538 has Dems ahead in 4 swing states. Republicans ahead in 7

538 ^ | 10-09 | 538

[dennisw]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

538 is a very well known site. Is run by a fairly honest Democrat. His "super" poll combines the results of 7-10 polls

[nathanbedford]

Of course, Trump could compensate for the loss of North Carolina with Pennsylvania and the addition of Nevada's six votes but that is a difficult proposition given the Democrats' chokehold on the unions in all important Las Vegas.

Yes, a few of the better more reliable pollsters have infrequently spotted Trump ahead in Nevada but it continues to be an uphill struggle.

In any event, the loss of North Carolina forces difficult compensation in Nevada or in the rust belt.

[boycott]

WTF is a “fairly honest Democrat” ? --- A knucklehead? He called himself a knucklehead. I guess he thought that was better than calling himself a liar.

[Dan in Wichita]

Dershowitz officially left the Democrat party within the last 1-2 months. He finally had enough.

[SharpRightTurn]

I appreciate your musings and I agree with them. The Repukes need to find a way to amp up a get out the vote effort in western NC in light of the devastation there.

[SharpRightTurn]

Tampon Tim is both a liar and a knucklehead. And who did he steal that American flag lapel pin from?

[tflabo]

Careful though, never ever underestimate the amount of leftist hacks and morons who vote plus the cheating.

[avital2]

i consider Doug Schoen and Mark Penn and Julian Epstein Honest Democrats.

[avital2]

Lara and Whatley know the NC scene - commented on Board of Elex actions yesterday - and have one lawsuit pending. the problem w/loosening/broadening regs to help flood victms is that that also makes cheating easier. this duo is proactive - happy they have now installed Harmeet Dhillon to handle AZ thanks to RNC.

[nathanbedford]

Doug Schoen and Mark Penn I would agree but Epstein seems to be a very recent convert indeed.

[nathanbedford]

I agree that Trump and Watley probably know quite a bit about their native state but I am concerned about the polls.

Consider the latest from Real Clear that shows Trump up 1/2 a point on average and, most unsettling, it shows Atlas Intel, a really accurate and respected polster, with Harris up 4!

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_harris_vs_kennedy_vs_west_vs_stein-8541.html

[eastexsteve]

Everyone is concentrated on the polls, but the polls won’t matter. Who gets to control the election and count the votes is what matters. And, the democrats already have that ace in their pockets. The never-Trumpers helped assure this. If you want a reason to finally put your foot down and pick up something that goes “boom”, then go ahead and watch the polls. But, you had a reason to do this four years ago and you didn’t do it.

[avital2]

i think it takes a lot of guts for Schoen Penn and Epstein to stand up against the Dem Machine. they aren’t conservatives but more of the now-disappearing true liberal school. the rest of ‘em aren’t libs, but Lefties.

[nathanbedford]

It is easy, on the other hand, for Republicans to go apostate and "stand up against the Dem Machine" perhaps because turncoat Republicans can do their mischief behind a protective media shield.

It is both the weakness and the strength of the Republican party that it has no equivalent power to the "Dem Machine."

[mosaicwolf]

"In every town you’ll see maybe 2 or 3 Democrat yard signs while Trump has impromptu, grassroots PARADES."

It doesn't matter. Who counts the votes matters. 2024 will be a repeat of 2020. They have to keep the polls close so it doesn't look like a steal.

[dennisw]

Real clear polling........ I will take a look.

[bgill]

Anyone voting for Harris/Walz should get a free one way ticket to China.

[OrioleFan]

The only ads Sherrod Brown is running in Ohio are abortion ads attacking Moreno.