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Are You Better Off Now Than You Were Four Years Ago? Compare today's economy to 2020, from gas prices to employment.
Kiplinger ^
| 09/26/2024
| Simon Constable
Posted on 09/28/2024 8:30:22 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
“Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” So asked the 1980 presidential candidate, Ronald Reagan, channeling one of the main reasons we vote for one candidate over another: the economy.
That seemingly glib line helped propel him into the White House for the first of two terms. “It seemed to resonate with voters,” says Pete Earle, a senior research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research. “Many people vote on the basis of kitchen table issues and how far their dollars go.”
The last few years have been tumultuous for the economy. The pandemic lockdowns and the surge in inflation rattled people. On Wall Street, the stock market and the bond market collapsed to eye-watering depths in 2022, and back in the last quarter of 2020, we were still grappling with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Will this generation of voters solely look to their pocketbooks? It’s hard to tell, says Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth. People sometimes look only at what’s hurting them, not what helped them. For instance, some people may remember the surge in food prices but forget that wages have partially caught up. “The average person may say they are worse off because they can’t afford bacon,” he says. “They also seem to remember inflation going up, not when it comes down.”
Of course, every voter is different. Young voters may tend to focus more on the cost of paying off their student loans or buying their first home. As people approach retirement, they have different priorities, different concerns and different buying patterns.
Are you better off now? By the numbers
With that in mind, we’ve built a table of key economic and social indicators. The details include where the metric — such as the value of the S&P 500 — was in November 2020, and where it was recently.
We’ve marked each indicator as “better,” “worse” or “about the same.” We consider the overall rate of inflation, 21% over the period, as worse. But, generally, if a price goes up less than the overall inflation rate, then we count that as better. If, however, a price rises at a rate greater than inflation, it’s counted as worse. Conversely, if an asset value or income exceeds inflation, we count that as better.
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Indicator | November 2020 | July 2024 | Difference | Better? Worse? About the same? | Notes and comments |
---|
Consumer Price Index for Americans 62 and older (R-CPI-E) | 283.922 | 343.324 | Indicates inflation of 21% over the period, virtually the same as the overall CPI. | Worse | Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. In November 2020, the year-over-year inflation rate was 1.2%. In July of this year, it was 2.9% |
Median personal income after inflation | $35,860 | $49,001 | On average, workers saw a 37% increase in pay. | Better | Row 1 - Cell 5 |
S&P 500 | 3310 | 5522 | The index gained 67%, excluding dividends. | Better | Row 2 - Cell 5 |
Average monthly Social Security check | $1,458 | $1,918 | That's a 32% increase, beating inflation by 10 points. | Better | Benefits rose 8.7% in 2023, the largest yearly increase in decades. |
Median monthly traditional Medicare Part B premium | $144.60 | $ 174.70 | Up 21%, in line with inflation | About the same | Row 4 - Cell 5 |
COVID deaths (monthly) | 53,248 | 2,207 | A decline of more than 95.9% | Better | Deaths peaked in January 2021, at 98,174 |
Typical cost of a pair of hearing aids | $2,600 - $4,000 | $2,000 - $3,600 | Price cuts from 10% to 23% or more. | Better | Congress passed a law in 2017 allowing aids to be sold without prescriptions, taking effect in 2022. Less technologically sophisticated aids are available today for as low as $100 a pair. |
Average cost of a new car | $ 39,295 | $48,401 | That's an increase of 23%, two points more than inflation | Worse | Car manufacturing was disrupted somewhat during the pandemic as some components couldn't be delivered. |
Nursing home costs per month | $8,821 | $10,025 | That's an increase of 15% over the last four years, less than the inflation rate. | Better | Costs remain high, with the average private nursing home costing $10,025 a month and public nursing homes costing $8,929. |
Average existing home prices | $311,000 | $427,000 | That's a 37% increase in value. | Better | Better for older homeowners who are selling than for younger ones who are buying. |
Case-Shiller housing price index | 232 | 325 | That's a 40% increase | Better | Better for older owners than younger buyers. |
Cost of borrowing: 30-year fixed rate mortgages | 2.78% | 6.73% | That's more than double the home loan interest rate. | Worse | The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight inflation. |
Cost of borrowing: Credit cards | 14.65% | 23.17% | That's a 48% increase in credit card interest | Worse | The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight inflation. |
Average price of a gallon of regular gasoline | $2.12 | $3.52 | A whopping 66% increase, three times the 21% increase in the CPI. | Worse | While prices were low in 2020 due to the decline in demand during the pandemic, price rises were likely tempered partly by increased oil production. U.S. crude oil output rose to 13.3 million barrels/day in July 2024, up from 10.5 million in early November 2020. |
Food and beverage inflation CPI for seniors | 274.893 | 335.191 | That's a 22% increase, one point above the overall Senior CPI | Worse | Economists say much of food inflation likely results from rising fuel costs after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. |
U.S. life expectancy | 78.93 | 79.25 | A modest increase, less than 1% | About the same | The figures are based on life expectancy at birth. |
Cost of monthly electricity bill | $117 | $147 | A 26% increase, well in excess of the overall inflation rate. | Worse | Electric cars, crypto mining and AI chips require more electricity. The price of coal, which is commonly used for electricity generation, is also higher. |
Number of job openings | 6.9 million | 8.2 million | That's a hefty increase in job openings | Better | Row 17 - Cell 5 |
Unemployment rate | 6.7% | 4.3% | That's a significant improvement | Better | Row 18 - Cell 5 |
Table Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Y-Charts; USA Facts; Social Security Administration; Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services; Audiology Island; Hearing Tracker; Senior Living; Consumer Affairs; Mortgage Bankers Association; Trading Economics; Wallet Hub; Cox Automotive; S&P Global; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Macrotrends; Smart Asset; Save on Energy; Our World in Data.
