Posted on 09/01/2024 9:07:12 AM PDT by hardspunned
The assassination of Austro-Hungarian Archduke Franz Ferdinand by Bosnian Serb Gavrilo Princip in late June 1914 had one of the strongest ripple effects in modern history, setting off a series of war declarations across Europe and plunging the world into one of its deadliest conflicts.
World War I, however, didn’t officially begin until a month after Ferdinand’s assassination, and though tensions were high, the fight wasn’t inevitable, according to Ronald Spector, professor of history and international affairs.
George Washington Today sat down with Dr. Spector to discuss the assassination, the path to war and the new Europe it created.
Q: What was the mood in Europe in the summer of 1914, right around the time of the assassination? A: At the time, things actually seemed to be getting better. The Moroccan Crisis had been settled, the French and Germans had concluded an agreement about the Rhine River, and at the time of the assassination the German Navy was hosting the British Navy at Kiel Week, which is a huge bash with yacht and boat races. Of course, there were certain structural causes present, including the rise of nationalism in the Balkans, the alliance systems and the long-term arms race in naval and land weapons. But these things were in the background. It didn’t seem, in the summer of 1914, that there was much worry about a global war. The French and British newspapers, even for several weeks after the assassination, referred to it as “the Balkan crisis.” They didn’t think this would be a worldwide conflict.
(Excerpt) Read more at gwtoday.gwu.edu ...
Prior to WWI and WWII, the U.S. was overwhelmingly isolationist. The only reason we got involved in WWI was the German telegram intercept to Mexico to attack the U.S. giving Mexico the territory seceded after the Mexican-American war.
The Zimmerman Note was an excuse, TPTB wanted us in that war from the beginning, and finally figured out how to use propaganda to get the rest of the country onboard.
What’s really screwed up is that the Europeans had observers in the US Civil War where it devolved to trench warfare and machine guns had showed up to start industrialized killing - Gatlings - yet they didn’t see that ever happening in their wars. The Spanish learned from this, having been on the receiving end of it again in the Spanish American War and that was one reason they stayed out of WW1 - but none of the other powers did. They weren’t even smart enough to figure out the first order effects - and that there wasn’t going to be any Short, Victorious War at the current tech level.
We did allow the Germans to come trade if they could get here, though.
And how would their ships avoid the Brit blockade?
More like *relatively* peaceful. There were still small wars during this period, as was normal for Europe.
Ironically today marks the 85th anniversary of Germany invading Poland to kick off WWII.
Eh... Germany gets the proximate direct cause by propping up Austro-Hungary with the Blank Check promise - but it is true that even with that promise, the hugely entangled web of treaties and intrigue would likely have set something off anyway.
Would Germany have done worse? The Treaty of Versailles, harsh and unfair, set the stage for German misery and Hitler's rise.
Kaiser Wilhelm gave the ‘blank check’ assuming Russia wouldn’t fight. That was his biggest mistake, and his biggest contribution to the catastrophe that was WWI. And when he finally got around to reading Serbia’s response to the Austria-Hungarian ultimatum, he thought it was satisfactory and a “victory” for A-H, without the necessity to go to war. But by then, it was too late.
Sorry, just sleepless…but as has been said before, on 25th of July Serbia acceded with a conciliatory answer to Austrian demands from the 23rd. Strangely, in Vienna it was not telegraphed to Berlin, but sent by mail. When Wilhelm II read it on the 28th, he cabled to Vienna: „Thus, every reason to go to war has been nullified“.
But it was too late.
In 1812, a similar thing had occurred: on June 16th, Lord Castlereagh, the British foreign secretary, announced to the American emissary, Jonathan Russell, that the British government would stop the forceful recruitment of American sailors for the Royal Navy. Russell‘s letters to DC reached the American government weeks later, when hostilities had already begun.
Tragic indeed.
Why didn’t you say you link was ancient history about the Soviet Union?
If the Germans had beaten ze French at the Frontiers and won the war in 1914, the world would be a much safer place.
“The Zimmerman Note was an excuse, TPTB wanted us in that war from the beginning”
True—but the dumb Germans handed them the perfect excuse they needed.
This whole period was one blunder after another...
What an absolutely vapid question.
Read Sir Max Hastings history of that, Catastrophe 1914, and you will see what happened and why.
His mistake to not make the promise conditional or to exercise oversight over the Austro-Hungarians in part by cautioning them to not provoke anything. Additionally, not doing his due diligence on just what he was writing a blank check to.
Some amusing short videos on just this matter:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obzqMCu8vGs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HE1fDlWBp0
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