Posted on 08/14/2024 6:38:34 PM PDT by ransomnote
Mercouris ntoes the most interesting point in the last 24 hrs: The Russians seem to be on the point of an attack on Pokrovsk in Donbas. Ukrainian resistance to defend this town is crumbling.Ukrainian offensive in Kursk:
The Russian authorities are saying that the objective of the Ukrainians was the capture of the Kursk nuclear power plant. The western media is avoiding the topic and the Ukrainians have not said so, but have hinted.
The only purpose of committing 6 Ukrainian brigades to Kursk would be to capture the nuclear plant.The Chechen commander Apti Aladeenov (Akmut Special Forces) has published a long piece on his Telegram channel. The following are notes on his telegram piece which he says are the result of 'very interesting' information he received (detailed plans etc.) According to that information the Ukrainians have suffered severe losses:
"Well what can I say, to Zel who's overdue?" On the 11th of August they should have taken the plant. Today is the 14th. Your 11,600 or 11,900 men, and the number of tanks tanks involved did not fulfil the task. All your resources remaining are on the move into the furnace, from which they will not come out. This 'blitzkreig' of Zelensky's as planned to seize the power plant and use it as an ultimatum that we should leave somewhere and do something has failed. Next we will systematically destroy every Ukrainian (Mercouris notes Aladeenov uses a stronger word here) who got into our territory. We already got our teeth in and are unlikely to ever let go.... (END OF THIS ALDEENOV portion of the video)
Official Statement from Russian internal security- they have increased nuclear power plant security in response to the Ukrainian attacks.
There's a cascade of releases from the Ukrainian side. Syrskyi claims the Ukrainians have captured 74 settlements. The Russians say Ukrainians have reached 28 settlements. Mercouris says the Ukraine's Syrskyi does what the Ukrainians regularly do, take the Russian numbers and double them.Russians say Ukrainians are present in a region of 450 square kilometers, Ukrainian Syrskyi doubles that number to 1000 sk Kilometers. The conflict is partly an information war - the Ukrainians are better at the information war than are the Russians. The Ukrainians photograph or film as they go and store the images until there's a need to portray advances, winning etc. but the images may be days old. Mercouris notes this is just a normal part of war. Not everything is information war, but it's a habit of the Ukrainians.
There's footage of Ukrainians pulling down a flag on a school in Sudzha; the Ukrainians claim to have captured the city.
Aldeenov talks about Sudzha to Chanel One television- contradicts reports. "The enemy cannot claim full control of Sudzha because the actually do not control it." He says there are Ukrainians in and around the town - active fighting is taking place. He said the Ukrainians do control some settlements in the Kursk region, but the number of their army means their numbers are scarce.TASS: They think that if 30 Ukrainians enter an area they control it, but then the Russians start squeezing the enemy out and will certainly go beyond that.
Mercouris: The area is huge and the Ukrainians don't have enough people. This is a heavily forested area, and the settlements are isolated. There are no well established front lines - the Russians are stabilizing around the plant.
Russian Ministry of Defense: drones and artillary strikes prevented Ukrainians from enterring deeper areas. Some of these areas are not on the map and are farms, farmsteads. 2 enemy groups on pickup trucks near Martinovka (near Sudzha)
ransmonote: Mercouris discusses who claims to control what area and I cannot spell any of the names of the towns, villages, farms etc.
After the Ministry of Defense published their remarks they showed a film of members of the Ukrainian 80th and 82nd air assault brigades being taken prisoner in the areas Mercouris just covered. The reports suggest the Ukrainians were trying to cut the R200 road from Kursk to Sudzha and the Russians are implying that they were unsuccessful. The Ukrainians contradict all this. Mercouris tends to find, with some exceptions, the Russian Ministry of Defense usually more accurate. There have been many failed Ukrainian attempts to reach the nuclear power plant.
