Posted on 10/09/2024 4:15:02 AM PDT by dennisw
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
538 is a very well known site. Is run by a fairly honest Democrat. His "super" poll combines the results of 7-10 polls
Not a chance. Everyone hates democrats.
In every town you’ll see maybe 2 or 3 Democrat yard signs while Trump has impromptu, grassroots PARADES.
Look at merch sales too. No one votes Democrat... ever.
I mean yeah, a few here and there but not enough to even turn an actual blue state.
WTF is a “fairly honest Democrat” ?
“Is run by a fairly honest Democrat.”
There is no such thing.
What is “fairly honest” mean? They only lie if they think you won’t mind?
Someone who is mostly honest, except for when it truly matters?
Dershowitz has been a fairly honest Democrat when the Constitution is involved. But I’m thinking he has officially become a not-Democrat. Not positive about that.
Dershowitz has democrat party lines he will not cross. He may warn democrats from time to time but even does not cross them.
Sort of like a fairly pregnant woman.
There are 7 Swing states and this guy is a bullshit artist .
Are you being sarcastic?
Combining a lot of polls doesn’t impress me, any more than the wagering “polls”.
How in the world is a Democrat up 3 in OH? I realize is Sherrod Brown and he’s been there forever, but this clown needs to go!
“He may warn democrats from time to time but even does not cross them.”
Dershowitz renounced the democrat party last month, became an Independent.
Put this guy's wet dream aside and consider the following:
As at today, October 9, Trump is clearly favored to win this election because he has the edge in the seven battleground states.
Trump is clearly ahead in Pennsylvania and by many pollsters ahead in Michigan, a minority of pollsters also put him ahead in Wisconsin. Thus, the statement, "Trump is clearly favored to win."
But let's analyze the map with North Carolina slipping into the blue column. North Carolina's 16 electoral college votes means that even if Trump wins Pennsylvania he must take another one of the remaining two Rust Belt states. Now Trump is burdened to win two out of three in the Rust Belt and thus the odds shift somewhat in favor of Harris.
Why might North Carolina slip into the blue column? Because the Trump voters in the western part of the states face a very serious problem as isolated mountain- bound victims of the floods struggling to sustain themselves with water, food and a roof over their heads, much less occupied to deliver their votes for Trump. Asheville, located in the same area affected by the same floods, would likely deliver their votes to Harris and, according to David Axelrod, are more likely as sophisticated citydwellers to find a way to register their votes even in the flood conditions.
Additionally, the Republican candidate for governor in North Carolina is the subject of a scandal. His polling numbers are abysmal and he might therefore drag down the ticket, although this factor is probably remote.
At this stage it is not clear what provisions are being made to facilitate Western North Carolina voters exercising their franchise. Apparently the legislature in North Carolina has undertaken some measures but these are presently unclear and perhaps liable to exploitation by the left. Time will probably make clear which side these provisions advantage and which side will shown itself nimble enough to play effectively.
In any event, it is incumbent upon the Trump campaign to adopt measures that Democrats have traditionally shown themselves far more effective in deploying, boots on the ground making personal contact to get out the vote. This will not be easy in the very difficult terrain of flood devastated Western North Carolina.
Given the likely projections on the electoral map, nothing seems to be more important right now than to shore up North Carolina for Trump.
538 is a democrat pundit who pretends he’s an analysis using math
Many of the polls he includes I would not give the time of day to
Not buying this polling. That nitwit kamala is not ahead in Ohio.
There is no honest democrat either. To be one you have to lie.
No, I’m not being sarcastic.
Without cheating the democrats wouldn’t have won anything since Kennedy.
Or just plain crime. They’re is no excuse at all for any of these democrats to ever win a “popular” vote.
Yes, there are leftist losers and psychopaths - no doubt - but the number of us is simply over whelming
D+3 in Ohio?!?
Garbage. Trump will take Ohio by likely 5-8 on the low end
Only polls I would give time of day to would be
Emerson, Atalanta, Trafalgar, Rasmussen. Maybe the NT times sienna, and that other last one is iffy at best. They did a good job in 22 but were off by I believe more than twice the margin of error in 2020, so I am very dubious of them.
There may be another here or there I might consider after looking at their historical performance but 538 includes a lot of damn useless noise in their averages.
Real clear polling for a much better job ignoring the crap
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