoenix8]

Right because having 10 million immigrant families move in the same time while 3 million homes were built means we have MORE available houses.

[PGR88]

“economists” in NY Times jargon = ivory-tower political whores.

[econjack]

Exactly! I’m a Ph.D. economist with almost 40 years of university teaching experience, including private and Big Ten universities, and never ONCE has the NYT asked me anything. So, let’s see the “list” of these “most economists” they keep talking about. Then let’s follow up and see if they were actually contacted for their opinion.

[House Atreides]

Jeez…. Who are we to believe. The Agendanista New York Tines? Or the Law of Supply and Demand?

[Cincinnatus.45-70]

Where do these experts think the more than 5 million invaders brought in by Biden are living? Spare tack rooms in the Unicorn stables? In the housing for Santa’s elves, since it’s off ssason?

[TalBlack]

Is ANY profession as often “surprised” as economists? These political jack wagons do nothing but screw up.

[TalBlack]

Lol! This is right up there with “You can’t drill your way out of an oil shortage.”