TOPICS: Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: inflation; prosperity
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2
posted on
09/28/2024 8:37:41 PM PDT
by
TornadoAlley3
( I'm Proud To Be An Okie From Muskogee)
To: SeekAndFind
That’s some pretty impressive contortionism from Kiplinger. I hope they didn’t pull a hamstring.
3
posted on
09/28/2024 8:39:15 PM PDT
by
Frank Drebin
(And don't ever let me catch you guys in America!)
To: SeekAndFind
You would have to be high to think that employment is better now.
To: SeekAndFind
Ridiculously stupid question. EVERYONE is worse off. Well except for the top 1%.
To: SeekAndFind
Ridiculously stupid question. EVERYONE is worse off. Well except for the top 1%.
To: SeekAndFind
Every year I’m better off then the year before. The kids all have good paying jobs and the grandkids are all healthy with a bright future.
7
posted on
09/28/2024 9:17:30 PM PDT
by
Armscor38
To: SeekAndFind
Compared to 2020 . . .
Electricity is up 90 percent.
Gasoline is up 75 percent.
Food is up 43 percent.
Health / Medical insurance is up 48 percent.
Storage rent is up 85 percent.
8
posted on
09/28/2024 9:26:07 PM PDT
by
linMcHlp
To: SeekAndFind
CORRECTION, here, Electricity is up 59 percent.
9
posted on
09/28/2024 9:27:42 PM PDT
by
linMcHlp
To: SeekAndFind
10
posted on
09/28/2024 9:57:42 PM PDT
by
RasterMaster
("Towering genius disdains a beaten path." - Abraham Lincoln)
To: Armscor38
Well, bully for you. Guess you’ll be voting for Skamala so your good fortune continues. The rest of us probably feel quite differently.
To: SeekAndFind
They are comparing inflation with inflation. So if inflation in an individual sector is less than the overall inflation rate, that is rated as “better”.
It’s not better, it’s less worse.
In related news, the chocolate ration has been increased from 30 to 20 grams per week. Big Brother be praised!
12
posted on
09/28/2024 11:00:45 PM PDT
by
Fresh Wind
(Kamala's New Way Forward = Chairman Mao's Great Leap Forward)
To: SeekAndFind
It is beyond me why some people would actually
pay to get information from this place in a newsletter, especially since a lot of the data used were sought out, relentlessly chased, caught and tortured to reveal a conclusion that largely disagrees with what I see on the ground (my wallet) in my own experience.
I don't care about treasured 'indices' and excuses. Show me the lower grocery bills, utility bills, gasoline and insurance, and tax bills. They aren't there.
13
posted on
09/28/2024 11:06:24 PM PDT
by
Gaffer
To: Prince of Space; Armscor38
I can see where some may have it better off if they look at their own particular situation where they and their children are having good fortune right now. But I’d disagree with the grand children’s ‘bright futures’ part. Not with the damage that’s been done to this country by Democrats.
14
posted on
09/28/2024 11:11:08 PM PDT
by
Gaffer
To: SeekAndFind
No, and anyone who says so is lying.
15
posted on
09/29/2024 12:19:11 AM PDT
by
metmom
(He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon.” Amen. Come, Lord Jesus”)
To: Prince of Space
“Well, bully for you. Guess you’ll be voting for Skamala so your good fortune continues. The rest of us probably feel quite differently.”
The question was directed at each one of us and I answered. Other then the drunks, I don’t know anyone in my small community who is worse of now then 4 years ago
To: Gaffer
My fortune keeps improving year by year. I’m certainly a heck of a lot better off then I was 30 years ago.As for the kids, they all own their own homes and have secure jobs so they’ll never be out of work.
To: SeekAndFind
Patently dishonest gymnastics.
To: Armscor38
You may be better off because you made wise choices and got an education as have your children but you cannot tell me that overall prices and costs of living today here in 2024 are better than they were before Biden took over ~ 4 years ago.
[I fully own my home, too. Paid cash for it. That still doesn’t mean all the costs associated with it aren’t significantly more]
19
posted on
09/29/2024 5:41:44 AM PDT
by
Gaffer
To: SeekAndFind
Compare it to 2018 when pres Trump was serving and prices were fairly low.
20
posted on
09/29/2024 6:07:42 AM PDT
by
Bob434
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