THE Russian Ministry of Defense says losses were inflicted on located MANPAD hardware clusters of the Ukrainian army, the 22nd and 61st mechanized brigades, 92nd assault brigade, and First Presidential Operational brigade (28:13) and two of the towns listed are next to the border - very close. This appears to be where the bulk of the Ukrainian military is located.
Two Ukrainian 'spearhead' brigades, paratroopers of the 80th and of the 82nd air assault brigades have suffered such heavy losses that the Ukrainians are having to pull these two brigades out of the fighting in Kursk. That might explain why the First Presidential Operational Brigade, which is apparently a kind of guard unit normally located in Kyiv, although it has been engaged in fighting before, has now been deployed to this area because the Ukrainians are apparently suffering significant losses.
The Russian Defense Ministry lists locations of aviation strikes on Ukrainians (30:21) which I can't spell, but are all located in Sumy region. They list Ukrainian losses over the last 24 hours- up to 270 troops, 16 unites of armored hardware and other details here (30:48) including 18 prisoners from the 80th and 82nd 'spearhead' brigades.(Mercouris mentions there are photos of the paratrooper prisoners)
Mercouris says the losses are lower than yesterday. The armored vehicle losses are declining - this is consistent with what Aladeenov and another source have said - the Russians are specifically targeting the Ukrainian armored units and they have been 'locking them up' in signficant numbers (so fewer remain).Ministry of Defense (Rus) says since the beginnig of the Ukrainian attack on Kursk, the 'enemy has lost up to 2,300 troops (dead/wounded), 37 tanks (a number which Mercouris calls 'sizable'), 32 personelle carriers, 18 infantry fighting vehicles, 192 armored fighting vehicles, 88 motor vehicles, 4 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2 multiple launch rocket systems, and 15 field artillary guns (ransomnote: Let me know if lists of hardware are useful - they make my eyes glaze over otherwise because I cannot judge the importance/remaining resources.) "The operation to neutralize the Ukrainian presence is in progress."
The enigma about that report is that the Ukrainians also carried out a raid west of Sudzha (an area where Russians report taking prisoners). A large part of this force was ambushed (vehicles, armor - 150 men allegedly) suffered severe losses in Ghiri (phonetic spelling). Russia doesn't say much about this unsuccessful attack other than listing 3 towns where Ukrainians were captured). 34:45
THere's info about Russian brigade 810th separate Marine Brigade (Black Sea) was, according to Mercouris's memory, was stationed in Khereson and was withdrawn from that region mysteriously some days before the Ukrainians launched their attack over the border on Kursk. There was speculation as to why at the time. Mercouris notes this might be another indicator that the Russians had some warning that the Ukrainians were planning their attack (Mercouris notes in another video one of his reliable sources had told him Putin knew about the planned attack on Kursk) and this is why this very tough brigade of Russian marines was moved to the Kursk area. 36:07
This appears to be, apart from some tank units in Group of Forces North, the only regular Russian army formation which is engaging the Ukrainians in actual encounter battles in the Sudzha area. All of the rest of the fighting is being done by the (former) Wagner Organization, the Chechen forces commanded by General Aldeenov, varous militia units, and others.
There are plenty of pics showing Russian armored forces gathering in Kursk. Their priority is to secure the area around the nuclear power plant in Kursk.
Were the Russians aware that the Ukrainians were going to attack the power plant in advance, or were they taken by surprise? Mercouris wonders if there has been a difference in policy and Moscow - did the RUssians get a tipoff in advance of the planned attack on nuclear power plant, did Moscow's Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov ask the U.S./ Lloyd Austen if the Americans were planning this attack? Then Austen firmly denied involvement, and then the Americans contacted the Ukrainians and said, "Under no circumstances try anything like this if this is your plan"? Mercouris is speculating - we know the telephone call took place (Lloyd Austen/Belousov), but the MSM didn't say much and we don't know what they discussed, except the Russians gave the US a warning about what the Ukrainians were planning to do, and the US went out of its way to assure the Russians the US would not be involved and did not approve of the plan and was opposed to it. 39:40 So Mercouris speculates that the attack on the Kursk nuclear power plant was the plan the Russians discovered and asked Lloyd Austen/US about.
