Posted on 08/14/2024 6:51:26 AM PDT by MtnClimber
Among the great mythologies of recent years, one stands out above the rest, is that the world is in a “great energy transition.” Actually, the world IS in a dramatic energy transition. But it isn’t the one the Left wants it to be.
Despite hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars thrown at wind and solar power, we still get less than 10% of our energy from green sources. The needle really hasn’t moved at all over the past two decades. The more the government spends, the less we get per taxpayer dollar thrown at it. That’s the very definition of a falling stock.
The REAL energy transition is toward natural gas. A few weeks ago, the price of natural gas fell below $2 per MMBTU, the lowest price level for energy, after adjusting for inflation, in 20 years and probably ever in the history of mankind. Just a few years ago, the price in real dollars was four times higher.
As an experiment, I went to the grocery store to find out what a 16-ounce bottle of Evian water now sells at. The price I saw was $2.69 and can go as high as $3. This means natural gas is now less expensive than water.
This natural gas revolution has happened because of modern drilling technologies – including horizontal drilling and fracking. That technology keeps getting better and better and will continue to keep the price low for many decades to come. The pace of drilling technology improvement far outpaces the pace of depletion. In other words, for all intents and purposes, America’s natural gas supplies are limitless – a bottomless well.
Meanwhile, natural gas has all the attributes of a wonder fuel. It is abundant, made in America, clean-burning (using natural gas REDUCES carbon emissions), reliable and cheap.
(Excerpt) Read more at amac.us ...
This is misleading because with bottled water much of the cost is the bottle.
Yup Remember the headline under Trump?
Oil Now Cheaper Than Water
I thought it was a stupid comparison too. One BTU of natural gas is about 1 cubic foot. One million BTU would be about one million cubic feet. You could compare to one million cubic feet of water, but one is a gas and one is a liquid. It is still comparing apples and antelopes.
I’ll babble a bit more, not that anyone cares.
“Oil” is a word whose definition has changed in a technical way. There is a measurement that defines “oil” versus “lease condensate”. The latter is a less viscous liquid . . . thinner . . . that contains less diesel and kerosene (jet fuel) as constituent parts.
West Texas Intermediate used to have an API value of about 38. That was when western Texas conventional fields (conventional meaning not fracked) flowed oil with that measured value.
WTI is now 40. Much thinner because that region is mostly non conventional now. Fracked. “Light Tight Oil” Shale oil. It is not diesel rich. It is gasoline rich, which is a fine thing, but . . . it’s not the same liquid that we used to call “oil”.
And the threshold for declaring liquid to be oil rather than condensate used to be 40. It got raised to 45.
So, celebrations of new oil production records have some small footnotes — but some of this is not worth focus because to BP’s great credit, they do quote oil production as C&C — Crude and Condensate. And always have, so the new records quoted are pretty clean comparatively.
Exact numbers for gas, from the spreadsheet —
Misquoted above. Russia gas reserves are 37.4 Tcm
US 12.6 Tcm.
Be careful with gas. There is a media tendency to quote cubic feet rather than the universal cubic meters and this amplifies the numbers. US 12.6 Tcm is 445.6 Tcf.
Iran 32.1 Tcm. Qatar 24.7 Tcm. Turmenistan 13.6 Tcm. China 8 Tcm.
Note that the Reserves numbers have a methodology review underway. Because I am certainly not the first person to notice the numbers.
US production 1.03 Tcm per year (2023)
Russia about 0.59 Tcm per year
Iran about 0.25 Tcm per year (this gets called 250 billion)
Qatar about 0.18 Tcm per year
When you don’t have infinite amounts, one can celebrate production too loudly and one can certainly talk about LNG exports for God knows why.
In fact, they want nothing more than to turn America 🇺🇸 into the next Soviet Union permanently.
I can’t really research this on my phone. Will when I get to a computer.
What is the trend for US gas reserves ? Is it dropping by 1 TcM per year?
Coke-a-cola is more expensive than Gasoline, than Milk.
No one ever makes the price of Coke a campaign issue as they do with Gasoline... milk.
I have said for years that people are sometimes-single-issue-idiots because they will pay whatever the price for soda’s at the convience store/gas marts and whine about the gas price.
