Posted on 09/01/2024 9:07:12 AM PDT by hardspunned
The assassination of Austro-Hungarian Archduke Franz Ferdinand by Bosnian Serb Gavrilo Princip in late June 1914 had one of the strongest ripple effects in modern history, setting off a series of war declarations across Europe and plunging the world into one of its deadliest conflicts.
World War I, however, didn’t officially begin until a month after Ferdinand’s assassination, and though tensions were high, the fight wasn’t inevitable, according to Ronald Spector, professor of history and international affairs.
George Washington Today sat down with Dr. Spector to discuss the assassination, the path to war and the new Europe it created.
Q: What was the mood in Europe in the summer of 1914, right around the time of the assassination? A: At the time, things actually seemed to be getting better. The Moroccan Crisis had been settled, the French and Germans had concluded an agreement about the Rhine River, and at the time of the assassination the German Navy was hosting the British Navy at Kiel Week, which is a huge bash with yacht and boat races. Of course, there were certain structural causes present, including the rise of nationalism in the Balkans, the alliance systems and the long-term arms race in naval and land weapons. But these things were in the background. It didn’t seem, in the summer of 1914, that there was much worry about a global war. The French and British newspapers, even for several weeks after the assassination, referred to it as “the Balkan crisis.” They didn’t think this would be a worldwide conflict.
(Excerpt) Read more at gwtoday.gwu.edu ...
Also amusing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4WwNcqrUNI
What would've followed was a nationalistic German leader who wouldn't have been so stridently anti-semitic, and could've been persuaded to become an ally of the French, British, and Polish against the Soviet onslaught.
There was already a plot by certain Generals to overthrow Hitler in 1938, but after the Munich Agreement it was called off.
He just resumes the older theories of the outbreak of that conflict. When in doubt, blame the Kraut, as a certain number of Britons say.
But Hastings is far more of a storyteller than a serious historian, and, as I said, history is written by the victors.
That is true as well.
A tyrant who survives 42 assassination attempts must have a guardian demon, yes, I am going to assume metaphysical forces at work behind the scenes.
God, why hast Thou not interceded?
De facto, it was, since every German state had its own „state song“, some of them still extant. The Wiki article on it is okay
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heil_dir_im_Siegerkranz
Yet under Nazi Germany, these words came to express German superiority and domination of other countries. That was how two Europeans I knew thought of it due to living through Nazi occupation. That acquired meaning makes the traditional first stanza of the "Deutschlandlied" forbidden in polite society in Germany and throughout Europe today.
That gets me to a funny story. As a student at Tulane University in 1970s, I went with a date to see "Casablanca" at a movie house in the French Quarter. You will recall the scene where Major Strasser and a table of fellow German officers in Rick's begins to sing the "Deutschlandlied."
In response, Resistance hero Victor Lazlo (Paul Henreid) starts up the band and sets the crowd signing "La Marseillaise," drowning out and humiliating the Germans. As this was happening on screen, a few seats from me and my date a small, thin elderly man in a beret stood up and joined in with a clear and rousing voice and finished by shouting "Vive La France!"
Better question to ask, is WW III Avoidable? Looks like with Democrats in charge we will be at war with The new Axis of evil by Christmas. The Big war will Change everything! rationing, the Draft, new taxes, Jobs, crack down on liberties, Propaganda everywhere. All in uniform, Flags all over. Like the overnight rise of Antisemitism, This will be as quick as Biden stepping down.
Ah, yes, you are of course correct that under the Nazis, the interpretation of the words was changed 😀
Sadly, this tainted a beautiful patriotic song, and the melody from JosephHaydn‘s „Emperor“ quartet as well.
Yes, the anthems of nations. It’s often fascinating how they change.
But in that film (I have never seen it, but I‘ve heard of this scene) the Germans sang the „Wacht am Rhein“, a quite anti French song from 1840, when President Thiers threatened to attack the German Rhineland.
Originally, they were supposed to sing the Horst Wessel song, but the filmmakers decided against it, since they would have had to pay royalties for including it. So they used a song which was in the public domain.
Btw, I personally never liked the Marseillaise particularly, although it is an utterly grandiose work of music.
To me the anti German undertones are too strong, and the first time I stood up for it was in November 2015, when it was played in Paris in remembrance of the Bataclan massacre victims.
May they all rest in peace🙏🏻
P.S. it seems to me that the March of the Volunteers, the Chinese national anthem, was somehow modeled on the Marseillaise, or am I mistaken?
Stupid question.
Yeah ya got me on the typo. LOL
But at least someone else knows who Zelazny was. I really liked his Amber series...
I think the chances of a new world war are actually receding. China’s leadership is realizing that their military buildup is less than it seems due to corruption, military inexperience, and China’s constrained geography, while Russia is exhausted and lacks the military power to finish off Ukraine. If Trump gets back in, then both China and Russia will confront an American president who knows how to both make deals and stick it to adversaries. Given the choice of a carrot or a stick, most everyone choses the carrot because an imperfect peace is better than a good war.