Some people in Moscow seem to have been reassured by the call with the US/Austen, and likely received further assurances from 3rd parties (China, India etc.) the political leadership in Moscow that this attack had now been called off. Mercouris speculates someone took these plans seriously and started moving regular Russian troops, Chechens, Marine brigade, Wagner, and maybe this person started taking these steps to defend the Kursk nuclear power plant without getting authorization from Moscow. This might explain the real anger on the part of Putin, and of the Chinese. 42:03 Maybe the CHinese asked the Ukrainians about these plans when their emmissary visited China recently, were assured the Ukraine was seeking peace/negotiations, and then the Chinese conveyed that and advised that Russia should back off a little. The Russians would not be likely to be reassured by the US, Lloyd Austen, but would be likely to be more reassured by countries they consider their allies (China). This speculation and guessing may explain what we've seen.
It's extremely unlikely the Ukrainians can still capture the power plant, they don't seem to have enough forces, and if Russian claims about Ukrainian losses are true (mercouris thinks they are), e.g., the withdrawal of two airbornne brigades, then the Ukraine is paying a very very heavy price for this operation.
There was a comment on a one of the Ukrainian Telegram channels (ransomnote: Oh c'mon! There's no way I can spell that name!! 44:20) saying the genius of this operation is that the Urkaine is arranging the destruction of its own reserves. Mercouris notes that might be what's happening.
There are reports (Ukrainian sources) that General Syrskyi is saying unofficially, through channels, that he was opposed to this operation, and thought it was a mistake. Mercouris says Syrskyi is fastening the blame on Zelensky, just as General Zyluszny (sp) did in the past.
Possibly the Ukrainians have occuppied Sudzha (population 5000), if so it's not an important battlefield gain. If they have not occupied Sudzha, then they have not been able to do much in the past 24 hours. If the Russian military report is to be believed, then Russians control various important villages close to Sudzha itself (Mercouris lists them about 10 to 12 of them). The area the Ukrainians have a presence (Sudzha) is becoming contained, there are no clear front lines, but the Ukrainians are still able to send men/machines around, but the front lines are gradually hardening and the Russians are consolidating their defenses, the Ukrainians are taking very heavy losses and their armor is being destroyed.
The main battle is not taking place in the Kursk region despite the media focus there. Russia's Group of Forces North are advancing in other places (areas of Karhkiv, Vovlchansk). 49:42 Mercouris describes the fighting - 5 attempts by Ukrainians to break through etc. The Russian Defense Ministry says a Polish mercenary was captured during the fighting. In Volchansk (sp) in the area of multi-story buildings, Russians took Ukrainian prisoners. Instead of moving troops from areas like Volchansk (sp) and Karhkiv to Kursk, the Russians remain in this area and are exerting pressure, advancing to capture those areas.
54:13 Group of Forces North say: actions of Ukrainian forces in Kursk region resemble those used by the Germans in 1941 (Operation Barbarosa June 22, 1941). The main task of the Germans was to cut into the depths of Russia without engaging in combat, then entrench and fight. In this way the enemy tried to break through (city name) and the nuclear power plant but has been repulsed and loses equipment and soldiers. Even staged clips from the Ukrainian information agencies with city signs look out of pan (fake pictures) 55:10. Victory will be ours. (then they quote Bismark) "Make alliances with anyone, start any kind of war, but never touch the Russians."
mercouris: Behind all the headlines in the west, one can perceive lots of doubt and uncertainty about this operation. NYT says the Americans clearly know exactly what the Ukrainians are up to. Worries are depenening, the Ukrainian losses are deepening in the Kursk region and they seem unable to break through and capture anything more than the odd village, but the Russians are making very real progress (Pokrovsk), where they have captured some villages. Ukrainian resistance near the area is crumbling.