Been saying this for decades.
California had it all correct thirty (or forty) years ago - the state ran on a mix of nuke, hydro and nat gas, for electric generation, heating and industry. An ideal mix to permit both very low emissions of everything, including CO2, plus economic viability.
Maybe Ontario in Canada was about the same.
The US could have done this, but the left sabotaged everything they could, not least in CA.
The authors numbers are ridiculous but there is some truth to it:
A million BTU (MMBTU) is about 1000cuft of natural gas.
1000cuft of gas can be compressed to 12 gallons of liquid.
$2 for 12 gallons is definitely cheaper than bottled water. However that is still much more than tap water
The Great Fossil Fuel Hoax. How many decades have the Globalist perpetrated this hoax? Oh, the world is going to soon run out of ‘fossil’ fuel? What a BS scam, forcing humanity to freeze to death, forcing farmers to forego fertilizing their crops and using machines to produce the food for humanity, forcing people into stupid electric vehicles. Did you hear what Trump told Elon the other day? Our energy demands will soon double as AI’s demands for energy comes on line. This planet is blest by the Good Lord with an infinite supply of carbon based energy and it doesn’t come from decaying plant and animal matter. You are not supposed to know this truth because the Globalists want to control all your daily activities - get rid of energy and they can determine if you live or die. Therefore, your gas stove has to be trashed, don’t you know, get rid of your gas furnace and freeze your ass off, your gas water heater has to go - take cold showers instead, eat crickets instead of eating beef, and eventually they will drive you into the poor house where you will own nothing and, here’s the truth - — you will not be happy at all because everything you hoped for in life will have been taken from you.
My thoughts too!!!
In England remote cottages in the country have NG but in the USA Nooooooooo....
Not just the Lefties. The Righties can’t off shore industry fast enough.
From https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/units-and-calculators/
Btu content of common energy units (preliminary estimates for 20221
1 barrel (42 gallons) of crude oil produced in the United States = 5,684,000 Btu
1 gallon of finished motor gasoline (containing about 10% fuel ethanol by volume) = 120,214 Btu
1 gallon of diesel fuel or heating oil (with sulfur content less than 15 parts per million) = 137,381 Btu
1 gallon of heating oil (with sulfur content at 15 to 500 parts per million) = 138,500 Btu
1 barrel of residual fuel oil = 6,287,000 Btu
1 cubic foot of natural gas = 1,036 Btu
1 gallon of propane = 91,452 Btu
1 short ton (2,000 pounds) of coal (consumed by the electric power sector) = 18,820,000 Btu
1 kilowatthour of electricity = 3,412 Btu
>>
What is the trend for US gas reserves ? Is it dropping by 1 TcM per year?
>>
Reserves of oil and gas are variable, of course, and not purely from extraction (production). Reserves are an asset for companies that may own that piece of dirt and the SEC has regulations on what can and can’t be declared — which varies by the price of the product and all sorts of other things.
So it’s very weird how that world works. How much is underground varies an NOT by purely what is extracted. And also NOT purely by what is discovered. There may be no new discoveries, not a penny spent on exploratory drilling, and new reserves get declared. Note — and this is important — the whole world doesn’t use SEC rules. Most oil and gas in the world is under public land so there would be no reason for SEC rules on asset declaration to be in play.
As for trends —
US
Declines in the 1980s down 20% by 1994. Largely flat through the early 2000s as some Gulf of Mexico oil flowed (pre-shale gas usually was purely a by product of oil flow because with a low price it was too hard to make a profit on the cost of drilling purely for gas).
So 5.5ish Tcm reserves declining to 4.4 in 1994, holding at that level 1998. Easing up as new oil fields flowed up to 8 Tcm about 2010.
Then shale fracking started about 2012 and with that oil coming up also came gas, and consequent declarations of more reserves to be tapped, up to 12.6 Tcm as noted.
The trend is up via shale, which is showing signs of maxing out right about now.
p
Coal is about $6.50 per mmBtu on the coal futures market, without delivery cost.
I need a home appliance that coverts natual gas to butanol so I can fuel my car.
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