Allan Lichtman forecasts Harris win in November.

X ^ | 7/29/2024 | Colin Rugg

[Phoenix8]

NEW: Forecaster who has predicted almost every election since 1984, says Kamala Harris will likely win the election in November.

Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 & Biden in 2020, says his forecasts point to a Harris win.

Lichtman uses '13 keys' to make his predictions:

The "keys" are: – party mandate – contest – incumbency – third party – short-term economy – long-term economy – policy change, – social unrest – scandal – foreign/military failure – foreign/military success – incumbent charisma – challenger charisma

As of now, Harris has 6 keys and Trump only has 3.

Lichtman still has four keys to hand out but Harris is already at 6 meaning, in his own words, "a lot would have to go wrong for Democrats to lose."

Lichtman is waiting until the DNC to make his final prediction.

[bigdaddy45]

It’s a big country with a diverse voting base. Both statements are true.

[Armscor38]

“Why would “black women” vote for her. She isn’t “black”.”

Polls suggest Kamala is increasing her support amongst blacks, especially black women. Looking at her, what race do you think she is?

[MinorityRepublican]

Polls suggest Kamala is increasing her support amongst blacks, especially black women. Looking at her, what race do you think she is?

If I didn't know her, I'll think she's a light skinned Black woman. There are many people who looks like her. The average Black person is 73% Black, 24% White.