57:48 The Russians appear to be around 7 kilometers from the area near Pokrovsk. Defense circles (Russian General Staff) have told TASS The enemy is not putting up any special resistance in Pokrovsk, and is quietly leaving nearby areas and is retreating elsewhere. The pace of Russian troop advances denies the Ukrainian army the chance to build fully fledged defenses. Grodovka (sp?) is about to fall. If it falls,t here's nothing between the Russian army and Myrnograd (sp?) and the Russians can continue their advance.
Prime Minister Modi was to visit Kyiv August 13 - latest reports suggest the trip is still on, and will probably arrive in Kyiv the 23rd. Mercouris wonnders if the trip was delayed because of the incursion.
About 6 weeks ago, Putin reluctantly set out the Russian conditions for negotiations: Ukraine had to pull out of the 4 regions, the absolute red line was that Ukraine was to commit itself to neutrality. The Russians are now telling everyone that they are no longer willing to negotiate, negotiations may be permanently off the table, that the Ukrainians can't be reasoned with. A Russian diplomat at the UN says negotiations are no longer on the table, at the very least it has put discussions with the Ukrainians on very long-term hold due to the terrorist attack in Kursk.
Holding talks with delusional people doesen't make sense, according to Putin. 103:03:03
From Pokrovsk, news of more Russian advances in Toretzk. Chasiv Yar - Pressure from the Russians is as intense as always.
If Pokrovsk falls, the Ukrainian forces in Donbas are cut in half, supply lines jeapordized.
Pictures suggest that the Russians have not been bombing buildings in Sudzha, where Ukrainians are located, and Mercouris wonders why..
(ransomnote: In a prior video either by Mercouris or his colleague Christoforou, one of them said there is a missile, warhead storage area south of the nuclear power plant. There was also talk of a main fuel (gas) hub in the area but I'm not sure if it was Sudzha)
ransomnote: Ukraine portion of the video ends around 1:07:20.
Also, what he says passes the sniff test more than what I hear from the ISW, CNN, NYT, WSJ, BBC, etc.
Still I would prefer it if I could find some news source that reported the failures and successes of both sides in the war. The closest I've come is Weeb Union who will report both Russian and Ukrainian successes, but despite this he does appear to be Russia-leaning. He bases his reporting on maps provided by Ukraine supporters so there is some balance there.
That was at the beginning of the SMO when Russia thought they had a deal with Zelensky and just needed to make a show of force to get Ukraine to submit.
Retreating from Kherson was the best idea, unlike what Ukraine did in failing to retreat from Bakhmut and losing so many troops in a losing cause.
There are reports overnight that the Ukrainians managed to target the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant with military weapons and actually damage the facility.
Several of the advance scout fast moving platoon sized elements were sent all over the Kursk area in multiple staggered times/directions in an attempt to reach the plant and cause damage in lieu of actual capture. Two nuke sabotage facility attemps in a 5 day period; multiple attempts in Kursk.
Zelinski and his crew are not going to be safe in England, Italy or the US, after they depart Kiev. They may be gone sooner than anyone realizes with this debacle.
Once the Kursk salient is contained and destroyed, Ukraine is going to get a taste of the gloves coming off by Russia.
August marks yet another decisive moment in the timeline of this war, another historic turning point. Nuclear terrorism.
Some people took issue with the terminology use and dismissed it. The legal framework of this Anti-terror Operation has expanded to Russia naming Zelinski, his advisors and inner circle, and the military officers and soldiers who executed these attacks as terrorists.
The Special Operation has become an Anti-Terrorist Operation. They didn’t take hostage nor capture Bin Laden, and for a long list of officials of Ukraine there is going to be a similar fate.
Russia believes that Ukraine has a dirty bomb where the radioactive materiels were product in the US, made by a process that the US exclusively uses, thus it can be traced.
There are also reports of Polish, English, Romanian, German and other unmentioned NATO country soldiers among the dead and captured which may shed more light. This may compliacate any NATO occupation of eastern Ukraine by military forces from it’s member states.