And, yes, you are correct in that the The Internationale was based on La Marseillaise, so the song of the French Revolution resonates in the March of the Volunteers, just as the French Revolution itself helped inspire Marx, Lenin, and Soviet and Chinese Communism.
Perhaps there is a principle of revolutions and music at work, with bad revolutions producing stirring music and good ones like the American Revolution offering more pedestrian tunes and lyrics.
In the larger view of things, we may have cause to be grateful that our anthem is based on a slap dash poem inspired by an enemy bombardment long after our Revolution and set to the tune of a drinking song. And France has suffered because her anthem is based on the doggerel song of hired killers brought to Paris from Marseilles to kill off the domestic opponents of her Revolution.
No wonder that President Mitterand, nominally a Leftist, downplayed the Revolution's bloodier aspects when France celebrated its bicentennial. Mitterand was a scoundrel in many ways but he did not want to inspire anyone to try to again upend the country that he ruled over. Some experiences are best had only once -- if at all.
PING
Hmm, I like the Star-Spangled Banner, but I was surprised to hear that it was not until 1931 that it officially became the American national anthem.
But mostly, I like the anthems of India, Bangladesh, Iceland and Hungary, as well as Switzerland, because of their spirituality.
And what a pity it is, that Finland does not have the Finlandia hymni as its official national anthem. What a gorgeous tune - but it is performed there before every concert or recital with classical music 🙂
The ill-fated African state of Biafra used the same melody for its anthem, with an English text, which I also like. „Land of the rising Sun“ was ist title.
My appreciation of music is limited to things I know and like, from classical to Motown. On principle, I like the US national anthem but I recognize its defects as a tune and equivocal lyrics.
I do not see any parallels between Europe in 1914 and Ukraine/Russia today.
Let me repeat - “no parallels”
Why?
Great War:
1. A system of mutual defense alliances: Austro-Hungary + German Empire + Ottoman Empire + Kingdom of Bulgaria + (initially) Kingdom of Italy v/s Tsardom of all Russia’s + Republic of France + the United kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland/British Empire etc.
Currently: There is the defense alliance of NATO, but Muscowy has no such defense alliance or indeed allies beyond vassal states of Syria, and Iran.
2. Nationalist jingoism: we all-good, enemy all-bad
WWI: this was wide-spread
Currently: Muscowy has this projected by the government and the 50+ believe it, the younger ones don’t, I don’t see this anywhere else - not even in Ukraine.
3. Darwinistic concepts of nationalism:
WWI: survival of the fittest “race” believed by most
Curr: Muscowy promotes it, the 50+ believe it, the younger don’t. Other countries don’t have this - neo-Darwinism died with 1945.
4. An Arms race:
WWI: heavily a factor
Curr: this is not even a contest as the USA is literally decades ahead. Countries compete in niches
as to the “100% correct” - I don’t subscribe to that in the current war. And more importantly we need to separate “Russia” from “Putin”
There are some interesting books to read - neither of which is particularly non-partisan, so don’t take them as the complete truth, but the two books below will give you additional perspectives:
1. The Russian origins of the First world war - by Sean mcMeekin. I would be sceptical about this if NOT for the author who is quite a Russophile and has written a lot about Russian history
2. The Berlin-Bagdad express —> about the alliance between the German empire and the Ottoman empire AND the inferiority complex of Wilhelm II
The Germans and English saw that Russia had been expanding at the rate of 200 sq miles a year for the 19th century and were terrified. Also Russia was rapidly industrialising.
HOWEVER the fact is that Russia was industrializing from a very low base, so would take a long time to catch up if left alone. AND Germany was industrializing far more rapidly.
Wilhelm II imho should take the blame for WWI happening when it did. He was a petty man with serious inferiority complexes
There was no need for Germany to expand its navy beyond Wilhelm trying to show up his first cousin, the king-Emperor George V. If he just focused on his land forces, that would be enough to defend against France and Russia.
He also foolishly let the treaty with Moscow fade - there was NO need for aggression with Moscow - the Russians found easier “prey” to the south and east (against the Khanates and the ming empire)
He should have also stopped his Germanization in Polish lands, that led to more anti-Berlin sentiment
If he had any sense he should have collaborated with Austria-Hungary and Russia to create a buffer state Poland. That would defuse the Polish sentiment in the 3 countries and at the same time ensure that the Germanic and East Slavic peoples were separated by a state that disliked both.
I do not see any possibility of a “world war” - even if all of European NATO countries enter a war with Russia, I do not see China or India entering this war as it gains them NOTHING to intervene, but EVERYTHING to see Russia weakened and selling them cheaper oil.
Iran’s gov may want to take on Israel, but they know that they can’t without support from Turkey and Egypt and Saudia - and that’s not going to happen.
China wants Taiwan, but not that badly.
India distrusts China so any PRC move against RoC would be looked at askance.
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