If you put the Ukrainian Government/Intelligence reporting side-by-side with the US/Britian it is like our MSM or 40 Black Churches reading off DNC propoganda talking points.
When you compare the Russian MOD to Ukraine, one proves to be much more accurate over time.
Ukraine is highly advanced in their PR warfare. They learned it from the best Psychological Operations Group in the US Army and from our Public Affairs training on the high side.
When the lies don’t work, double down, and remove elections to ensure a captive audiance.
Ukraine was nearly 40M people in 1991, and it is around 15M today - an unmitigated disaster of Obama’s and Biden’s making with 25M people leaving since 2014.
Created just in time to demoralize the Trump base.
quoted Bismark in their update: “Make alliances with anyone, start any kind of war, but never touch the Russians.”
—————
Alittle off of topic, interesting to note Bismarck and his government persecuted Christians, especially Catholics.
https://www.catholicculture.org/culture/library/view.cfm?recnum=8670
“ In a popular cartoon of 1875, the French artist and writer Felix Regamey lampooned the powerful Chancellor of Germany, Otto von Bismarck. In the cartoon, the Chancellor tries to pull a rope attached to St. Peter’s Basilica and declares to Satan that he intends to destroy the papacy. Satan replies, “I have been trying to do it all my life. If you manage it, I shall give you full marks.
Regamey’s cartoon was a humorous but biting expression of Catholic resentment and anger across Europe for one of the most forgotten events of the 19th century: the persecution and oppression of the Church at the hands of the German government under Kaiser Wilhelm I and his “Iron Chancellor” Bismarck. For a period of nearly 20 years, from 1871 to 1890, Catholics in the German Empire, especially in the German states of Prussia, Bavaria, Hesse, Baden, and occupied Poland, faced legal disabilities, imprisonment, and exile, all in the name of German national pride and unity. For their part, Catholics and Germans of good will fought for their rights, defended the Catholic faith and institutions, and above all, refused to allow a secular government to trample on the Holy See and their beloved pontiff Bl. Pius IX.…..much more.
unlike what Ukraine did in failing to retreat from Bakhmut and losing so many troops in a losing cause.
————
Keep in mind this is a war amongst Slavs. Common blood, brothers. History shows they are fierce fighters, both Russian and Ukrainian- they will both fight on to the end, regardless of casualties.
That said, the sheer manpower, wealth and manufacturing base of Russia dictates the Federation of Russia will “ win”, a Win being defined as the one who loses the least……attrition, plain and simple.
The Pentagon stating we have not seen a war this violent since WW2 says much.
Ukraine was nearly 40M people in 1991, and it is around 15M today - an unmitigated disaster of Obama’s and Biden’s making with 25M people leaving since 2014.
——————
Very true, but never reported by western MSM. Also of note, Ukraine’s infrastructure has been absolutely destroyed, very little electricity now available, Ukraine officially declaring bankruptcy this month, trade and manufacturing gone, male population decimated, labor pool decimated, the list is long.
The battlefield is not determining much of anything, a slugfest. The much more important factor is the economic side, Ukraine’s economy is broken and busted, on life support dependent solely Western $$$ and arms.
I’m giving no one a pass. If I posted a spurious account I’d warrant similar criticism.
It’s not just that the “reporter” has a very checkered past. It’s that he has been consistently wrong.
Just before the invasion he made a great point of deriding US intelligence that predicted it. That set a pattern of blinkered partisanship that is his trademark.
I don’t believe I have any “buddies in Ukraine,” but again, if and when I shared the view of a pro-Ukrainian toady, feel free to have at.
In the General/Chat forum, on a thread titled My notes on Ukraine part of VIDEO | Ukr Pokrovsk Crisis, Rus: No Talks Kiev; Alaudinov: Kursk NPP Ukr Target, Failed; Iran Rejects US , Widget Jr wrote: 1. Both sides in this war tend to look at their favorite sources, downplay source on the other side, and claim they are "winning". Both sides talk about what they say the other side is or is not talking about, which may or may not be accurate, as if that means anything. 2. Mercouris says Russian sources say Western source are not talking about the Kursk NPP. Googling Kursk nuclear power plant shows Western news is talking about the Kursk NPP. 3. The big picture of how the war or any individual part of it is going is not "my side is winning / their side is losing". Neither side has claimed victory nor admitted defeat.
Regarding Kursk:
4: The AFU rate of advance is slowing, not stopping.
5 And now for some interesting news. The general in charge of Russian forces in Kursk is Aleksandr Lapin. He was the general in charge of Kherson who failed to stop Ukraine from taking Kherson back. This is a bad omen for Russia.
- AFU units are digging in, which shows they intend to hold ground.
- Russia has not mounted its main counter action to the Kursk operation yet.
- Russia has not driven back or wiped out the AFU out of Kursk. No matter what the Russian information space says, operational AFU units are still in Kursk.
Should Russia eventually expel the AFU from Kursk, it is going a while.
1. Both sides say whatever, and then the Ukrainians are exposed for lying extensively, while the Russians are more accurate, but still have bias.
2. Mercouris was pointing to the relative silence among the elites and their MSM when the Ukrainian attack unfolded. The Ukraine and the elites were pretending Zelensky was not there to attack nuke plants. WHen they were exposed throughout commentators and social media, they began saying more - not just tour guide 'there's a nuclear plant there'.
3. There's more to the big picture. There's who has what assets (air support, number of troops, number that are trained versus conscripts, who has air superiority etc.) and how are their populations being affected? (most of Ukrainian power grid is gone). For example, Russia has 15 times the number of aircraft compared with the Ukraine.
4. Sadly, the Ukrainian troops are trapped. Putin repositioned some of his troops when he was warned in advance that the Ukrainians were planning an attack. 6 days into the fight and the Russians had not sealed the border and more Ukrainians were flooding in, even though Putin has the troops to seal it. Putin didn't slow Russian advances throughout the Donbas to seal the border, nor deploy some of his troops. He let more Ukrainians stream in. Because, its a trap and the Ukrainians are in it. Andnow that they're trying to destroy the nuclear power plant, the world has turned against them. Zelensky's replacement has already been selected. Because groups of mercenaries with the Ukrainian soldiers have been shooting at civilians, civilian cars/ambulances/fire trucks, Putin has declared the incursion domestic terrorism. This means the gloves are off - they will not be afforded the rights of Prisoners of War.
5. From my notes on Alex Christoforou's video: 3 years of this war, the collective West/Ukraine is still hanging on to the propaganda narrative of the 'great' Kherson and the 'great' Kharkiv counter-offensive' wherein the Ukrainians rushed in and grabbed territory that was empty (no Russian troops) and claimed 'victory'.
MY NOTES ON RUMBLE VIDEO: Burning tires at ZNPP? Elensky reinforces Kursk. Maduro amnesty for presidency. UK, big tech penalty (Zelensky)
RUMBLE.com ^ | 8/12/2024 | Alexander ChristoforouPosted on 8/12/2024, 3:30:47 PM by ransomnote
The Russian invasion of Ukraine started February 24, 2022. The Kharkiv counteroffensive was from September 6 to October 1, 2022. They Battle of Kyiv ended in April 2022 with the Russian withdrawal. Your version of the peace talks is mixing Russian statements about the negotiations from the start of the invasion to after the Kherson counteroffensive was finished.
An yes, Russia did indeed capture Bakhmut. That is undeniably true. How did spending eighteen months to capture sixteen square miles turn out? The Russian hype was capturing Bakhmut would either open up Eastern Ukraine to Chasiv Yar, Kramatorsk, and all the way to the Dnipro River. The Russian army would steamroll across Ukraine or force Zelensky to negotiate on Russian terms to end the war. I don't remember any of that happening. Do you?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.